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TRY, I bond in Lira Turca

Imark

Administrator
Membro dello Staff
#1
I bond in valuta emergente, fra le quali TRY, piacciono molto all'obbligazionista retail per le le loro cedole, normalmente elevate anche quando l'emittente dei bond è di quelli ad alto rating. Meno popolari sono le fluttuazioni del cambio rispetto all'Euro, almeno nel caso in cui sia l'Euro ad apprezzarsi.

Numerosi sono i fattori che incidono sul cambio. Alcuni riguardano generalmente tutte le valute emergenti, ad es. si apprezzano contro quelle forti nelle fasi di allentamento delle politiche monetarie di FED, ECB, BoJ ecc, si deprezzano nelle fasi di varo di politiche monetarie più restrittive. Altre sono specifiche del paese che la emette, come fattori geopolitici (convolgimento in vicende belliche, crisi che determinino instabilità istituzionale, guerre civili) o gestione delle aspettative inflazionistiche da parte della banca centrale.

La Turchia vive una lunga fase di instabilità politica, con un tentato colpo di stato ed una successiva repressione politica che ha intaccato gli standard democratici del paese. L'irrisolto problema curdo minaccia di generare un coinvolgimento nella guerra siriana, con il terrorismo islamico che pure ha colpito spesso e danneggiato l'industria turistica del paese.

In più, la gestione delle aspettative inflazionistiche pare quella di chi tutto sommato preferisce lasciar correre l'inflazione. Il target di inflazione di fine anno è stato indicato dalla Banca centrale turca a novembre 2017 (al 70% di probabilità...) fra il 9,3% ed il 10,3% ed ipotesi mediana al 9,8%. Ed è risultato essere a fine dicembre al 12%. Come dire, non ci sono neanche andati vicino.

http://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/conn...-7bf05f76-6534-440d-93ec-11a71fa4cd46-m0iu.PH

https://tradingeconomics.com/turkey/inflation-cpi

I tassi sono decisamente inferiori all'inflazione e sono rimasti invariati nonostante la situazione manifestatasi a dicembre. Tanto, aveva previsto la banca centrale ancora a novembre, l'inflazione scenderà nel 2018.

http://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/conn.../announcements/press+releases/2018/ano2018-01

Il valore della TRY contro Euro si è quasi dimezzato negli ultimi 10 anni

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=EUR&to=TRY&view=10Y
 
#2
io sono farcito come un tacchino e sono pessimista come alzano i tassi queste vanno a 5 in un lampo (colpa di erdogan che non capisce nulla anzi forse meno forse era meglio se riusciva il colpo di stato che avrebbe tolto dalle scatole quel ignobile dittatore) visto che la banca centrale fa esattamente il contrario di quello che la logica dice.
 

Imark

Administrator
Membro dello Staff
#3
io sono farcito come un tacchino e sono pessimista come alzano i tassi queste vanno a 5 in un lampo (colpa di erdogan che non capisce nulla anzi forse meno forse era meglio se riusciva il colpo di stato che avrebbe tolto dalle scatole quel ignobile dittatore) visto che la banca centrale fa esattamente il contrario di quello che la logica dice.
La banca centrale tende a sottostimare costantemente l'inflazione attesa, i tassi sono ben al di sotto dell'inflazione e quindi non c'è una volontà reale di farla scendere.

La possibilità che le cose vadano meglio sul cambio sono legate ad un indebolimento dell'Eur piuttosto che ad un rafforzamento di Try, secondo me. Se l'euro si indebolisce, l'Eur/Try potrebbe stornare
 
#4
i fantocci della banca centrale fanno solo quello che vuole quel verme di erdogan che non capisce nulla ne di politica e ancor meno di economia. gli auguro per il bene della turchia di fare una brutta fine che sarebbe poi la giusta fine.
 

Imark

Administrator
Membro dello Staff
#5
L'ultimo mese ha visto movimenti laterali dell'Eur/Try sui valori alti raggiunti a fine anno scorso

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=EUR&to=TRY&view=1M

Va detto che il dato della inflazione turca a gennaio 2018 ha aiutato, rivelandosi il più basso degli ultimi mesi, al 10,35%.

https://tradingeconomics.com/turkey/inflation-cpi

In questo almeno la banca centrale turca pare averci visto giusto nelle stime di dicembre scorso.

La politica monetaria vede il tasso chiave,1 week repo rate, fissato all'8% lo scorso 18 gennaio.

Il prossimo meeting è al 7 marzo

http://www.centralbanknews.info/2018/01/update-2018-global-central-bank_13.html
 

Imark

Administrator
Membro dello Staff
#7
questo cambio non si ferma più, mi viene un dubbio che lo vogliono a 5
Quel tipo di movimento di prezzi può essere preludio ad un temporaneo storno dell'Eur e rafforzamento di Try.

Però dipende da tanti fattori, non solo relativa debolezza dell'Eur, ma anche dati macro turchi che aiutino la situazione (inflazione che continui a calare o rimanga stabile)
 

Magician

Well-known member
#9
ISTANBUL, May 1 (Reuters) - In an unexpected move, Standard & Poor’s cut its sovereign debt rating on Turkey further into junk territory on Tuesday, citing widening concern about the outlook for inflation amid a sell-off in the Turkish lira currency.

S&P said the ratings decision, cutting Turkey to “BB-/B” from “BB/B,” was not part of its regularly scheduled reviews, reflecting what it said were growing concerns.

“The downgrade reflects our concerns over a deteriorating inflation outlook and the long-term depreciation and volatility of Turkey’s exchange rate,” S&P said in a statement.

“The rating action also reflects our concerns over Turkey’s deteriorating external position and rising distress in the externally leveraged private sector.”

The agency said it did not believe the central bank hiking its late-liquidity window rate last week would be sufficient to bring down inflation to the state-lender’s 5 percent target or reduce the volatility in Turkey’s real effective exchange rate.

The bank’s reluctance to aggressively tighten policy in the face of double-digit inflation has increased concern that it is under pressure from Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan. S&P alluded to that in its statement, saying the central bank has been “facing increasing political pressure.”

With the weakening of the lira against the dollar, the private sector will have a harder time repaying its foreign currency-denominated debt, S&P said, adding this would negatively impact government debt - 40 percent of which is denominated in foreign currency.

Numerous large Turkish companies have sought to restructure their debts. Reuters reported in April that Turkish food giant Yildiz Holding would restructure $6.5 billion of its $8.5 billion in debt.

Turkey’s Dogus Holding, with outstanding loans that stood at 23.5 billion Turkish lira ($5.73 billion) at the end of 2017, is also in talks with banks on debt restructuring, according to sources familiar with the matter.

“Our downgrade reflects our view that there is a risk of a hard landing for Turkey’s overheating, credit-fueled economy,” S&P said.

$1 = 4.1015 Turkish lira Reporting by David Dolan; writing by Ali Kucukgocmen; editing by Peter Graff and Tom Brown

Our Standards:The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.


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The U.S.-based credit rating agency Standard & Poor's (S&P) said Tuesday that Turkey ratings lowered on deteriorating external performance and higher inflation, adding that the outlook was stable.

S&P lowered Turkey's sovereign credit rating to BB- from BB, raising outlook to stable from negative.

"Our downgrade reflects our view that there is a risk of a hard landing for Turkey's overheating, credit-fueled economy," the agency said in a statement.

The statement said that Turkey's macroeconomic imbalances, mainly a deteriorating current account and fiscal deficit, as well as high inflation, are "building up", adding that the exchange-rate depreciation and volatility are "a risk to Turkey's financial stability."

"Signs of distress in the private sector are starting to show, and capital outflows and the lira's depreciation may accelerate this trend," S&P said.

The U.S.-based agency said that the stable outlook on Turkey balances risks from what S&P sees as overheating economy and growing macroeconomic imbalances, adding that it could lower Turkey ratings if external financing conditions, Turkey's exchange rate deteriorate further and eventually lead to an increase in vulnerabilities in the country's private sector.

Turkey's economy is the fastest growing in the Group of Twenty but it is haunted by an uncertain long-term outlook.

Turkey recorded stellar growth of 7.4 percent in 2017 but the data have failed to douse fears over the underlying health of the economy which is marked by double-digit inflation, a wide current account deficit, a weak currency and high corporate debt.

Inflation is at 10.23 percent, double the central bank's official target of five percent. The central bank last week raised its main interest rate more than expected to try to contain the pressures.

But S&P said, "We think these steps will be insufficient to reduce by much the gap between inflation (at 11.1 percent last year) and the central bank's five percent medium-term target, or to reduce the volatility of Turkey's real effective exchange rate."

"The central bank, which has been facing increasing political pressure, has not met its inflation target since 2012
https://www.dailysabah.com/economy/2018/05...nal-performance
 

Magician

Well-known member
#10
Turkey’s currency hit another record low against the dollar on the morning of May 3 after official data showed inflation rose higher than expected in April.

The lira, one of the worst performing emerging market currencies this year, weakened to a record low of 4.2487 against the dollar, from the May 2 close of 4.1785. It was at 4.2005 at 0705 GMT.

The consumer price index exceeded forecasts by climbing 1.87 percent month-on-month in April, the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK) said, for a rise of 10.85 percent year-on-year, driven by significant increases in clothing and transportation prices.

Core “C” CPI inflation was 12.24 percent year-on-year, up from 11.44 percent on a year-on-year basis.

The highest monthly increase was 10.4 percent in clothing and footwear in April, according to TÜİK data.

In April, the indices rose by 3.54 percent for transportation and by 2.32 percent for miscellaneous goods and services.

The highest monthly decrease was in food and non-alcoholic beverages, which fell by 0.21 percent.

The highest annual increase was 16.75 percent in furnishing and household equipment.

Transportation prices rose by 16.45 percent and clothing and footwear by 12.03 percent in the same period.

Producer prices rose 2.6 percent month-on-month in April for an annual rise of 16.37 percent.

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/tu...ainst-dollar-after-poor-inflation-data-131245
 

Magician

Well-known member
#11
ISTANBUL, May 4 (Reuters) - Turkey’s lira tumbled 1.5 percent to a record low against the dollar on Friday on nagging worries about the central bank’s ability to rein in double-digit inflation and as the U.S. currency made broad gains.

Inflation climbed to almost 11 percent in April, data showed on Thursday, stoked by the lira’s fall against the dollar, now more than 11 percent this year.

Standard & Poor’s exacerbated the currency’s losses when it cut Turkey’s sovereign debt rating further into junk territory on Tuesday.

Accelerating prices are Turkey’s most pressing economic problem, and a growing worry for President Tayyip Erdogan and his ruling AK Party as they head into elections on June 24.

Erdogan, a self-described “enemy of interest rates”, has repeatedly called for lower borrowing costs to fuel loan growth and boost the economy. The central bank’s reluctance to tighten has stoked concerns that it is under political pressure.

The lira was at 4.2880 against the dollar by 0955 GMT after hitting 4.2901, its lowest on record. It is one of the worst performing emerging market currencies this year.

Pressure on the lira reflected foreign selling of bonds and bank shares, as well as questions over the timing of the central bank’s steps to tame inflation, BNP Paribas/TEB Investment strategist Isik Okte said.

“I do not think the central bank can wait until its June meeting in terms of a rate hike and simplifying (policy) with funding through a single rate after the much higher than expected core inflation data,” he said.

Last week, the bank raised its top interest rate by a more-than-expected 75 basis points but analysts said it would need to do more to fight inflation and support the currency. Its next policy-setting meeting is on June 7.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year bond rose to 13.70 percent, a rise of 77 basis points in the last two days. The benchmark 2-year bond rose to 15.28 percent from 15.00 percent on Thursday.

The main BIST 100 share index fell 0.9 percent to 101,984.83 points. (Writing by Daren Butler Editing by David Dolan)

https://www.reuters.com/article/turkey-cur...1SB1N2?rpc=401&
 

Imark

Administrator
Membro dello Staff
#12
Sul piano dell'analisi tecnica per Eur/Try, evidenzio un possibile doppio massimo in arrivo sul timeframe daily dopo divergenza ribassista del RSI. Analoga divergenza su timeframe settimanale. Però l'analisi tecnica è solo uno degli strumenti applicabili... vedremo se si rivelerà concorde con le scelte di politica monetaria adottate dalla BC turca

https://invst.ly/7cz-8
 

Magician

Well-known member
#13
Restriction of foreign-currency borrowing after lira plunge, spells concern by Turkish authorities

The ban on Turkish residents from borrowing foreign currency from foreign lenders unless they have foreign-currency income to offset it, following the Turkish lira hitting an all-time low on Friday, demonstrates a great level of concern by the Turkish administration, Asia times website reported.

The new regulation, effective as of May 2., was published by Mondaq as follows:

“Turkish individuals are prohibited to obtain any foreign-currency denominated loans and foreign-currency indexed loans from Foreign Lenders”

Banks and finance companies are an exception to this rule, as ‘’Turkey finances a substantial part of its current-account deficit through interbank loans,’’ the site explained, while noting that that was indicative of how worried the Turkish authorities are about the plunge the country’s currency has taken.

The lira’s record breaking low coincided with including the S&P Global Ratings downgrade of Turkish lira to BB-/B, Asia times said.

The Turkish lira saw a low of 4.29 per dollar on Friday after consumer price inflation climbed to 10.9 percent in April from 10.2 percent in March.

Turkey’s current inflation, currently in the double digits, hints at trouble for President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s leading Justice and Development Party (AKP) who have always taken pride in and maintained support through steering Turkey’s economy.

https://ahvalnews.com/turkish-econo...wing-after-lira-plunge-spells-concern-turkish
 
#14
la scelta di diversificare e puntare una piccola parte del capitale sulla TRY si è rivelato uno dei miei peggiori investimenti, avevo preventivato forti oscillazioni della valuta, ma non avevo preso in considerazione il fattore geopolitico, non ho la sfera di cristallo, e non potevo certo immaginare la nascita del califfato in Siria, i cambi di linea politica, e l'islamizzazione della società imposta da Erdogan, che, hanno compromesso il quadro generale del paese che, fino a qualche anno fa, erano tutto sommato "accettabili" in rapporto ai rendimenti offerti.
 

Magician

Well-known member
#16
Turchia sotto pressione...



Stress in Turkish bond market as investors flock to dollar

Turkey’s bond market is showing signs of stress as investors flock to the safety of the dollar.

Margins between the bid and offer price of Turkish bonds are widening and volume is decreasing, wrote Uğur Gürses, a columnist for the Hürriyet newspaper.

Foreign investors who bought Turkish debt are now complaining about margins widening and are hedging with foreign exchange, citing risks associated with the lira, Gürses said.

Turkish bonds have sunk to record lows this week after the lira continued to lose value against the dollar and other major currencies. Yields on 10-year debt rose to 14 percent, while the two-year bond saw yields above 16 percent. The central bank has remained silent as the lira fell, even as investors called on its policymakers to increase interest rates.

The central bank should have met at the weekend for an emergency meeting of its monetary policy committee, Gürses said. Instead, it announced on Monday that it was increasing liquidity in the currency market by $2.2 billion. The move has done nothing to arrest the currency’s decline.

The central bank is saying it can’t raise interest rates, so it wanted to try and calm the currency market through other means, Gürses said. What the bank needs to do is increase the interest rate for its late liquidity window – currently 13.5 percent – by at least 250 basis points, he said.

Inflation data for April showed prices for 299 of 407 goods increasing, unprecedented since 2003, Gürses said. The slide in the lira over the last eight days will add about 1 percentage point to inflation, which already stands at 10.9 percent, he said.
https://ahvalnews.com/turkish-bonds/stress-turkish-bond-market-investors-flock-dollar
 

Imark

Administrator
Membro dello Staff
#17
Usd/Try molto tirato. Almeno un paio di mesi di sosta, anche ove continuasse il trend attuale, l'Usd dovrebbe farli
 

Magician

Well-known member
#18
Turkish lira extends low raising alarm for economy

Turkey’s embattled lira extended a record low on Wednesday with no central bank action in sight as the government prepared for early elections.

The lira fell to as low as 4.3741 per dollar in Istanbul. It dropped 0.4 percent to 4.3493 at 10:36 a.m.

Turkey’s central bank has its hands tied after Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan called snap polls for June 24. Erdoğan opposes higher interest rates, claiming that they are inflationary, in contravention of traditional economic theory. Turkey’s inflation rate has surged into double figures in recent months and remained there as his government embarked on an economic stimulus program to boost growth and manufacturing output.

Cemil Ertem, Erdoğan’s senior economic adviser, said on Tuesday that high interest rates are the enemy of the economy and the government is determined to allow the lira to float freely, in a sign that it opposes any move by the central bank to intervene and prop up the currency.

"There's got to be talk of an emergency monetary policy committee meeting to try and stabilise the lira?" said Tim Ash, senior emerging markets strategist at Blue Bay Asset Management in London. "Does Erdoğan care where the lira is?"

The lira has sank about 13 percent against the dollar since the start of the year, falling 5 percent last week alone in the biggest decline in major emerging markets. The International Monetary Fund and Standard & Poor’s, which cut Turkey’s debt one notch to BB-, two steps below investment grade, on May 1, have called on Turkey to tighten monetary policy, warning that tax cuts and loan guarantees have led to economic overheating and a deterioration in inflation and the currency.

Fellow emerging market Argentina has taken decisive steps to arrest a decline in its peso and rein in inflation, which stands at 26 percent. Its central bank raised interest rates by 675 basis points to 40 percent last week. The government said on Tuesday it was seeking an International Monetary Fund loan accord to rescue the currency and avoid a financial crash.

Turkey completed a series of IMF loan accords in 2008. Since then, Erdoğan and his advisers have criticized the fund for following outdated economic policies that don’t match the needs of emerging markets. Turkey was forced into rescue deals with the IMF in 1999 and 2002 – it has agreed a total of 19 standby accords since 1961 -- after interest rates surged and the currency slumped.

https://ahvalnews.com/turkish-lira/turkish-lira-extends-low-raising-alarm-economy
 

Imark

Administrator
Membro dello Staff
#19
Grafico orario Usd/Try, -1,1% in un'ora.

Non è detto non faccia nuovi massimi nel corso del mese, dopo aver smaltito un po' di ipercomprato. Poi però anche una pausa sui timeframe lunghi è nel novero del probabile, anche ove ripartisse verso l'alto dopo la pausa

https://invst.ly/7edrp
 

Imark

Administrator
Membro dello Staff
#20
Timeframe daily, ora -1,3%, ieri Rsi 5 a 93, non sostenibile. Ma molto tirato anche su base settimanale e mensile. Guardando al pregresso, con l'andamento di maggio dovrebbe fare un top analogo a quello delle ultime due salite, poi quantomeno consolida per un po', Imho
 

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