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Wind Tre e i bond senior secured (3 bond in Eur, 1 in Usd)

Imark

Administrator
Membro dello Staff
Ci sono opinioni contrastanti. Qualcuno ritiene che future notizie sull'impatto sui conti di Wind Tre dell'arrivo del nuovo player Iliad possano fare scendere ulteriormente i costi (in rettifica: i prezzi), altri ritengono che una ulteriore discesa possa essere determinata dalle aste sulle frequenze.

Sarebbe anche lecito chiedersi quante cattive notizie siano già scontate nei prezzi e nei rendimenti attuali. In ogni caso, sono notizie che arriveranno in tempi non lunghissimi, e a quel punto l'impatto reale sui prezzi potrà essere verificato sul momento.
Memo per tutti: non sempre cercare lo 0,5% in più di rendimento a scadenza paga. Talvolta, a guardare il 10% del bicchiere vuoto, si rischia di perdere di vista il restante 90% del bicchiere, quello pieno
 

Imark

Administrator
Membro dello Staff
E ieri quello del negozio di telefonini non mi ha detto nulla...
:mad::D
Oh, venisse mai fuori una Bloomberg, una CNBC, una Marketwatch, una quello che ti pare che ti dicesse per tempo: guarda, c'è un interessamento di Hutchinson Wampoa a rilevare l'altro 50% di Wind Tre... :D:D

Allora dai cani da guardia del giornalismo finanziario mai un guaito fuori posto...
 
M

Merovingio

Guest
Peccato, occasione persa per chi non era ancora entrato
Come sempre... bisognerebbe avere la sfera di cristallo. In ogni caso, per me la view non cambia: il mercato italiano è super saturo e Wind farà fatica a fare margini (e utili) sul mobile. Vediamo che combinano i cinesi, ma temo si tratti solo di affari di alta finanza. Del resto Wind ha cambiato diverse volte di mano in questo senso: Enel, Sawiris, Vimpelcom, ora Hutchinson al 100%.
 

Magician

Well-known member
Commento di un analista Unicredit di un paio di giorni fa

Wind Tre (Hold)
Yesterday, CK Hutchison announced that it agreed to buy Veon’s 50% stake in Wind Tre (B1s/BB-n/B+p) for EUR 2.45bn. One important question is how rating agencies will react to this transaction.
After speaking to S&P and Moody’s, we got the impression that a rating transfer from CK Hutchison to Wind Tre is unlikely, unless CK Hutchison provides a full unconditional guarantee for Wind Tre’s debt, which we regard as rather unlikely. Hence, our understanding is that rating agencies might raise the rating (S&P up to three notches and Moody’s up to two notches) for the implicit shareholder support. We note that the evaluation of the shareholder support is somewhat subjective and dependent on the commitment of CK Hutchison to Wind Tre, and therefore might differ between the rating agencies. For example, S&P currently already grants Wind Tre’s rating an uplift of one notch to BB-, as it views Wind Tre as having a “moderate strategic” status for CK Hutchison. Given the expected 100% ownership of Wind Tre, it is possible that S&P will regard Wind Tre as “strategically important” for CK Hutchison (leading to another one notch uplift) or even as a “highly strategic” subsidiary (leading to another two notch uplift). In our view, Wind Tre might fulfill S&P’s criteria for becoming a “strategically important”, but not a “highly strategic” subsidiary. To summarize, we regard it as possible that Wind Tre might be upgraded by one notch by Moody’s and S&P if the proposed acquisition of a 50% stake in Wind Tre by CK Hutchison from Veon is approved and successfully completed (which we expect). We note that, even in the case of a full and unconditional guarantee by Hutchison, a rating transfer might be limited by the Italian country rating of Baa2cwn/BBBs/BBBs (or even one notch lower).
Hence, the company’s operating performance will still be important for Wind Tre’s rating going forward. In this regard, we note that, according to press headlines, ZTE lost the contract to supply Wind Tre’s mobile network upgrade and that Ericsson will take over this EUR 600mn contract. We mentioned in the past that there is uncertainty about how much of the already provided equipment by ZTE can be used and maintained by Ericsson and how much additional cost is incurred by this change in telecom equipment provider. Moreover, this supply change will likely lead to a meaningful delay of Wind’s network upgrade, which could affect is competitiveness.
Yesterday, WINTRE bonds jumped up 12-13 cash points due to the proposed sole shareholder CK Hutchison, but despite some initial euphoria, which saw the bonds for a time already priced close to par, bonds ended the day trading in the low-to-mid nineties. This indicates that it is currently difficult for investors (as well as for us) to define the “fair value” of WINTRE bonds. On the one hand, Wind Tre now has one financially strong shareholder, highly rated, who is obviously convinced of the Wind Tre business case and willing to invest another EUR 2.45bn into Wind Tre. Hence, it appears unlikely that liquidity will become a major credit driver, as this should be steered by the parent, despite the upcoming spectrum auction and maybe higher-than-expected capex for the mentioned potential supplier change. On the other hand, Wind Tre will, in our view, not be rated higher than BB and operational weakness, due to the market entry of Iliad, could pressure Wind Tre’s rating in the future. Moreover, although liquidity might not be a major topic, the spectrum auction and the supplier change might increase indebtedness and leverage. Hence, the company’s operating challenges have not changed, while Wind Tre will have support from its sole owner in the future to solve and/or to cope with those. We keep our hold recommendation on the name.
 
tengo d'occhio questo bond da qualche giorno. Come mai la caduta di oggi con volumi alti? Ci sono notizie negative?

è possibile che dipenda da Moody's che sostiene che wind sarebbe penalizzata da Iliad?
Chiedo lumi e ringrazio
 
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Imark

Administrator
Membro dello Staff
tengo d'occhio questo bond da qualche giorno. Come mai la caduta di oggi con volumi alti? Ci sono notizie negative?

è possibile che dipenda da Moody's che sostiene che wind sarebbe penalizzata da Iliad?
Chiedo lumi e ringrazio
Stavo cercando la caduta, non trovo niente che stia cadendo. Il 2025 ha midprice attorno ai 94,5, il 2023 un pelo sotto i 96. Rammento che i due bond hanno fatto minimo attorno agli 80/100 poche settimane fa
 

Imark

Administrator
Membro dello Staff
Poiché è confermato l'acquisto al 100% da parte di Hutchison, che ha rating elevato, per me eventuali piccoli movimenti possono forse essere dovuti alla concorrenza di Iliad, forse all'andamento dei temi speculativi legati all'Italia come asset class, ma sono probabili occasioni per lucrare qualche figura.

Non risulta peraltro, da quanto leggo, che Hutchison intenda avere Wind Tre "ringfenced", ossia non fornire supporto parentale in caso di difficoltà. Emerge anzi l'intenzione opposta, di una piena integrazione nel loro business

https://www.ft.com/content/146f4acc-7e7a-11e8-bc55-50daf11b720d

Eventuali difficoltà potrebbero insorgere nell'ottenere l'ok dei regolatori ? Dubito, ne controllavano già il 50% e non mi pare ci siano situazioni pregiudizievoli determinate dal controllo totalitario...
 
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Magician

Well-known member
Grazie a Waltermasoni

Announcement: Moody's: Iliad's move into Italian market is credit negative for mobile companies
18 Jul 2018
Madrid, July 18, 2018 -- French telecoms company Iliad's entry into the Italian mobile phone market will aggravate competition and shrink mobile service revenues of the three resident mobile operators -- Wind Tre S.p.A. (B1 stable), Telecom Italia S.p.A. (Ba1 stable) and Vodafone Group Plc (Baa1 review for downgrade) -- by an average 4%-6% per year for the next two years, says Moody's Investors Service in a report published today.

Moody's report, "Telecommunications -- Europe: Italian mobile operators feel the heat from French newcomer Iliad," is available on www.moodys.com. Moody's subscribers can access this report via the link provided at the end of this press release. The rating agency's report is an update to the markets and does not constitute a rating action.

"The largest mobile operators say that they don't plan to undercut Iliad in an effort to protect their higher-priced customer bases. However, there have been significant price cuts and sales promotions since Iliad's entry, on top of the sharp price per Gigabyte (Gb) declines of up to 60% over the last year, which increases the risk of a price war," says Laura Perez, Vice President -- Senior Credit Officer at Moody's.

"Wind Tre and virtual operators competing in lower-cost segments will be hit the hardest by the tougher competition. Larger operators Telecom Italia and Vodafone are somewhat more insulated given their position in higher-end segments of the market and better-quality networks," adds Mrs Perez.

We expect Wind Tre's mobile service revenue to fall by a significant 8%-9% annually to around EUR3.5 billion in 2019, resulting in reported EBITDA falling by 5%-6%. Telecom Italia's and Vodafone's mobile service revenues, in Italy, will fall by around 4%-5% per year until 2019 and their EBITDA will grow by 0%-1% and 3%-4% respectively.

Despite Iliad's consumer offer being aggressive it will not severely disrupt the market like it did in France, even if it is lower than certain existing providers' prices. Wind Tre, Telecom Italia's low-cost brand Kena Mobile, and Vodafone's ho mobile are offering at least 20 Gigabyte for headline prices (including activation fees) between €10 and €17, more or less similar prices to Iliad at €0.5-€0.7 per Gb.

Moody's expects Iliad to gain around 5% to 7% mobile market share over 2018-20, but sharply falling prices will make it much tougher for the company to reach a reasonably scalable market share in excess of 10%.

Brand differentiation and mobile/fixed convergence could be used to combat Iliad, with Vodafone and Telecom Italia most strongly positioned with a differentiated brand strategy, in which their low-cost brands target value segments of the market. Telecom Italia is also well-placed to accelerate convergence of mobile and fixed line products because it is the only fully integrated telecoms company in Italy.

Subscribers can access the report at: https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcon...cid=PBC_1124492
 

Imark

Administrator
Membro dello Staff
Grazie a Waltermasoni

Announcement: Moody's: Iliad's move into Italian market is credit negative for mobile companies
18 Jul 2018
Madrid, July 18, 2018 -- French telecoms company Iliad's entry into the Italian mobile phone market will aggravate competition and shrink mobile service revenues of the three resident mobile operators -- Wind Tre S.p.A. (B1 stable), Telecom Italia S.p.A. (Ba1 stable) and Vodafone Group Plc (Baa1 review for downgrade) -- by an average 4%-6% per year for the next two years, says Moody's Investors Service in a report published today.

...

"Wind Tre and virtual operators competing in lower-cost segments will be hit the hardest by the tougher competition. Larger operators Telecom Italia and Vodafone are somewhat more insulated given their position in higher-end segments of the market and better-quality networks," adds Mrs Perez.

We expect Wind Tre's mobile service revenue to fall by a significant 8%-9% annually to around EUR3.5 billion in 2019, resulting in reported EBITDA falling by 5%-6%. Telecom Italia's and Vodafone's mobile service revenues, in Italy, will fall by around 4%-5% per year until 2019 and their EBITDA will grow by 0%-1% and 3%-4% respectively.

....

Subscribers can access the report at: https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcon...cid=PBC_1124492
A spanne niente di particolarmente nuovo rispetto alle stime di pochi mesi, già postate nel 3D. Mi pare abbiano rivisto al ribasso di qualcosa la stima di risultato proprio di Wind Tre, e ci stava, stanti i risultati degli ultimi trimestri.

E tuttavia, secondo me, una volta integrata in Hutchison, rating A2 per Moody's - immutato per effetto dell'acquisizione - sposterà poco

https://www.moodys.com/research/Moo...ted-by-acquisition-of-remaining-50--PR_386128
 
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