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Energy, Oil & Gas: seguire l'andamento del petrolio, del gas e delle energy companies

loriamen

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E.......aproposito di gas.................da: NatGas Weather:

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Friday: Oct’21 nat gas futures were nearly 20¢ lower early Thursday, then spiked 35¢ higher in a violent move at the official session open before selling back off to close 15¢ lower, aided by a bearish EIA storage report miss. This was the second week in a row the EIA storage miss was to the bearish side, suggesting the supply/demand balance isn’t as tight as previous weeks. Little change in the overnight GFS and EC weather data, which also means they both held the loss of more than 10 CDDs since the start of the week. This keeps the coming US pattern neutral/seasonal for the next 4-days, then quite bearish for the 5-15 day period as most of the US experiences perfect highs of 70s and 80s besides locally hotter 90s across the Southwest and cooler 60s over the N. Plains. Graph above is from our overnight Live HDD/CDD data and highlights the GFS and EC with very light demand days 5-15, even though subtle differences.

Buon Week-End a TUTTI!!!
 

loriamen

Moderatore
Membro dello Staff
A conferma di quanto detto sopra a proposito di WTI:

Oil Set For A Weekly Gain As Global Energy Prices Surge​

By Tsvetana Paraskova - Sep 17, 2021, 10:00 AM CDT

Oil prices were headed for a fourth consecutive weekly gain early on Friday as natural gas and power prices are surging globally and supporting the energy complex.

Early on Friday, however, the price of oil was slightly down due to a stronger U.S. dollar and to profit-taking after oil prices settled at a seven-week high on Wednesday.

As of 9:11 a.m. EDT on Friday, WTI Crude was down 0.36% at $72.35 and Brent Crude traded down 0.15% at $75.55.

Oil prices started rising this week thanks to a bullish report from OPEC on Monday. The surge of the Delta variant is set to partially delay oil demand recovery into the next year when robust economic growth and stronger recovery in fuel consumption will see global oil demand averaging 100.8 million barrels per day (bpd) and exceeding pre-COVID levels, OPEC said, raising its 2022 demand forecast by a shocking 900,000 bpd.
Large inventory draws in crude and gasoline stocks in the United States further drove prices higher on Wednesday, when they settled at their highest levels since the end of July.

The overall rally in global energy prices has also supported the price of oil this week.

“The energy sector, including natural gas, is heading for its fourth weekly gain and highest weekly close in seven years. Tighter market conditions, led by Hurricane Ida disruptions to crude oil and natural gas production, have triggered fresh breakouts and technical buying from funds,” Saxo Bank said in a Friday note.

“Demand is also improving as the Covid impacts fade once again, a development that led to IEA to forecast surging demand into yearend,” the bank’s strategists added.

“With Brent and WTI futures having baked in the week’s most bullish development — a second consecutive weekly plunge in US oil stocks across crude and refined products — with seven-week high settlements on Wednesday, prices need a new impetus to pick the next direction,” consultancy Vanda Insights said early on Friday.
 

loriamen

Moderatore
Membro dello Staff
E.....sempre a proposito di OIL, AGGIUNGO:

Le prospettive per il mantenimento delle sanzioni sulle esportazioni di greggio iraniano sono favorevoli ai prezzi del greggio. Il nuovo governo iraniano continua ad aumentare la produzione di uranio arricchito e non è riuscito a riprendere la piena cooperazione con gli osservatori internazionali. L'Agenzia internazionale per l'energia atomica ha recentemente affermato che l'Iran ha aumentato le sue scorte di uranio arricchito vicino ai livelli necessari per le armi e continua a limitare il monitoraggio delle strutture e le indagini sulle attività non dichiarate.
E.....Un calo del greggio globale immagazzinato sulle petroliere in tutto il mondo è rialzista per i prezzi del greggio. Vortexa lunedì ha affermato che il petrolio greggio immagazzinato su navi cisterna che sono state ferme per almeno sette giorni nella settimana terminata il 10 settembre è sceso dell'-8,9% p/p a 94,96 milioni di barili.
Di contro c'è che la National Oil Corporation libica ha dichiarato giovedì che le proteste nei porti orientali di greggio Es Sider e Ras Lanuf sono terminate, consentendo alle operazioni di esportazione di tornare alla normalità.
 
Ultima modifica:

loriamen

Moderatore
Membro dello Staff
Ed.......ancora sull'OIL:

As of September 14, the open interest on crude oil contracts traded on the NYMEX increased by 37,459 contracts to 2,145,165 compared to last week which is below the 1-year average of 2,230,337. Oil investors remain optimistic about the commodity's prospects as the total number of long contracts outnumber short contracts by 258,231 with 82% of total contracs being long. Moreover, compared to last week, the percentage of long contracts has increased suggesting that invesotrs are increasingly confident in continued strength in the sector.
 

loriamen

Moderatore
Membro dello Staff
Posizioni sul Gas Naturale:

As of September 14, the open interest on natural gas contracts traded on the NYMEX decreased by -37,113 contracts to 1,429,777 compared to last week which is above the 1-year average of 1,257,902. Natural gas investors remain optimistic about the commodity's prospects as the total number of long contracts outnumber short contracts by 78,682 with 58% of total contracs being long. However, compared to last week, the percentage of long contracts has decreased suggesting that investors are reducing long exposure in anticipation of a pullback.
 

loriamen

Moderatore
Membro dello Staff
E.......sempre a proposito di GAS:

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Tuesday: The overnight weather data had both the GFS and EC lose 1-2 TDDs for next week, although viewed as little changed as both forecast a solidly bearish pattern the next 15-days, likely longer as most of the US experiences perfect highs of upper 60s to mid-80s and with coverage of 90s decreasing considerably and confined to areas of California, the Southwest, and southern Texas. How long this comfortable US pattern lasts is of great interest since it will result in much larger builds into supplies until more impressive cold arrives, which we don’t see opportunity for until near or after October 7th at the earliest. The tropics remain active with Tropical Storms Peter and Rose in the Atlantic but with steering currents favored to keep them away from the US mainland. Graph above is from our Live HDD/CDD data and shows the lowest HDD/CDD totals of the past 4-5 months for very light demand.
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loriamen

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Membro dello Staff

U.S. Oil Rig Count Jumps As Crude Prices Near 3-Year High​

By Julianne Geiger - Sep 24, 2021, 12:14 PM CDT

The number of oil and gas rigs in the United States rose by 9 again this week, according to Baker Hughes

The total rig count is now 521, up 260 from this time last year, but lagging behind the 790 active rigs in March 2020.

The U.S. oil rig count rose this week to 421—a 10-rig increase. The number of gas rigs fell by 1. Miscellaneous rigs held at zero.

The EIA’s estimate for oil production in the United States for the week ending September 17 rose 500,000 bpd to an average of 10.6 million barrels per day as Gulf of Mexico oil producers returned some of the shut-in production to service after Hurricane Ida.
Canada’s overall rig count increased by 8. Active oil and gas rigs in Canada are now at 162, up 91 on the year.

The rig count in the Permian Basin rose by 1 this week, as did the number of rigs in the Eagle Ford. The Permian’s total rig count is now 135 rigs above what it was this time last year, while the Eagle Ford’s rig count is 25 more than it was this time last year, at 37.

Primary Vision’s Frac Spread Count, which tracks the number of completion crews finishing off previously drilled wells, shows that completion crews rose by 8 to 252 for week ending September 17. The frac count is up by nearly 120 for the year.
 

loriamen

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Membro dello Staff
Articolo molto lungo per cui ne riporto solo alcuni paragrafi.
Per chi volesse leggerlo tutto ecco il link:
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JPMorgan Under Brazilian Scrutiny. Leading US investment bank JP Morgan & Chase (NYSE:JPM) is being investigated by Brazilian authorities for participating in a bribery and money laundering scheme that reportedly existed all the way back in 2011, with the bank seemingly getting fuel oil deliveries from Petrobras with artificially low prices.
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ConocoPhillips Sells Secondary US Acreage. Following its $9.5 billion mega-deal to buy Shell’s Permian assets, US major ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) decided to sell some of its conventional acreage in west Texas and New Mexico worth roughly $0.5 billion, in a bid to partially offset the effect on its balance sheet.

US Arrests Senior Manager of Russia’s LNG Champion. Mark Gyetvay, deputy head of Russia’s leading LNG producer NOVATEK (MCX:NVTK) who holds both US and Russian passports, has been arrested in the United States on tax charges related to $93 million hidden in offshore accounts in Switzerland.

Energy Crunch Prolongs Coal Plants’ Life. UK-based utility company Drax Group (LON:DRX) announced it could keep its coal-fired plants operating beyond their planned closure deadline in 2022, on the back of exorbitantly high gas prices pushing power prices to all-time highs.
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The market movers this week, ConocoPhillips, Citigroup, and ExxonMobil

ConocoPhilips (COP) has had a very active week, becoming the second-largest oil and gas producer in the U.S. following its $9.5 billion purchase of Shell’s Permian assets. Its move to sell some secondary oil acreage was also positively received by investors, with the stock having climbed more than 15% this week. The natural gas crunch around the world is only going to add to ConocoPhillips’s (COP) momentum in the coming week.

Citigroup (C) is unlikely to be hurt by its recent admission that it blocked PDVSA from paying debt to an oilfield equipment provider, with media attention surrounding Venezuela very much focused on sanctions and Chinese influence. Investors in Citigroup (C) are more likely to be interested in higher interest rate expectations following the fed meeting, with the bank sure to benefit if the economy strengthens.

ExxonMobil (XOM) appeared to be unaffected by revelations that it had concealed payments to some governments, with its stock price climbing through the week. Exxon is one of several oil majors benefitting from the remarkable rally in natural gas prices, and its commitment to maintaining its dividend also appears to be serving it well. As Exxon's (XOM) cash and earnings surge once again, it may soon move from one of Wall Street’s most hated stocks to a hot favorite once again.
 

loriamen

Moderatore
Membro dello Staff
As of September 21, the open interest on natural gas contracts traded on the NYMEX decreased by -51,427 contracts to 1,378,350 compared to last week which is above the 1-year average of 1,260,065. Natural gas investors remain optimistic about the commodity's prospects as the total number of long contracts outnumber short contracts by 40,617 with 54% of total contracs being long. However, compared to last week, the percentage of long contracts has decreased suggesting that investors are reducing long exposure in anticipation of a pullback.
 

Buyorsell

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Membro dello Staff
Petrolio: Opec, emergenti sosterranno domanda nel lungo termine

MILANO (MF-DJ)--La crescita della popolazione nei Paesi in via di sviluppo garantirà che il petrolio sia la fonte di energia numero uno al mondo almeno fino al 2045, con la crescente avversione delle nazioni più ricche alla produzione di combustibili fossili che lascerà che sia l'Opec a raccogliere i frutti di questa dinamica.
Le stime dell'OPEC indicano che entro il 2045 la domanda mondiale di petrolio si sarà stabilizzata anziché raggiungere un picco, che il carbone rappresenterà ancora quasi un quinto della domanda di energia e che solo un'auto su cinque sulle strade sarà elettrica, potrebbero interessare i governi e le aziende in tutto il mondo che stanno spendendo miliardi di dollari per ridurre le emissioni di carbonio.
Il rapporto annuale dell'OPEC sul mercato petrolifero nel lungo termine arriva settimane prima del vertice sul clima delle Nazioni Unite di novembre a Glasgow, in Scozia, e prevede che petrolio, gas naturale e carbone rimarranno le tre principali fonti di energia del mondo fino alla metà del secolo.
Nonostante gli sforzi delle nazioni più ricche per limitare le emissioni e decarbonizzare il loro approvvigionamento energetico, il cartello si aspetta che i Paesi in via di sviluppo vogliano più energia e l'OPEC sembra destinata a fornire loro petrolio e prodotti petroliferi per i decenni a venire. Si prevede che la quota combinata dei combustibili fossili nel mix energetico scenderà al 70% nel 2045 dall'80% dello scorso anno, ma ciò significherà comunque un aumento complessivo della produzione di petrolio e gas.
L'organizzazione con sede a Vienna ha dichiarato anche di aspettarsi che la domanda di fonti di energia rinnovabile come l'eolico e il solare quadruplichi, consegnando ai produttori di energia pulita un decimo del mix globale.
Nonostante gli sforzi dei governi per indurre i cittadini ad acquistare veicoli elettrici, il cartello ha affermato che la crescente domanda di petrolio dei Paesi in via di sviluppo sarà in parte dovuta alla crescente domanda di carburanti per il trasporto su strada e nel settore dell'aviazione.
"Spinta da una classe media in espansione, da alti tassi di crescita della popolazione e da un potenziale di crescita economica più forte, la domanda di petrolio è destinata a continuare a crescere nella regione non OCSE", ha affermato l'OPEC.
lus
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
September 28, 2021 08:54 ET (12:54 GMT)
 

loriamen

Moderatore
Membro dello Staff
Domani,finite le operazioni sulle opzioni e col cambio di contratto(novembre 21) andrà in rosso anche il gas?............Io penso proprio di sì visto che le temperature, nei prossimi 15gg., saranno neutre e.....molto probabilmente quest'inverno El Nino lascerà il posto alla NINA che terrà le temperature del nord USA piuttosto tiepide!
 

loriamen

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Membro dello Staff
Investing.com - U.S. crude stockpiles unexpectedly rose last week following a strong start to the week in oil prices amid global energy crunch in natural gas.

West Texas Intermediate, the benchmark fell to $74.33 a barrel on the news, after settling down 0.21% at $75.29 a barrel.

U.S. crude inventories increased by about 4.1 million barrels for the week ended Sept. 24. That compared with a draw of 6.1 million barrels reported by the API for the previous week. Economists were expecting a draw of about 2.3 million barrels.

The API also showed that gasoline inventories jumped by about 3.6 million last week, and distillate stocks increased by about 2.5 million barrels.

The official government inventory report due Wednesday is expected to show weekly U.S. crude supplies declined by about 1.6 million barrels last week.
Buonanotte!!!
 

loriamen

Moderatore
Membro dello Staff

  • Goldman Sachs: Brent oil prices have reached new highs since October 2018, and we forecast that this rally will continue
  • Goldman Sachs analyst Neil Mehta has recommended ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) and ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) as the best options to play the new gusher in oil prices
  • Tudor Pickering rates Chesapeake Energy (NYSE:CHK) a Buy, saying the company remains one of the few producers that remain relatively unhedged
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The good news: Wall Street remains largely bullish about the oil price trajectory.

Goldman Sachs has become the latest punter to weigh in with a pretty solid bullish thesis.

"Brent oil prices have reached new highs since October 2018, and we forecast that this rally will continue, with our year-end Brent forecast of $90/bbl vs. 80/bbl previously. While we have long held a bullish oil view, the current global oil supply-demand deficit is larger than we expected, with the recovery in global demand from the Delta impact even faster than our above consensus forecast and with global supply remaining short of our consensus forecasts."

GS further notes that, "Hurricane Ida has more than offset the ramp-up in production by OPEC+ since July with non-OPEC+ non-shale production continuing to disappoint. Available vaccines have so far proven effective against the Delta variant leading to lower hospitalization rates and allowing more countries to re-open particularly in Covid-averse countries in Asia. Meanwhile, winter demand remains skewed to the upside with a global natural gas shortage continuing to bite. Goldman has predicted that the latest inventory draw of 4.5mb/d–the largest on record–is unlikely to be reversed in the coming months and sets the stage for oil inventories to drop to their lowest since 2013."

GS is not the only strong oil bull here.

Back in June, a Bank of America analyst made waves after predicting that oil prices could be headed to $100.

BofA commodities strategist Francisco Blanch said he sees a case for $100 a barrel oil in 2022 as the world begins facing a serious oil supply crunch:
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How to Play the Oil Price Rally

At this juncture, it's safe to say that Wall Street is decidedly bullish on the oil price outlook.

Goldman Sachs analyst Neil Mehta has recommended ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) and ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) as the best options to play the new gusher in oil prices.
On COP:

"The company should deliver 30%-40% of cash flow back to shareholders in the form of dividends/buybacks, has proven a core competency around M&A execution, offers a better geographic diversification than many E&Ps [exploration and production companies], but higher oil leverage than the U.S. majors. In addition, the stock trades at the highest free cash flow yield among the majors in 2022 and lowest EV/DACF multiple," Mehta contends.

On XOM:

"Exxon is one of our most out of consensus ratings, where most investors we speak to are concerned about (a) the sustainability of earnings execution given weaker EPS surprise ratios than the S&P in recent years and (b) the premium valuation versus U.S. oil peers. However, we argue a premium valuation is justified by a strong asset base and historical trading patterns. We also see earnings beats continuing well into the future."

In the year-to-date, COP and XOM shares are up 66.8% and 43.9%, respectively.
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loriamen

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Membro dello Staff
Investing.com - Le scorte petrolifere statunitensi sono aumentate inaspettatamente nell'ultima settimana, ha dichiarato mercoledì l'Energy Information Administration.

Le scorte di greggio sono aumentate di 4,578 milioni di barili la scorsa settimana, rispetto alle aspettative degli analisti per un prelievo di 1,652 milioni di barili.

Le scorte di distillati , che includono gasolio e olio da riscaldamento , sono aumentate di 385.000 barili nella settimana contro le aspettative di un prelievo di 1,648 milioni di barili, secondo i dati EIA.

Le scorte di benzina sono aumentate di 193.000 barili la scorsa settimana, secondo l'EIA, rispetto alle aspettative per una costruzione di 1,4 milioni di barili.
 

loriamen

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Membro dello Staff
La miopia dei dirigenti europei sul gas naturale:

Dopo anni in cui si parlava di diversificazione delle forniture di gas, ma si faceva poco per portare avanti questa diversificazione, ora l'Europa sta pagando la sua miopia. Non ha modo di costringere Gazprom a inviare più gas perché Gazprom sta adempiendo ai suoi obblighi contrattuali, ed è lì che le cose finiscono fino all'approvazione del Nord Stream 2. La Norvegia può solo pompare così tanto gas ai suoi vicini e ai suoi concittadini europei. L'unica cosa rimasta è il GNL.
Il Qatar mantiene il suo primo posto a livello globale come esportatore di GNL e vanta costi di produzione molto più bassi rispetto ad altri produttori quali Australia ed USA.
Avremo,forse, qualche carico di Gnl dal Qatar?....ipotesi piuttosto remota!

Buonanotte!!!
 

loriamen

Moderatore
Membro dello Staff
E.........come avevo scritto sopra le previsioni per i prossimi 15gg. delle temperature e relativo consumo di gas sono piuttosto basse!

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Wednesday: Nov’21 nat gas futures spiked 60¢ yesterday, then gave it all back before bouncing to close 13¢ higher at $5.86. Due to extreme volatility, the nat gas trade has become exceptionally dangerous and where today should be no different as huge hourly swings are likely to continue. The overnight data remains quite bearish for the coming 15-days as highs of 60s to 80s rules most of the US and with only local coverage of highs into the 90s. The latest data continues to suggest the first opportunity for widespread below freezing temperatures isn’t likely until the last 10-days of October. Graph above is from our Live HDD/CDD weather data and shows light demand the next two days, then very light demand for days 3-16 and likely longer for a series of larger than normal builds.
 

loriamen

Moderatore
Membro dello Staff
A proposito di oil:

L'Agenzia internazionale per l'energia (AIE) vede una forte domanda repressa a partire da ottobre e continua per il resto del 2021, sebbene le sue prospettive sulla domanda non siano rialziste come quelle dell'OPEC.

La crisi energetica globale, con i prezzi del gas naturale ai massimi storici in Europa e le scorte di carbone molto basse in Europa e in alcune parti dell'Asia, aggiunge ulteriore carburante alle previsioni rialziste. Analisti e membri dell'OPEC prevedono che la crisi del gas aumenterà la domanda di petrolio fino a 1 milione di barili al giorno questo inverno

Goldman Sachs ha alzato questa settimana la sua previsione del prezzo del petrolio di fine 2021 a 90 dollari al barile Brent da 80 dollari al barile previsto in precedenza.
 
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