Per informazioni sulla pubblicità su questo sito web: advertising@quellicheinvestono.com

Energy, Oil & Gas: seguire l'andamento del petrolio, del gas e delle energy companies

loriamen

Moderatore
Membro dello Staff
Le ragioni per cui il gas americano continuerà a scendere la prossima settimana:

Natural Gas Price Fundamental Daily Forecast – Low Weather Demand, Freeport Shutdown Capping Gains​

By:James Hyerczyk
Updated: Jun 10, 2022, 20:43 GMT+2•2min read

Shutting down Freeport will leave more gas in the U.S., which would give utilities a chance to rebuild extremely low U.S. stockpiles more quickly.
Natural gas futures are down about 1.5% late Friday as forecasts for less demand this week than previously expected dampened bullish sentiment.

Traders split the blame for lower demand on the shutdown of the Freeport liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plant in Texas. The shutdown has freed up more fuel for utilities to inject into storage. Meanwhile, cooler weather from thunderstorms helped prevent peak power demand in Texas from breaking the all-time high so far this week.
At 18:05 GMT, August natural gas futures are trading $8.872, down $0.106 or -1.15%. The United States Natural Gas Fund ETF (UNG) settled at $30.04, down $0.33 or -1.09%.

Freeport Shutdown: Good and Bad News…Depends How You Look at It​

According to analysts, the Freeport shutdown would reduce the amount of gas available to the rest of the world, especially in Europe where much of the gas has gone in recent months as countries look to wean themselves off Russian supplies after Moscow’s invasion Ukraine.

However, the decision to shut down Freeport is also leaving more gas in the United States. This will leave more gas in the United States which would give utilities a chance to rebuild extremely low U.S. stockpiles more quickly.

Freeport, the second-biggest U.S. LNG export plant, consumes about 2 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) of gas, so a three-week shutdown would result in about 42 bcfd more gas being available to the U.S. market, according to Reuters.

Short-Term Weather Outlook​

According to NatGasWeather for June 10-16, “Weather systems with showers and thunderstorms continue to sweep across the northern U.S. with comfortable highs of upper 60s to lower 80s.

The southern 1/3 of the U.S. remains hot to very hot with highs of 90s to 100s as high pressure rules, including record setting heat from California to Texas.

Overall, light demand across the northern U.S. and strong demand across the southern U.S.

For next week, hot high pressure will expand north and eastward with highs of upper 80s to 100s, while mild and showery across the Northwest and Northern Plains for strong to very strong demand.”

Short-Term Outlook​

National demand Cooling Degree Days (CDDs) next week are expected to be near the hottest of the past 40-years.

However, the overnight U.S. Model (GFS) reverted cooler across the East June 18-21 as weather systems arrive, thereby shifting the hot ridge over the interior U.S. to ease national demand.

The European Model (EC) also cools the East June 18-21, just by not as much as the GFS and why it’s numerous CDDs hotter, according to NatGasWeather.

What this means is the weather is not as bullish as it was earlier in the week. This could put a cap on the market unless the weather forecasts put heat back in during the June 18-21 time period. Furthermore, buyers are likely to be cautious over the next three weeks as repairs are completed on the Freeport Export Terminal.
 

loriamen

Moderatore
Membro dello Staff
Logicamente, visto che Freeport riaprirà, forse tra tre settimane allora cambierà di nuovo il prezzo del gas statunitense...............Sembra una barzelletta ma non è proprio così.................

Natural Gas Weekly Price Forecast – Natural Gas Markets Have a Volatile Week​

By:Christopher Lewis
Updated: Jun 10, 2022, 17:59 GMT+2•2min read

Natural gas markets have gone back and forth during the course of the week, as we continue to see a lot of volatility. For what it’s worth, we are more likely than not going to be noisy in the short term.

Natural Gas Weekly Technical Analysis​

Natural gas markets have gone back and forth during the week, showing signs of both buying and selling pressure at times. The candlestick is relatively neutral, and it does suggest that perhaps a pullback could be coming. However, it’s not till we break below the $8.00 level on a daily close that you can even have that argument, and quite frankly energy has been on fire as of late. We could just as easily break above the top of the candlestick and go looking to reach the $10.00 level.

Yes, the market is a bit overstretched at this moment, so a little bit of sideways action may make more sense than anything else. If you are a longer-term trader, the risk to reward simply is not there. However, if you find yourself bearish, the risk to reward could be rather large. If you are bullish on natural gas, you need to look at this through the prism of a daily chart, or perhaps even a lower timeframe to buy dips. If you think that we have gotten close to the top, then you start to look at the weekly chart for triggers.
I believe that the next move is probably sideways than anything else, as we are starting to run out of momentum. This has been a momentum-driven market, and at this point, we are starting to see various European countries doing workarounds on sanctions, as members of the EU continue to pay for natural gas in rubles, through backdoor channels.

Natural Gas Price Forecast Video 13.06.22​

 

loriamen

Moderatore
Membro dello Staff

U.S. Oil Rig Count Jumps As Crude Holds At $120​

By Julianne Geiger - Jun 10, 2022, 12:11 PM CDT

The number of total active drilling rigs in the United States rose by 6 this week, after drilling increases stalled out in the week prior, according to new data from Baker Hughes published on Friday.

The total rig count rose to 733 this week—272 rigs higher than the rig count this time in 2021, but insufficient to ease market fears in the current tight oil market.

Oil rigs in the United States rose by 6 this week to 580. Gas rigs stayed the same, at 151. Miscellaneous rigs also stayed the same at 2.

The rig count in the Permian Basin rose by 3 this week, to 345. Rigs in the Eagle Ford rose by 2, to 68. Oil and gas rigs in the Permian are 109 above where they were this time last year.

While there is more drilling activity in the Permian than this time last year, the increase in activity in U.S. shale has been outpaced by demand. With ESG concerns giving oil and gas companies pause in upping serious long-term investments in oil production and refining, and as companies fear depleting their reserves too quickly, we have failed to see a large and speedy uptick in drilling activity.

Primary Vision's Frac Spread Count, an estimate of the number of crews completing unfinished wells—a more frugal use of finances than drilling new wells--fell for the second week in a row last week, from 283 to 279 in the week ending June 3.

U.S. crude oil production was unmovable at 11.9 million bpd for the week ending June 3—the same level it's been at for the three weeks prior, according to the latest Energy Information Administration.
 

loriamen

Moderatore
Membro dello Staff

Nat-Gas Falls On Economic Uncertainty​

Rich Asplund - Barchart - Fri Jun 10, 2:02PM CDT

July Nymex natural gas (NGN22) on Friday closed down -0.113 (-1.26%).

Nat-gas prices Friday were undercut by the strong dollar and by economic uncerainty sparked by the unfavorable U.S. CPI and consumer confidence reports.
However, nat-gas prices still have support from forecasts for hot U.S. temperatures, which would boost nat-gas demand from electricity providers to power increased air-conditioning usage. The Commodity Weather Group said Thursday that above-normal temperatures are expected in the U.S. South, West, and parts of the Midwest at least through June 22

Nat-gas prices on Thursday were undercut after news that a fire broke out at a Texas nat-gas export terminal. The fire at the Freeport LNG terminal, which receives about 2 bcf, or 2.5% of the output from the lower 48 U.S. states, could lead to a buildup in supplies as nat-gas exports are reduced because of the fire. The Freeport terminal said Thursday that it would remain closed for at least three weeks and issued a force majeure for LNG shipments scheduled till at least June 30.

Nat-gas prices have support after Russia recently said that foreign buyers of its gas would need to open special ruble and foreign currency accounts by the end of this month to buy Russian gas. Russia has already halted nat-gas shipments to Demark, Finland, Bulgaria, the Netherlands, and Poland for not paying for Russian gas in rubles.

Stronger U.S. nat-gas production is bearish for prices as BNEF data showed lower-48 dry gas production Thursday at 95.07 bcf, up +2.4% y/y.

Strong foreign demand for U.S. nat-gas supplies is bullish for prices after BNEF data showed gas flows to U.S. export terminals Thursday rose by +24% y/y to 11.099 bcf.

Weakness in U.S. domestic nat-gas demand is bearish for prices as BNEF data shows lower 48-state nat-gas demand Thursday was 64.916 bcf, down -5.9% y/y.
An increase in U.S. electricity output is bullish for nat-gas demand from utility providers. The Edison Electric Institute reported Wednesday that total U.S. electricity output in the week ended June 4 rose +8.2% y/y to 80,794 GWh (gigawatt hours). Also, cumulative U.S. electricity output in the 52-week period ending June 4 rose +2.8% y/y to 4,096,496 GWh.

As a longer-term bullish factor, the ongoing drought in the U.S. West has drained rivers and reservoirs, with Lake Mead recently falling to a record low. That threatens to curb power produced by hydropower dams and will prompt electric utilities in the U.S. West to boost usage of nat-gas to increase electricity to satisfy power demand for air-conditioning this summer. The U.S. Energy Information Administration said last Wednesday that the drought could drive down generation at California's hydro dams between June and September to 7 million megawatt-hours, well below the 13 million megawatt-hour median for summer generation between 1980 and 2020.

Thursday's weekly EIA report was bullish for nat-gas prices as it showed U.S. nat gas inventories rose +97 bcf to 1,999 bcf in the week ended June 3, below expectations of +98 bcf. Inventories remain tight and are down -17.1% y/y and -14.5% below their 5-year average.

Baker Hughes reported Friday that the number of active U.S. nat-gas drilling rigs in the week ended June 10 was unchanged at a 2-1/2 year high of 151 rigs. Active rigs have more than doubled from the record low of 68 rigs posted in July 2020 (data since 1987).
 

loriamen

Moderatore
Membro dello Staff

  • The United States has a new plan to curb Russia’s oil revenue.
  • The U.S. is in talks with European allies over a potential price cap on Russian crude.
  • The goal is to keep Russian oil flowing while limiting Moscow’s energy revenues.
 

loriamen

Moderatore
Membro dello Staff

Gas pipeline Nord Stream 1 to undergo annual summer maintenance – German regulator​

By:Reuters
Published: Jun 13, 2022, 13:08 GMT+2•1min read

FRANKFURT (Reuters) – Nord Stream 1, one of the major pipelines that pumps Russian gas to Europe, will undergo its regular annual maintenance in summer, the head of Germany’s network regulator said, flagging a period when there will be no gas flows.

Bundesnetzagentur President Klaus Mueller said on Twitter that this implied that gas storage levels will stagnate for the maintenance period, which he said would last around two weeks.
Gas pipeline flows are currently in focus over disruption concerns in the wake of Moscow’s Ukraine invasion. Germany received more than half of its gas from Russia last year, a number that has since come down slightly.

Mueller gave no further details on the expected schedule of the maintenance of the pipeline, which is majority-owned by Russian gas company Gazprom and has E.ON, Wintershall Dea, Engie and Gasunie [GSUNI.IL] as co-shareholders.

Data available on the Nord Stream 1 website show that no gas came via the pipeline during July 15-22 2021.

The Bundesnetzagentur on Friday said Germany’s gas storage levels stood at 52.93%.

(Reporting by Christoph Steitz. Editing by Jane Merriman)
 

loriamen

Moderatore
Membro dello Staff
La forte discesa del prezzo del natural gas è dovuta alle dichiarazioni della dirigenza dell'impianto di liquefazione di Freeport che in un primo momento prevedeva la chiusura dell'impianto per 3 settimane mentre oggi ha dichiarato che non riaprirà fino alla fine del 2022!

Buona Serata!!!
 

loriamen

Moderatore
Membro dello Staff
A conferma di quanto sopra:

Natural Gas Price Forecast – Natural Gas Markets Get a Beating From Freeport​

By:Christopher Lewis
Updated: Jun 14, 2022, 17:30 GMT+2•1min read

The Freeport terminal looks as if it is going to have less production for longer, and therefore natural gas markets have sold off in reaction to that announcement.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis​

Natural gas markets have gotten beaten down during the trading session on Tuesday, as the Freeport terminal has announced that repairs are going to take longer than anticipated. While this makes LNG less likely to be exported, it should be noted that that is one of the major drivers of price. In other words, the situation in Europe just got a whole lot direr.

With that being the case, we may have to focus on US demand, and although there is a heat wave in the United States at the moment, there’s nothing in the United States that suggests $9.00 is a sustainable price of natural gas, something that quite frankly we have almost as much as we have water.
With this being the case, it’s very likely that natural gas will continue to suffer as long as the Europeans cannot drive up the price of LNG. If there is a lot less LNG to export, suddenly the Russian position gets a lot more interesting, as they now have even more leverage. Eventually, the European Union will acquiesce to Russian demands, and therefore things will stabilize.

However, we are nowhere near that at the moment so be advised that things could be quite messy. I suspect that there is a significant amount of support at the $7.00 level, and then again at the $6.50 level. Rallies at this point will have to contend with the $8.00 level and overtaken on a daily close to unwind some of the significant damage.

 

loriamen

Moderatore
Membro dello Staff
Da COMMODITIES TRADING: 15/06/2022 12:00

Petrolio: pronto un nuovo rilascio dalla SPR USA​

Il Dipartimento dell'Energia degli Stati Uniti ha dichiarato di essere pronto a piazzare a mercato fino a 45 milioni di barili di petrolio prelevato dalla Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) come parte del rilascio dalle scorte precedentemente annunciato dall’amministrazione Biden; le consegne di greggio inizieranno nella giornata del 16 agosto e termineranno a fine settembre.

L'amministrazione Biden ha dichiarato alla fine di marzo che avrebbe rilasciato un record di 1 milione di barili di petrolio al giorno per sei mesi dall’SPR, la riserva strategica statunitense custodita in caverne di sale lungo le coste di Texas e Louisiana.

Il rilascio del petrolio in oggetto ha come obiettivo il mantenere sotto controllo le quotazioni del greggio, quotazioni in forte aumento a causa del conflitto in corso tra Russia ed Ucraina, con la prima che si propone tra i principali produttori di petrolio al mondo e che, ora, subisce il contraccolpo delle sanzioni occidentali.
1655329791785.png
Il recupero delle economie globali dopo la pandemia di covid ha determinato un forte aumento della domanda di oro nero che si è tradotto in un picco di prezzo del petrolio in un contesto contraddistinto da una capacità inutilizzata di riserva a disposizione di pochi produttori globali.

I funzionari dell'amministrazione Biden hanno affermato che il prezzo del petrolio potrebbe essere più alto se l'SPR non fosse stata sfruttata, ma la strategia intrapresa dagli USA ha anche condotto il livello della SPR al minimo dal 1987 ad oggi, aumentando le preoccupazioni per la stretta sui mercati petroliferi globali nonostante gli Stati Uniti abbiano più scorte di quanto richiesto dagli accordi internazionali.


Fonte Reuters

 

loriamen

Moderatore
Membro dello Staff

The number of total active drilling rigs in the United States rose by 7 this week, according to new data from Baker Hughes published on Friday.

The total rig count rose to 740 this week—270 rigs higher than the rig count this time in 2021, but insufficient to ease market fears in the current tight oil market.

Oil rigs in the United States rose by 4 this week to 584. Gas rigs rose by 3 to 154. Miscellaneous rigs stayed the same at 2.

The rig count in the Permian Basin was flat this week at 345. Rigs in the Eagle Ford rose by 1, to 69. Oil and gas rigs in the Permian are 108 above where they were this time last year.
 

loriamen

Moderatore
Membro dello Staff

  • European gas prices have soared by as much as 50% in just one week.
  • The surge in prices was spurred by reduced Russian flows and an outage at a key LNG export terminal.
  • Germany warned that limits to flows via the Nord Stream pipeline were a strategy from Putin to rattle the market.
 

loriamen

Moderatore
Membro dello Staff

Friday, June 17th, 2022

The adoption of the EU oil sanctions appears to have led to Russia retaliating by holding back its natural gas exports. Russian gas flows to Europe have seen hefty drops over the course of this week, with Italy, Germany, and France all receiving less than half of their usual volumes. Russia’s Gazprom blames sanctions that hindered maintenance, whilst European countries see the unexpected declines as a sign that the Kremlin is trying to retaliate for all the past sanctions by limiting gas supply. So now, it is not just oil and oil products that trade way above historical averages, natural gas is way above the norm, too. Meanwhile, oil prices plunged on Friday morning as recession fears soared.
..........
Nord Stream 1 Goes Down with Throughput Issues. Russia’s gas giant Gazprom (MCX:GAZP) declared it had to cut throughput in the Nord Stream 1 pipeline to Europe, saying delays in Siemens equipment repairs force it to run at just 40% capacity, a claim disputed by the German government as spot prices soar.

OPEC+ Admits Huge Underproduction, Again. As reported by Reuters, OPEC+ produced 2.695 million b/d below its production target in May, bringing total levels of deal compliance to 256%, with several African producers stuck in force majeure events and Russia seeing sanctions-driven production declines.

US Pressures Iran By Sanctioning Chinese Firms. For the second time in less than a month, the US Treasury has imposed sanctions on Chinese and Emirati companies that helped export Iran’s petrochemicals, stepping up the pressure on Tehran but also squeezing buying possibilities for Asian buyers.
.........
Chinese Refining Sees Steepest Fall in a Decade. Chinese refinery runs fell 11% year-on-year, the steepest such change in more than a decade, to average 12.7 million b/d as continuous COVID-19 lockdowns depressed domestic demand and despite weak refining led to inventory builds across the country.
..........
South Africa Wants to Join Russia Buying Spree. Inspired by India’s soaring purchases of Russian crude, South Africa’s energy minister said the country’s refineries should start buying Russian oil to curb rising fuel prices and alleviate the pressure on state coffers as the government ramped up energy subsidies.
...........
 

loriamen

Moderatore
Membro dello Staff
E..............mentre noi siamo salassati alle pompe dei combustibili, Cina ed India banchettano con il petrolio russo SOTTOCOSTO!.....e non è il solo salasso che subiamo!!!......Insomma l'EUROPA fa la gradassa usando i soldi dei vari popoli ed emanando sanzioni che servono solo ad impoverire la propria gente mentre ne arricchiscono altre!
BELLA POLITICA............da OSCAR!!!!!!

A domani.........se riesco a calmarmi!!!!!!!!!
 

loriamen

Moderatore
Membro dello Staff
Da Investing.com:

Oil lower as recession fears bite; Biden gas tax appeal seen likely

Crude oil prices continued to come off the boil as global recession fears clouded the demand outlook. Reports of a COVID-19 outbreak in the Chinese gambling hub of Macau did nothing to improve the mood.

By 06:30 a.m. ET, U.S. crude prices were down 4.7% at $104.71 a barrel, while Brent was down 4.2% at $109.84.

U.S. President Joe Biden is expected to call on Congress later to vote for a suspension of the federal gasoline tax, and to rally support for other measures that will cut prices across the U.S. As the measures are aimed at sustaining demand, it’s not clear that they will ultimately put downward pressure on global prices.

The American Petroleum Institute will report its weekly inventory data at 04:30 p.m. ET, a day later than usual due to Monday’s holiday.

Buona Giornata!!!
 

Tony

Well-known member
Apa, data via in premarket e brevemente shortata intraday, si avvia a fare un -30% in 11 sedute. Un cassettista praticamente non ha il tempo nemmeno di respirare con questo genere di rasoiate.
 

loriamen

Moderatore
Membro dello Staff
Vedo che il WTI si mantiene intorno al supporto di 105$!, se va sotto i 100 potrebbe arrivare fino a 90/85.
Al rialzo potrebbe tentare un allungo fino ai 110/120$ anche se, al momento, il mercato non sembra fornire una spinta sufficiente a ritestarli!!

Buon Trading!!!
 
Alto