Energy, Oil & Gas: seguire l'andamento del petrolio, del gas e delle energy companies

[loriamen]

E................finalmente!, dopo oltre 6 mesi dall'incendio di giugno, riapre FREEPORT!!!

Da COMMODITIES TRADING:

Gas Naturale, USA: Freeport riavvia gli impianti​

Secondo i dati di Refinitiv, l'impianto di esportazione di gas naturale liquefatto (GNL) di Freeport LNG, in Texas, ha iniziato a ricevere gas naturale da gasdotto; le esportazioni di GNL dagli Stati Uniti sono in costante aumento da anni e Freeport, il secondo più grande impianto di esportazione di GNL degli Stati Uniti, è una delle numerose strutture chiave per le spedizioni in tutto il mondo, dove la domanda è aumentata vertiginosamente in seguito alla decisione della Russia di interrompere le forniture all’Europa a seguito della situazione in Ucraina.

Il gas ha iniziato a fluire verso Freeport il 14 gennaio e, proprio in questi giorni, potrebbero raggiungere i 69 milioni di piedi cubi al giorno (stima Refinitiv). L’ultimo flusso di gas in ingresso presso il sito di Freeport risale a fine dicembre, ma si trattava di un flusso atto a garantire la manutenzione degli impianti.
Alcuni funzionari di Freeport hanno dichiarato che l'impianto era ancora sulla buona strada per riavviarsi nella seconda metà di gennaio, in attesa delle approvazioni normative. Freeport non ha ancora presentato una richiesta alle autorità di regolamentazione federali per riavviare l’impianto.

I futures sul gas naturale USA hanno reagito molto bene alla notizia e, nel momento in cui queste righe sono scritte, si mostrano in crescita di oltre il 6,5% a quota 3,65 $/mmBtu, con gli investitori che puntano su un riavvio più rapido del previsto e su un meteo potenzialmente più freddo in grado di stimolare la richiesta di gas a fini di riscaldamento.

Il riavvio totale è quindi alle porte? Non è detto, in quanto tale data è stata più volte posticipata, tanto che alcune navi hanno cambiato al destinazione finale. Quando Freeport riavvierà definitivamente gli impianti, la produzione USA si proporrà sicuramente in forte aumento, in quanto il sito può trasformare circa 2,1 bcfd di gas in GNL, circa il 2% della produzione giornaliera degli Stati Uniti.

Fonte Reuters

 

[Tony]

Mo' me lo segno, vediamo che accadrà ai titoli energetici e a oil & gas

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1616034287169536000

 

[albume]

2 giu 2022 — Il ceo Jamie Dimon lancia l'allarme: la riduzione del bilancio della Fed, il caro petrolio, che secondo lui può arrivare tra 150 e 175

 

[loriamen]

Natural Gas Price Forecast – Natural Gas Is Still Trying to Stabilize​

By:Christopher Lewis
Updated: Jan 19, 2023, 15:52 GMT+1•2min read

Natural Gas markets have gone back and forth early during the session on Thursday as we continue to try to find footing in a market that has fallen apart.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis​

Natural gas markets have been very quiet at the open on Thursday, as we continue to see a lot of back-and-forth right around the $3.30 level. Quite frankly, every time natural gas looks like it’s going to take off, it rolls over yet again. One of the biggest factors of course is going to be the fact that the supply of natural gas is rising, with the Freeport terminal finally operating as expected. This means that there is much more natural gas coming out of the United States in the form of exports, so that has to be taken into account.
Furthermore, weather is much warmer than usual, which of course will have a certain amount of influence on pricing as well. After all, if it’s not cold, natural gas will be used to heat homes in nearly the amount expected. Beyond that, you also have to keep in mind that industrial demand should be dropping if the global economy is slowing down, so that makes a huge difference in the way demand is envisioned. If we do see a certain amount of negative pressure in the market yet again, the follow-through would be that industrial demand is falling off of a cliff, which you can make a serious argument for.

At this point, I’m hoping and begging for a nice bounce that I can start selling, and the 50-Day EMA looks to be crashing into the $5.00 level, making that a perfect area, but we are nowhere near it. If you are more of a day trader, then you’re looking for short-term rallies that you can take advantage of on short-term charts.

 

[loriamen]

E..... sempre dallo stesso autore........il giorno successivo:

Natural Gas Weekly Price Forecast – Natural Gas Markets Continue to Drift Lower​

By:Christopher Lewis
Published: Jan 20, 2023, 17:50 GMT

Natural gas markets have fallen a bit during the trading week again, as we are looking near the $3.00 level again, showing a huge “round-trip” move.

Natural Gas Weekly Technical Analysis​

Natural gas markets have gone back and forth during the course of the trading week, as we tried to get down to the $3.00 level. Ultimately, this is a market that I think will continue to see a lot of selling pressure and fear. However, we will eventually get some type of short covering rally to make this market go higher. That being said, I think it’s probably only a matter of time before we get yet another opportunity to short.
Looking at the start, I think it’s probably worth noting that we are oversold, and an oversold condition almost always has a massive bear market rally. The 200-Week EMA is near the $4.48 level, which will attract a lot of attention. After all, this is a situation where the market has been leaning in one direction for so long, that when we do get some type of snapback, it will be brutal. After all, if there is a huge tick up in demand in the short term, that can cause everybody to run away from their positions. We will get a nasty winter storm sometime between now and spring, and I will almost certainly be the catalyst. At that point, I’m waiting for some type of sign of exhaustion that I can start shorting.

If we do break down below the $3.00 level, then it’s possible that we could unwind down to the $2.50 level, but I do not feel like chasing the trade makes a lot of sense at this point, as we have gotten so far ahead of ourselves to the downside.

 

[loriamen]

Anch'io penso che, a breve, ci sarà un rally che porterà il gas a 5$ dove s'incontra il 50-Day EMA.
Teniamo presente che siamo ancora in inverno e, in qualsiasi momento, può arrivare una tempesta che provocherà un rialzo!
Attendiamo e vediamo cosa ci riserverà Madre Natura!!

Buona Serata!!!

 

[loriamen]

Upstream Spending To Rise To $485 Billion In 2023 | OilPrice.com

In its 2023 outlook, Energy Intelligence notes that global upstream capex will hit $485B in the current year, good for 12% Y/Y increase

oilprice.com

• Most oil companies have only modestly adjusted upstream budgets.
• Energy Intel: global capex will rise 12% year on year.
• Non-OPEC growth will mostly be seen in the Guyana Basin, Brazil, the Gulf of Mexico, the North Sea and West Africa.

 

[loriamen]

Ecco perché l'Europa dovrebbe tornare al gas russo... - Metalli Rari

Secondo Bloomberg, l'Europa ricomincerà ad acquistare gas russo per mantenere le sue industrie competitive su scala globale.

www.metallirari.com

Secondo Bloomberg, l’Europa ricomincerà ad acquistare gas russo per mantenere le sue industrie competitive su scala globale.

La notizia che la Germania ha posto fine alla sua dipendenza dal gas russo è stata presentata dal governo tedesco come un grande successo politico. Al contrario, c’è chi si è messo le mani dei capelli e ha evidenziato che il conto da pagare è così salato che nessuno ha nemmeno il coraggio di guardarlo, ne tanto meno di comunicarlo all’opinione pubblica.
Non solo la Germania, ma l’intera Unione Europea (UE), ha deciso che la priorità numero uno è tagliare la dipendenza dal gas russo. Una decisione politica che, nel brevissimo termine, sembra stare in piedi ma che, come hanno più volte detto gli esperti, non può funzionare a lungo.
Come ha evidenziato anche Bloomberg, la pantomima del rifiuto di gas dalla Russia durerà al massimo fino al prossimo dicembre e poi la UE ricomincerà ad acquistare il gas di Putin. Il motivo è semplice e sotto agli occhi di tutti: enormi differenze di prezzo tra il gas russo (via gasdotto) e il GNL che proviene via nave da mezzo mondo.

Probabilmente la UE non tornerà agli stessi contratti a lungo termine del passato con la Russia e, con il passare del tempo, avrà bisogno di importare meno gas grazie alle energie rinnovabili. Tuttavia, se Bruxelles intende mantenere competitive le sue industrie siderurgiche, chimiche e alimentari avrà bisogno di gas a buon mercato. E non c’è gas più economico per l’Europa di quello della Russia.

Il passaggio al GNL è costato all’Europa più di un trilione di euro e, mentre i prezzi del gas sono scesi ai livelli ante-guerra, gli europei continuano a pagare prezzi alti per avere energia. Una condizione che è destinata a perdurare se l’Europa non cambia strada.
Le parole del Ministro dell’Energia del Qatar, Saad Sherida al-Kaabi, sono emblematiche: “Gli europei oggi dicono che non è possibile tornare indietro. Tuttavia la fortuna di tutti noi è di essere in grado di dimenticare e perdonare. E penso che le cose si aggiustino con il tempo…“. In altre parole, uno dei fornitori europei di GNL ci sta dicendo che finora l’economia europea ha prosperato grazie all’energia russa a basso costo. Se togliamo l’elemento economico dell’equazione energetica, l’economia europea crollerà.

Naturalmente, potremmo scoprire che l’Europa è incapace di perdonare o dimenticare, così come potrebbe esserlo anche la Russia visto che la UE ha usato come arma il suo potere finanziario e commerciale sotto forma di sanzioni con la stessa aggressività con cui la Russia ha fatto con il suo gas.

Se questa dovesse essere la strada della UE per i prossimi anni, non ci sono dubbi che gli europei diventeranno molto più poveri, in una misura tale di cui la storia recente non ha nemmeno un lontano ricordo.

Intanto mi ritorna in mente il proverbio che mio padre (Buonanima) mi ripeteva spesso e che citai in uno dei post precedenti:

"SE SEI MARTELLO BATTI..........SE SEI INCUDINE.....SOPPORTA!!!"

Buonanotte!!!!!!

 

[_soppa_]

La notizia che la Germania ha posto fine alla sua dipendenza dal gas russo è stata presentata dal governo tedesco come un grande successo politico. [...]

Germany’s gas consumption and imports declined in 2022

Germany’s Federal Network Agency (Bundesnetzagentur) has published the country’s gas supply figures for 2022. According to the energy regulator, Germany consumed an average of 847.5 TWh of gas in 2022, which represents a 17.6% decrease compared to 2021 (1,029 TWh). Household and commercial...

www.enerdata.net

mah 22% e "porre fine" non mi paiono proprio conciliabili... Dicono una cosa, ma ne fanno un'altra.

In ogni caso fa scopa perfettamente con quanto scritto nel thread della guerra... I crucchi hanno già in mente di tornare a usare il gas asap e devono tenerseli buoni. A meno di sorprendenti prese di posizioni dell'opinione pubblica tedesca, finirà esattamente così.

E la cosa più divertente è che quando ben la russia ricomincerà a macinare export a tutto spiano per noi sarà ancora una piazza ancora non raggiungibile.

 

[loriamen]

Non riesco a capire: le temperature negli USA, al momento, sono molto fredde ma il prezzo del gas continua a scendere, BOH!!!

Natural Gas Price Forecast – Natural Gas Markets Continue to Look Weak at Best​

By:Christopher Lewis
Published: Jan 24, 2023, 16:12 GMT

Natural gas markets have done very little during the trading session on Tuesday, which speaks volumes considering that temperatures are very cold in the United States at the moment.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis​

Natural gas markets have struggled a bit during the trading session on Tuesday, as we cannot find any momentum, regardless of temperatures in the United States. At this point, if we do rally, the $4.00 level almost certainly offer a bit of a barrier, followed by the 50-Day EMA at the $4.72 level.
Ultimately, I think this is a situation where you were looking for rallies that you can fade. Markets are very quiet, and that suggests that perhaps there is a bit of a lack of interest, or perhaps even a potential accumulation phase. Nonetheless, there’s no real desire by most traders to get involved, but it still remains a “fade the rally” type of situation. If you are short-term trader, then you start to look at this through the prism of a range bound market with plenty of negativity. If you are a bit more of a swing trader like me, then you are waiting for a bounce toward the $4.00 level, or the aforementioned 50-Day EMA.

If we do break down from here, the $3.00 level should be a significant amount of support and breaking down below there would be yet another crushing move for anybody who is even remotely bullish. It’s difficult to imagine how you would be at this point, but it’s obvious that the market is oversold, so that’s probably the only real significant amount of reasoning for bullish pressure would be a short covering rally. Short covering rallies are quite brutal most of the time, so perhaps that might give us an opportunity to start shorting again.

 

[loriamen]

Il gas ha rotto anche il supporto di 3$ (citato nel precedente post)! Oggi è sui 2,45$ e, per eguagliare il calo massimo, dovrebbe(condizionale) raggiungere $ 1,78!!...........ci arriverà?, non lo so ma se dovesse farlo vuol dire che farò il PIENO!!!

Buona Giornata!!!!!!

 

[giove976]

Gas naturale, oro e petrolio- analisi e prospettive settimanali​

Materie prime 2 ore fa (06.02.2023 07:50)
Di Barani Krishnan

https://it.investing.com/news/commo...lio-analisi-e-prospettive-settimanali-2117071

 

[loriamen]

Natural Gas Price Fundamental Daily Forecast - Outlook Gloomy as Stockpiles Rise Along with Temperatures

The week begins with Nat Gas storage inventories tracking well above normal for this time of year and should continue to grow as temperatures warm.

www.fxempire.com

The week begins with Nat Gas storage inventories tracking well above normal for this time of year and should continue to grow as temperatures warm.

U.S. natural gas futures fell nearly 2% to a more-than-two-year low on Friday on forecasts for milder winter temperatures than expected over the next two weeks, leading to forecasts of lower heating demand. The price action suggests that even the most stubborn bulls may finally be getting ready to throw in the towel for this winter season.

On Friday, April natural gas futures settled at $2.480, down $0.042 or -1.67%. The United States Natural Gas Fund ETF (UNG) finished at $8.17 or -$0.21%, down 2.51%.

Two Months of Price Destruction​

The gas contract was down more than 63% over the past seven weeks, its biggest seven-week collapse in history. January temperatures in the U.S. Lower 48 states averaged about 41.8 degrees Fahrenheit (5.7 Celsius), second warmest on record for the month, Reuters reported.

Meanwhile, data from Refinitiv and the federal government showed the warmest January on record was in 2006 when the temperature averaged 42.8 F.

The near-term outlook isn’t any better either. Meteorologists are saying that once the current extreme freezing conditions exit parts of the country this weekend, then average temperatures will climb back to mostly above-normal levels from Feb. 5 through at least Feb. 18.

Freeport LNG to the Rescue?​

Expectations are mounting that the Freeport liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plant in Texas could start pulling in large amounts of fuel as it restarts LNG production in coming weeks, according to Reuters.

Federal regulators this week approved Freeport’s plan to start sending gas to one of the plant’s three liquefaction trains, which turn gas into LNG. On Thursday, Freeport asked regulators for permission to start loading LNG on ships to free up space in the storage tanks for the new LNG expected to be produced soon, Reuters reported.

Although this could be construed as a positive development, keep in mind that professionals still do not expect Freeport to return to full LNG production until mid-March or later.

Getting Freeport LNG back on line is important because when operating at full power, Freeport can turn about 2.1 billion cubic feet (Bcf) of gas into LNG each day. That is about 2% of total U.S. daily gas production.

Weekly Outlook​

The week begins with storage inventories tracking well above normal for this time of year and after last week’s Arctic Blast is accounted for, stocks should continue to grow. This gives traders little incentive to drive prices higher, especially as the spring shoulder season nears.

During shoulder season production is expected to rise and demand fall because it’s neither cold enough for heat nor hot enough for air conditioning.

Additionally, traders aren’t looking for Freeport LNG to start a rally, but rather slow down or stop the decline.

 

[loriamen]

Russia’s Budget Deficit Jumps Amid Plunging Oil Revenues | OilPrice.com

Russia’s budget was $24.7 billion into deficit in January, compared to a surplus for January 2022, as state revenues from oil and gas plunged by 46.4% due to the low price of Urals and lower natural gas exports

oilprice.com

• Russia’s budget was $24.7 billion (1.76 trillion rubles) into deficit in January.
• Total budget revenues slumped by 35% last month compared to the same month of 2022.
• The low price of Russia’s flagship grade is reducing Russian revenues from oil due to the steep discount at which Urals trades relative to the international benchmark Brent Crude.

..................
Total budget revenues slumped by 35% last month compared to the same month of 2022, while overall budget expenditures jumped by 58.7% year-on-year in January, the ministry’s data showed.

Russia’s non-oil and gas revenues also dropped, by 28.1% year over year, according to preliminary estimates.

The revenue slump last month came from the key export revenues for the Russian state—oil and gas.

The low price of Russia’s flagship grade is reducing Russian revenues from oil due to the steep discount at which Urals trades relative to the international benchmark Brent Crude.

The average price of Urals in January, at $49.48 per barrel, was 1.7 times lower than in January 2022, when it averaged $85.64 per barrel, the Finance Ministry said last week.
The price of Urals has slumped to a discount of nearly $40 per barrel to the price of Brent Crude, which reduces Russia’s budget revenues from oil export taxes.
...............
In the budget estimate for January this week, the Finance Ministry confirmed parts of this report, saying that “considering the fact that the relevance of the price of Urals in calculating export prices has diminished, various other approaches are currently being studied to switch to alternative price indicators for tax purposes.”

 

[loriamen]

U.S. energy regulators questioned on oversight of Freeport, Texas, LNG plant​

Stock Markets 2 hours ago (Feb 11, 2023 01:55PM ET)
By Arathy Somasekhar

FREEPORT, Texas (Reuters) -Texas residents grilled U.S. energy regulators on Saturday over their supervision of liquefied natural gas processing plants at a meeting to discuss conditions at the fire-idled Freeport LNG plant.

The second-largest U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export facility was knocked offline by a fiery blast last June and operations halted while regulators review operations and staffing.

When fully running, Freeport LNG processes about 2 billion cubic feet per day of natural gas and exports up to 15 million tonnes of LNG per year. Its progress toward reopening is closely watched because of the impact on U.S. natural gas prices.

Bryan Lethcoe, a regional director of regulator Pipeline Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA), said it would take "a number of months" for Freeport LNG to return to full operation. PHMSA officials declined to provide an exact estimate.

Residents questioned whether regulators have provided adequate oversight over the plant's repairs, its past emissions or the monitoring of local residents' health.
"We're concerned about them getting close to reopening. I'm hoping FERC and PHMSA kind of slow down the process of allowing them to reopen," said Melanie Oldham, one of about 100 residents who attended the meeting.

A Freeport LNG spokesperson declined to comment.

The blast resulted from inadequate operating and testing procedures, operator fatigue and other shortcomings, a safety audit found. About 10,000 pounds of methane were released, said a PHMSA representative. Methane is the main component of natural gas and a potent greenhouse gas.



The LNG producer has completed all repairs and is working to restart the facility safely once regulators approve its plans, a spokesperson previously has said.

Linda Daugherty, PHMSA's deputy associate administrator, said its reviews continue. Officials declined to comment on whether they uncovered any safety violations.

Buonanotte!!!

 

[loriamen]

Low Natural Gas Prices Could Cause A Supply Crunch | OilPrice.com

Low natural gas prices are likely to hurt U.S. production this year, which will leave the market vulnerable when demand rebounds

oilprice.com

• Since the start of the year, U.S. natural gas prices have slumped by 46 percent, and now the number of active drilling rigs looks set to decline in response.
• In Europe, natural gas prices remain much higher than before 2022, but a mild winter has allowed the continent to fill up its storage.
• The lack of demand for natural gas currently is likely to hurt production, which could cause a problem going forward when demand begins to spike.

 

[loriamen]

Nat-Gas Prices Soar as Partial Reopening of Freeport Terminal Boosts U.S. Gas Exports

March Nymex natural gas (NGH23 ) on Tuesday closed up +0.162 (+6.74%). March nat-gas prices soared Tuesday on the partial reopening of the Freeport LNG export terminal, which is boosting U.S. nat-gas exports. Estimated gas flows to U.S. LNG export terminals Tuesday were seen reaching 13.5 bcf...

www.barchart.com

March nat-gas prices soared Tuesday on the partial reopening of the Freeport LNG export terminal, which is boosting U.S. nat-gas exports. Estimated gas flows to U.S. LNG export terminals Tuesday were seen reaching 13.5 bcf, up +10.5% w/w and the highest since last March. Also, flows to the Freeport terminal are estimated at 0.74 bcf Tuesday, the most since the terminal was shut down in June. The resumption of nat-gas exports from Freeport will curb U.S. gas inventory builds and is bullish for prices.

Lower-48 state dry gas production on Tuesday was 99.6 bcf (+3.6% y/y), moderately below the record high of 103.6 bcf posted on Oct 3, according to BNEF. Lower-48 state gas demand Tuesday was 84 bcf/day, down -21.8% y/y, according to BNEF. On Tuesday, LNG net flows to U.S. LNG export terminals were 13.5 bcf/day, up +10.5% w/w.

Nat-gas prices fell sharply over the past two months to a 2-year low o... Read more

Buonanotte!!!

 

[Tony]

Low Natural Gas Prices Could Cause A Supply Crunch | OilPrice.com

Low natural gas prices are likely to hurt U.S. production this year, which will leave the market vulnerable when demand rebounds

oilprice.com

• Since the start of the year, U.S. natural gas prices have slumped by 46 percent, and now the number of active drilling rigs looks set to decline in response.
• In Europe, natural gas prices remain much higher than before 2022, but a mild winter has allowed the continent to fill up its storage.
• The lack of demand for natural gas currently is likely to hurt production, which could cause a problem going forward when demand begins to spike.

Il Sole celebra la discesa del prezzo del gas...

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1626529787459129345

 

[loriamen]

Guardando i prezzi attuali potrebbe sembrare che ormai il gas è finito e che non ci sarà un seguito a quanto successo nel 2022.........ma non è così!!!
Intanto FREEPORT è stato autorizzato alla esportazione di GNL e marzo sarà più freddo del normale, senza contare che questa estate potrebbe essere la fotocopia di quella del 2022!, mentre l'esportazione dagli USA di GNL continuerà tanto che stanno sorgendo tanti nuovi impianti di GNL!!
Penso che, se arriva a $2 si potrà entrare long!!!

 

[giove976]

non so dalle vostre parti, ma intanto al dettaglio una bombola di gas da 15kg ha raggiunto il prezzo record .
Posso anche ricordare che il prezzo lo scorso anno non si è quadruplicato per come è stato diffuso il tema dai media
mantenendosi intorno al 20% sul totale nel periodo estivo, però non saprei a chi attribuire il merito.. ma quest'inverno hanno aggiunto un ulteriore 10% proprio sui minimi delle quotazioni !