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Energy, Oil & Gas: seguire l'andamento del petrolio, del gas e delle energy companies

condor74

Moderatore
Membro dello Staff
Buy massivo sullo step down che potrebbe fare di qui a qualche settimana, quando taglierà il dividendo. Nella mia esperienza ho imparato che il 10,21% non è sostenibile, significa che lo ridurranno, imho

PS: se lo portano a buy come raccomandazione, certo non è per comprarlo loro...

Tra l'altro il taglio del dividendo di un colosso come XOM e il relativo step down rischia di avere ripercussioni, anche solo nell'immediato, su tutto il comparto?

E' vero che in Europa i grossi player hanno già tagliato e oggi lo Stoxx 600 Oil&Gas ha fatto + 1.26% contro il -0.4% attuale di XLE. Però è sempre l'America che comanda, a maggior ragione se parliamo di oil companies...
 

Tony

Well-known member
Tra l'altro il taglio del dividendo di un colosso come XOM e il relativo step down rischia di avere ripercussioni, anche solo nell'immediato, su tutto il comparto?

E' vero che in Europa i grossi player hanno già tagliato e oggi lo Stoxx 600 Oil&Gas ha fatto + 1.26% contro il -0.4% attuale di XLE. Però è sempre l'America che comanda, a maggior ragione se parliamo di oil companies...
Anche negli Usa altri credo abbiano già tagliato.
 

Tony

Well-known member
Giornata pesantissima per i colossi dei servizi nel settore oil & gas. E guardate i volumi, almeno per la prima...

Questi sono in prima linea nel risentire dell'andamento dei corsi dell'oil, peraltro. Quando sottoperformano spesso non è un buon segno.

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loriamen

Moderatore
Membro dello Staff

U.S. Oil Rig Count Leaps Higher​

By Julianne Geiger - Oct 16, 2020, 12:14 PM CDT

Baker Hughes reported on Friday that the number of oil rigs in the United States rose by 12 to 205—a gain that may push prices down further.

The total number of active oil and gas rigs increased for the week by 13, with oil rigs rising by 12 and gas rigs rising by 1.

Total oil and gas rigs in the United States are now down by 569 compared to this time last year.

The EIA’s estimate for oil production in the United States fell during the week ending October 9—the last week for which there is data, to 10.5 million barrels of oil per day. U.S. oil production is down 2.6 million bpd from its all-time high reached earlier this year.

Canada’s overall rig count stayed the same this week. Oil and gas rigs in Canada are now at 80 active rigs, and down 63 year on year.
 

loriamen

Moderatore
Membro dello Staff
A proposito di gas: ATTENZIONE!!!

This sell-off was driven by news that the rock barge that sank in the Calcasieu Shipping Channel that leads to the Cameron LNG export plant during Hurricane Delta could not be easily salvaged. As a result, the channel was restricted to shallow-drafted ships with a time frame for full operations up to 3-4 weeks. Additionally, over the weekend, natural gas production has continued to steadily rise, topping 89 BCF/day on Saturday, up nearly 5 BCF/day inside of a week as Gulf Of Mexico output has returned to pre-Delta levels.
 

loriamen

Moderatore
Membro dello Staff
A proposito di gas: ATTENZIONE!!!

This sell-off was driven by news that the rock barge that sank in the Calcasieu Shipping Channel that leads to the Cameron LNG export plant during Hurricane Delta could not be easily salvaged. As a result, the channel was restricted to shallow-drafted ships with a time frame for full operations up to 3-4 weeks. Additionally, over the weekend, natural gas production has continued to steadily rise, topping 89 BCF/day on Saturday, up nearly 5 BCF/day inside of a week as Gulf Of Mexico output has returned to pre-Delta levels.
Riprendendo l'ATTENZIONE sul gas di ieri:
Oggi leggo su NGI:
October 20, 2020
With developments along the Louisiana coast appearing favorable for a ramp-up in export demand, natural gas futures surged in early trading Tuesday. The November Nymex contract was up 11.4 cents to $2.909/MMBtu at around 8:40 a.m. ET.
Liquefied natural gas (LNG) feed gas demand climbed to 8.5 Bcf/d in early morning estimates from Bespoke Weather Services.

“Despite all of the potential issues we heard about the last few days, it is full steam ahead for LNG…and we received word late yesterday that even Cameron would be receiving a tanker to load up, even though the rock barge” obstructing the Calcasieu Ship Channel “has not been cleared,” Bespoke said.

Recent price action demonstrates “just how sensitive the market is to LNG,” a trend that’s likely to continue, according to the firm.

Analysts at EBW Analytics Group noted reports late Monday that the U.S. Coast Guard would be allowing “vessels of all sizes” to navigate the Calcasieu Ship Channel, clearing the way for “the first LNG tanker since early October” to potentially “dock at Cameron today. Shortly thereafter a fully loaded cargo left Sabine Pass, freeing up space for an empty tanker to take its place.

“With other empty tankers waiting offshore, LNG feed gas flows are likely to ramp up rapidly, providing a much needed boost to natural gas prices and driving futures higher,” the EBW analysts said.

QUI le previsioni del tempo fino al 4 novembre in USA:

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https://servedbyadbutler.com/redire...5926b644d139591b5fb53bf7f2af14df1e5&location=
 

loriamen

Moderatore
Membro dello Staff
Natural gas Thursday Forecast
Thursday, October 22, 2020

by Anton Kolhanov of Kolhanov.com

Thursday Forecast​

Uptrend scenario
The uptrend may be expected to continue, while market is trading above support level 2.920, which will be followed by reaching resistance level 3.200.
Downtrend scenario
An downtrend will start as soon, as the market drops below support level 2.920, which will be followed by moving down to support level 2.700.
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Fundamental Analysis​

Difference between supply and demand showing fair price on the level 2.7.

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loriamen

Moderatore
Membro dello Staff

Previsioni sul prezzo del Petrolio​

Dopo la seduta precedente poco felice per il greggio Wti e per il Brent, ieri il petrolio ha ripreso a salire, portandosi rispettivamente intorno ai 40,6 e 42,4 dollari al barile.

Complice il netto incremento dei contagi in questa seconda ondata, ieri il report dell’EIA ha mostrato un netto incremento delle scorte di petrolio, salite di oltre 1,9 milioni di barili. La domanda si è invece contratta a 8,29 milioni di barili al giorno, contro i quasi 9 milioni di barili di due settimane fa.

Con i dati degli ultimi giorni e la tendenza prospettata dalle Autorità internazionali, è difficile prevedere un rialzo della domanda di benzina nel breve termine.

A ciò si aggiunge l’incremento della produzione libica, per circa 500.000 barili al giorno, che potrebbe già passare a 1 milione di barili al giorno entro la fine dell’anno.

Sulla base di questi elementi, il petrolio avrà certamente grandi difficoltà a superare le soglie di resistenza sopra i 43 dollari, sebbene al momento stia mostrando un’inattesa resilienza.

Allo stato attuale, una prima fascia di supporto per il Wti e per il Brent è da ravvisare intorno ai 40 dollari al barile.
 

loriamen

Moderatore
Membro dello Staff

Biden Says He Would “Transition From The Oil Industry”​

- Oct 23, 2020, 11:00 AM CDT

“I would transition from the oil industry, yes,” Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden said during last night’s debate with President Donald Trump in response to a question from his opponent.

“Would he close down the oil industry?” Trump asked Biden, as quoted by the National Review. “Would you close down the oil industry?”

To this, President Trump’s opponent mentioned his plan for a transition away from oil, to which Trump said, “That’s a big statement.”

“It is a big statement, because…the oil industry pollutes, significantly,” Biden responded. “It has to be replaced by renewable energy over time.”

“And I’d stop giving to the oil industry—I’d stop giving them federal subsidies,” the Democratic candidate continued. “[Trump] won’t give federal subsidies to solar and wind. Why are we giving it to the oil industry?”

“Basically what he is saying is he is going to destroy the oil industry,” Trump said in response, as quoted by the AP. “Will you remember that, Texas? Pennsylvania? Oklahoma? Ohio?”

Pennsylvania is especially important for this election. A significant gas producer, the state could swing the election result, which is why it has drawn the pointed attention of both candidates. Earlier this month, it was in Pennsylvania that Trump said Biden planned to ban fracking—the source of Pennsylvania’s gas wealth. Biden has denied he had plans to ban anything, saying he would close federal lands for oil and gas production.

After last night’s debate, the Democratic candidate told reporters he had no plans to ban fossil fuels as a whole, adding that the phaseout he had referred to during the debate would take “a long time”.

The energy aspect of the two candidates’ platforms is a delicate one. Although polls suggest the majority of Americans are concerned about climate change, there are Democratic states that rely on oil and gas production for their livelihood.

By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com
 

loriamen

Moderatore
Membro dello Staff

U.S. And Canadian Oil Rig Counts Continue To Rebound​

By Julianne Geiger - Oct 23, 2020, 12:14 PM CDT

Baker Hughes reported on Friday that the number of oil rigs in the United States rose by 6 to 211.

The total number of active oil and gas rigs increased for the week by 5, with oil rigs rising by 6 and gas rigs falling by 1.

Total oil and gas rigs in the United States are now down by 564 compared to this time last year.

The EIA’s estimate for oil production in the United States fell sharply for the second week in a row for the week ending October 16—the last week for which there is data, to 9.9 million barrels of oil per day. U.S. oil production is down 3.2 million bpd from its all-time high reached earlier this year.

Canada’s overall rig count rose this week as well, by 3. Oil and gas rigs in Canada are now at 83 active rigs, and down 64 year on year.

WTI was trading down on Friday, as was the Brent benchmark, with both set to finish out the week lower than last week as Europe dished out new lockdown measures and several industry reports, including the IEA and OPEC, painted gloomy pictures about oil demand’s slow recovery.

At 11:14 pm EDT, WTI was trading down 0.52% at $40.43—down less than $0.50 per barrel week on week. Brent was trading down 0.40% on the day, at $42.29, down roughly $.60 on the week.
 

loriamen

Moderatore
Membro dello Staff
Lo riporto per la sfacciata partigianeria a favore di Trump e contro Byden!........e questa è la situazione a 10 gg. dalle votazioni!!

Joe Biden Is Coming For You. The Energy Report 10/23/2020
Friday, October 23, 2020

by Phil Flynn of The PRICE Futures Group

In the debate with President Trump, Vice President Biden told the US Oil and Gas industry that he is coming after you! You will be phased out, replaced, not needed in Vice President Joe Biden’s vision of America.
The Vice President says that he will transition away from oil and gas, which means that not only will you pay more money for taxes and substantially higher prices for gasoline and heating your home as home. Vice President Biden’s plan means all Americans will pay significantly higher fees for energy and give up efficiencies. He costs all Americans more money. He is also saying that over 11 million jobs in the oil and gas industry will be obsolete. He also said that he would reenter the Paris Climate Accord that treats China as a developing nation, giving them distinct energy and cash advantages over US energy producers and the US Economy. The Paris accord will force US Energy producers to shut down while allowing China to add more carbon emissions. The Paris Climate accord is like taking wealth from the US and redistributing it to Russia and China. So far, no one in the Paris Climate accord has lived up to its commitments, but Emmi sons have gone down more than those in the Paris accord agreement in the US.
To try to justify his position, he told a story about growing up. Biden said, “MY Response IS THOSE PEOPLE LIVE ON WHAT WE CALL FENCE LINES. HE DOESN’T UNDERSTAND THIS. THEY LIVE NEAR CHEMICAL PLANTS AND REFINERIES THAT POLLUTE. I USED TO LIVE NEAR THAT WHEN I WAS GROWING UP IN CLAYMONT, DELAWARE. THERE ARE MORE OIL REFINERIES IN DELAWARE THAN HOUSTON AT THE TIME. MY MOTHER USED TO DRIVE ME TO SCHOOL; THERE USED TO BE AN OIL SLICK ON THE WINDOW. THAT IS WHY SO MANY PEOPLE IN MY STATE WERE DYING OF CANCER. IT DOESN’T MATTER WHAT YOU ARE PAYING THEM; IT MATTERS HOW YOU KEEP THEM SAFE. Y IMPOSE — YOU IMPOSE RESTRICTIONS ON THE POLLUTANTS COMING OUT OF THE FENCE LINE.”
Yet the Vice President seems to not talk about the environmental downsides and economic risks of so-called renewable fuel. Wind and solar energy do hurt the environment. Mark Mills, a Senior Fellow at the Manhattan Institute, played out some of the issues. He states building wind turbines and solar panels to generate electricity, as well as batteries to fuel electric vehicles, requires, on average, more than ten times the quantity of materials, compared with building machines using hydrocarbons to deliver the same amount of energy to society.
A single electric car contains more cobalt than 1,000 smartphone batteries; the blades on a single wind turbine have more plastic than 5 million smartphones. A solar array that can power one data center uses more glass than 50 million phones.
Replacing hydrocarbons with green machines under current plans—never mind aspirations for far more significant expansion—will vastly increase the mining of various critical minerals worldwide. For example, a single electric car battery weighing 1,000 pounds requires extracting and processing 500,000 pounds of materials. Averaged over a battery’s life, each mile of driving an electric car “consumes” five pounds of earth. Using an internal combustion engine consumes about 0.2 pounds of liquids per mile. He also points out that oil, natural gas, and coal are needed to produce the concrete, steel, plastics, and purified minerals used to build green machines. The energy equivalent of 100 barrels of oil is used in the processes to fabricate a single battery that can store the equivalent of one barrel of oil.
By 2050, with current plans, the quantity of worn-out solar panels—much of it nonrecyclable—will constitute double the tonnage of all today’s global plastic waste, along with over 3 million tons per year of unrecyclable plastics from worn-out wind turbine blades. By 2030, more than 10 million tons per year of batteries will become garbage.
You also have to tell Americans they better get used to less reliability. Take a look at California to get an idea of short-sighted thinking about energy. Rolling blackouts, some of the highest gas and electricity prices in the nation, and they still cannot keep the lights on. The best chance we have to achieve net-zero emissions is Nuclear Power, something Joe Biden oppose.

The Vice President later clarified saying the country needs to transition off fossil fuels does not mean he will impose a ban on the oil industry. But he will cut what he calls subsidies while falsely claiming that the US does not want support for wind and solar. Joe, do you remember President Obama’s approval of a $535 million loan guarantee to Solyndra, a now-defunct solar company? Just asking, Do you remember that China was dumping solar panels into the US market?

Russia yesterday said it was open to another production cut if needed; oil looking like it will test the trading range’s upper end.
 

loriamen

Moderatore
Membro dello Staff
Qui il dibattito tra Trump e Biden sull'energia............mi sembra di ritornare,ai miei tempi, ai dibattiti tra scolari di seconda elementare:

Biden Says He Would “Transition From The Oil Industry”​

“I would transition from the oil industry, yes,” Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden said during last night’s debate with President Donald Trump in response to a question from his opponent.

“Would he close down the oil industry?” Trump asked Biden, as quoted by the National Review. “Would you close down the oil industry?”

To this, President Trump’s opponent mentioned his plan for a transition away from oil, to which Trump said, “That’s a big statement.”
“It is a big statement, because…the oil industry pollutes, significantly,” Biden responded. “It has to be replaced by renewable energy over time.”

“And I’d stop giving to the oil industry—I’d stop giving them federal subsidies,” the Democratic candidate continued. “[Trump] won’t give federal subsidies to solar and wind. Why are we giving it to the oil industry?”

“Basically what he is saying is he is going to destroy the oil industry,” Trump said in response, as quoted by the AP. “Will you remember that, Texas? Pennsylvania? Oklahoma? Ohio?”

Pennsylvania is especially important for this election. A significant gas producer, the state could swing the election result, which is why it has drawn the pointed attention of both candidates. Earlier this month, it was in Pennsylvania that Trump said Biden planned to ban fracking—the source of Pennsylvania’s gas wealth. Biden has denied he had plans to ban anything, saying he would close federal lands for oil and gas production.

After last night’s debate, the Democratic candidate told reporters he had no plans to ban fossil fuels as a whole, adding that the phaseout he had referred to during the debate would take “a long time”.

The energy aspect of the two candidates’ platforms is a delicate one. Although polls suggest the majority of Americans are concerned about climate change, there are Democratic states that rely on oil and gas production for their livelihood.

By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com
 
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