Per informazioni sulla pubblicità su questo sito web: advertising@quellicheinvestono.com

EUR/USD, dove si va a parare ?

loriamen

Moderatore
Membro dello Staff

Will U.S. Retail Sales Drive EUR/USD To Fresh 16-Month Lows?​


By Sunshine Profits (Kathy Lien)Forex1 hour ago (Nov 15, 2021 04:12PM ET)

One of the most important things that recent currency movements have confirmed is that fundamentals matter. The euro dropped to its weakest level since June 2020 because the European Central Bank is one of the most dovish central banks. At a time when central banks around the world are taking big steps to normalize monetary policy, ECB President Christine Lagarde said any tightening measure now would cause more harm than good. EUR/USD has been in a consistent downtrend since the summer. Even though the ECB reduced the size of its Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program, it has become very clear that it is in the back of the line to raise interest rates, far behind the Federal Reserve, Bank of England, Bank of Canada and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand.

Not only has economic data been mixed, but Germany, the Eurozone’s largest economy, is experiencing a vicious fourth COVID-19 wave. New cases are at record highs, with health ministers calling for restrictions to return. Over the weekend, Amsterdam announced a new lockdown to curb the rate of infections, and many investors are wondering if Austria and Germany will follow. Regardless, renewed concerns about COVID-19 in Europe could discourage social activities like dining out and attending concerts and games. The prospect of a hard winter in Europe reinforces the ECB’s cautious outlook and justifies the sharp sell-off in EUR/USD today.

Tuesday’s U.S. retail sales report is one of the most important pieces of data this week, and a strong number could drive EUR/USD to fresh 16-month lows. Inflation has been one of the greatest drivers of policy normalization, and while central bankers have insisted that inflation is “transitory,” it has been a problem longer than most anticipated. The increase in auto and gas prices are widely expected to drive headline spending higher. Shipping costs have increased, food costs have risen and gas prices are at a seven-year high. Excluding autos and gas, demand may have grown more modestly because wage growth slowed. Tomorrow’s U.S. retail sales report could have a significant impact on the euro and other major currencies.

This is also a busy week for sterling, with U.K. labor market, inflation and retail sales numbers due for release. The action kicks off with the employment report on Tuesday. This is the first labor market report since the furlough program ended, and the one of two before the December Bank of England meeting where interest rates could increase. Job and wage growth are expected to slow, but the unemployment rate could improve. If the data beats leading into Wednesday’s inflation report, we could see strong gains in GBP against EUR, JPY and CHF.
The best performing currencies today were the Australian and Canadian dollars. AUD and NZD were lifted by stronger Chinese retail sales and industrial production numbers. Although oil prices declined, the prospect of strong inflation data and a rate hike by the Bank of Canada next year kept the Canadian dollar supported. The Japanese Yen sold off against all of the major currencies except for the Swiss Franc after very disappointing third-quarter GDP numbers. The economy shrank 0.8% versus and expected 0.2% decline. On an annualized basis, this drove GDP growth down 3% versus -0.8% forecast. The Japanese government is widely expected to provide additional fiscal stimulus in the form of cash handouts for 18 and younger, tax breaks and pay hikes for caregivers.
 

condor74

Moderatore
Membro dello Staff
Il cross è tornato sotto alla trendline discendente dai massimi del 2008, che era stata violata al rialzo a novembre 2020 e che aveva fatto da supporto per il ritorno del biglietto verde a marzo 2021. Cross in ipervenduto di RSI 5 ma non estremo. La lower bollinger mensile è a 1.1.

1637157660571.png

Il daily

1637158025054.png
 

condor74

Moderatore
Membro dello Staff
13,59 di Rsi 5 weekly, aggiungo ;)

Il quadro weekly: siamo in ipervenduto importante, come faceva notare @Tony ma un importante supporto è stato rotto e quel doppio massimo fatto tra dicembre 2020 e giugno 2021 sta lì ad incombere e ad alludere a target un po' più profondi degli attuali. Certo sembrerebbe difficile vedere le borse in rally con un dollaro troppo forte, a meno di immaginare afflussi in valuta sull'azionario. Il dollaro forte poi però andrebbe a pesare sulle esportazioni USA e dunque su ricavi ed earnings futuri...

1637158471536.png
 

condor74

Moderatore
Membro dello Staff
Eur/Usd per la prima volta dalla fine di ottobre sopra sma5. Si è arrestato sulla resistenza di sma13.

Se dovesse partire un rally dell'euro o comunque la moneta unica recuperare terreno, ciò sarebbe positivo per le borse.

In questo senso le ultime due sedute del cambio vanno contro sia la narrativa di un'Europa in preda alla nuova variante e dunque prossima a nuovi lockdown; sia contro la caduta delle borse. Se le borse scendessero davvero per i timori di nuovi lockdown la corsa al dollaro come bene rifugio proseguirebbe, a maggior ragione se l'Europa fosse davvero il centro della diffusione. Invece proprio nel giorno in cui l'equity fa la peggior seduta dell'anno, l'Euro mette a segno un potenziale reversal (bullish engulfing). Ora, certo ci sono le paure di una diffusione di Nu anche negli USA, però...

Da monitorare.
 
Alto