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Oil & Natural Gas, seguire l'andamento del petrolio e del gas #crudeoil #WTI #NatGas

waltermasoni

Well-known member

loriamen

Well-known member
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Friday: Nothing but flip-flopping weather data. The overnight and early morning GFS trended further colder Jan 16-23 with an increasingly bullish set up, as show above. However, the European model flipped back milder overnight, losing 15 HDD’s and essentially all the demand it had gained Thursday. As we’ve been mentioning all week, the weather data has been inconsistent, bouncing between milder and colder trends due struggles in determining exactly how much cold air to expect into the northern US Jan 16-23rd. The coming pattern is still expected to be quite bearish through Wednesday due to much warmer than normal temperatures across the southern and eastern US. But colder air is still expected to release out of SW Canada and sweep across the Midwest and Northeast Jan 16-18 for a swing to stronger demand. After a brief break around Jan 20th, another round of cold is expected across the northern US Jan 21-24. At least the data says that’s how it should play out. But the data has been inconsistent, where a shift in the frigid cold pool by just a few hundred miles north or south is causing big changes in forecast demand. This is likely to continue through the weekend, but with the risk being towards colder trends and prices seem to be seeing this risk and up 4 cents this morning to over $2.20. It will be important to see what the 12z midday data shows before the weekend break and if the European models flips back colder.
 

loriamen

Well-known member

Despite the overwhelming loss in TDDs overnight again in ECMWF-EPS (lost ~10 TDDs), natural gas prices surprised everyone by shooting higher, with February contracts now trading above $2.204/MMBtu.
The reasoning for this move today, we believe, has to do with the incoming setup seen in the weather models.
The 10-15 day outlook shows the Alaska ridge, which supports the bullish model signals going forward.
In addition, natural gas prices broke out of the falling wedge yesterday to confirm a technical breakout.
We are looking for $2.4 to $2.5 in the near-term with any sustained cold likely pushing the upside target to $2.65 to $2.70.
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loriamen

Well-known member
Che cos'è il Vortice Polare:

Il Vortice Polare (Polar Vortex in inglese) è un'estesa area di bassa pressione, semi-permanente, collocata sopra il Polo Nord e al cui interno è racchiusa tutta l'aria fredda che si produce costantemente sulla calotta artica. Il suo comportamento non è sempre identico ed è a sua volta influenzato dalle dinamiche troposferiche presenti alle medie latitudini. Se il vortice è compatto, come in queste settimane, il freddo rimarrà confinato al Polo Nord. Se invece esso dovesse andare in crisi, come è accaduto per esempio verso la fine dello scorso inverno, gli effetti possono essere molteplici.
Al momento sta prendendo sempre più piede l'ipotesi di un'irruzione gelida in discesa dal Circolo Polare Artico tra la fine della seconda e l'inizio della terza decade del mese in corso.
 
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loriamen

Well-known member
The commodity rallied despite a disappointing -44 BCF EIA-reported storage withdrawal that was exceptionally bearish versus expectations and also came in well below most analyst expectations. Instead, the rally was driven by the prospect of an impending pattern change that could drive much colder temperatures southward and boost heating demand. However, the bulls were not able to mount a full-stage assault and trigger a short squeeze as the prospects of a return of arctic air remained uncertain throughout the week. The GFS model suite--that is, the Operation and Ensemble runs--were considerably colder than the ECMWF ENS as these models consistently called for a stronger Alaskan Ridge that would allow cold, Canadian air to flood southward east of the Rockies.
Insomma, per il gelo, siamo ancora al condizionale. Aspettiamo che il GFS e l'ECMWF si mettano d'accordo!
 

loriamen

Well-known member
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Monday: Much lighter than normal national demand will continue the next several days as very mild conditions for January stretches from Texas to the Mid-Atlanitic Coast. With highs of 60s to 80s for Texas, South, and Southeast, and with 40s and 50s for S. Great Lakes and much of the Northeast Coast, demand simply won’t be very strong. There is frigid Arctic air over the N. Rockies and Plains, but lower population areas. Demand will be much stronger next week when colder air spreads across the Midwest and Northeast. Essentially, another 6 days of light national demand then stronger. Although, there are weather model diffrences regarding exactly how cold the last ten days of January will be, so that needs close watching. Image shows balmy southern US highs for Tuesday.
 

waltermasoni

Well-known member
Go to winter!

Tuesday: The overall weather data maintained a theme of a not nearly cold enough pattern through Jan 19th, a nice cold shot across the northern and eastern US Jan 20-23rd, a break between cold shots Jan 24-25, followed by another strong cold shot Jan 27-31st. Overall, a much better pattern Jan 20-31 compared to the exceptionally bearish pattern of the past three weeks. To our view, if prices rally and hold over $2.20, this suggests the nat gas markets view weather patterns as cold enough Jan 20-31st.82A26F49-7BA9-476A-8173-D34EC317E6E6.png
 

loriamen

Well-known member
Natural Gas - Cold Blast Is Coming, Go Long Now
HFIR Energy
HFI Research Natural Gas
The #1 natural gas research service on Seeking Alpha.


Summary
In winter gas trading, the algos pay more attention to heating demand changes while the physical gas traders pay more attention to the trend change in the weather models.
And in the latest update in particular, ECMWF-EPS gained ~10 TDDs over the last 24 hours only to see natural gas prices sell-off.
We have a confluence of factors that are making us extremely bullish on natural gas prices in the near term today.
We just went long another 50% in UGAZ making our position sizing in this trade 200%.
The cold blast is coming as the 15-day outlook and ECMWF-EPS long-range showed bullish weather to continue into the first week of Feb.

 
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loriamen

Well-known member
The Quick Correction Indicates An Oil Bottom Is Near
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Conclusion
The fundamentals indicate an oil price bottom is near. Not only are we trading where oil storage based fair value say we should be at, but the very low Saudi crude exports so far this month indicates to us that the real impact of Abqaiq is only being felt now. This combined with relatively bullish US crude storage projections for the rest of January are turning us more bullish in the near term.
What we are basically looking for now is a technical bottom to take place before initiating a long UWT position.

 

loriamen

Well-known member
Tempo di rimettersi SHORT su WTI o aspettare per vedere se ci saranno reazioni iraniane?

The risk of oil supply disruptions from around the world has diminished, and rising non-OPEC production provides a “solid base from which to react to any escalation in geopolitical tension.”

In its January Oil Market Report, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said that there is plenty of oil sloshing around, despite the U.S. and Iran nearly going to war. “We cannot know how the geopolitical situation will play out over time, but for now the risk of a major threat to oil supplies appears to have receded,” the IEA said. “As was the case following the attacks on Saudi Arabia in September, once the initial fears of a sustained supply shock subsided, the Brent price rapidly gave up its $4/bbl spike.”
Oil inventories held in OECD countries is 9 million barrels above the five-year average, and there are also plenty of strategic stockpiles to call upon in the event of an outage, the agency said.
Still, while geopolitical risk has “faded,” it has not gone away entirely. The Trump administration may have refrained from all-out war against Iran, but the assassination of General Soleimani took the confrontation to new heights.
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“Recent events have shown that Iraq is a potentially vulnerable supplier, just as its strategic importance has grown,” the IEA said. The agency noted that Iraqi oil exports have doubled since 2010, from 2 million barrels per day (mb/d) to 4 mb/d. China and India each import roughly 1 mb/d of supply from Iraq.
“Iraq’s rising capacity has been very welcome as sanctions have reduced Iran’s exports to only 0.3 mb/d and Venezuela’s production has collapsed,” the IEA wrote. Left unsaid was that those outages were both the result of U.S. sanctions
Putting aside the geopolitical risk, the agency said that prices will likely remain subdued this year because non-OPEC supply continues to grow faster than demand. Non-OPEC countries will add 2.1 mb/d this year, while demand will rise by 1.2 mb/d.
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The bottom line is that OPEC+ still faces a predicament. “Even if they adhere strictly to the cuts, there is still likely to be a strong build in inventories during the first half of 2020,” the IEA said. “OPEC crude production would fall to 29.3 mb/d in January if there were to be full compliance and steady output from Libya, Iran and Venezuela. That is still 700 kb/d above the 1Q20 call on OPEC crude and 900 kb/d above the 2Q20 call.”
In other words, unless OPEC+ cuts further, the oil market faces persistent oversupply in the first half of this year.
 
Alto