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Oil, seguire l'andamento del petrolio per chi non lo trada


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Situazione "immutata" da quanto scritto lunedì.
Si è sempre in prossimità della barriera psicologica dei $52 , a lambire il limite inferiore della Bollinger, perchè è sceso di valore.
Nonostante la situazione di ipervenduto non ci sono grossi spunti al rialzo.

Una rottura convinta dei $52 aprirebbe, come già detto il tentativo di violare i $50 con spike fino a $48

Al rialzo fondamentale riprendere i $55, prima di parlare di inversione del trend.



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Bulls Beware: The 2020 Oil Market Is Quickly Turning Ugly

Oil bulls thought 2020 would be their year.

After half a decade of lower spending on new projects, oil production growth was supposed to slow to a trickle just as demand was supercharged by a once-in-a-generation shake up in the shipping fuel market. Many market commentators predicted that if $100 a barrel-oil was going to make a come back, it would happen in 2020.

Excitement is fading fast. The first official assessment of 2020 comes from the International Energy Agency on Friday, but a first look at forecasts from consultants and traders for supply and demand balances show persistent surpluses, not the deficit that was expected to underpin rising prices.

The culprits: rising shale production, a slowing global economy and the prospect of a deepening trade war.

"The balances for 2020 were already worrisome, and the downgrade in demand we are contemplating put them potentially in the ugly category," said Roger Diwan, an OPEC watcher at consultant IHS Markit Ltd.

Consultants and oil traders have already taken a first stab, and their supply and demand results show, at best, a balanced market. Many forecast supply will exceed consumption, perhaps by a large margin.

The oil market, showing characteristics typical of an equity market, is already starting to reflect the potential for a surplus in 2020. Despite a tight physical market due to Russia’s pipeline contamination crisis and U.S. sanctions on Iran and Venezuela, oil prices briefly dipped below $60 last week, down more than 20 percent from a high above $75 in late April.
"The market is asking why it should bother going long for just three months when the future looks bleak," said Amrita Sen, chief oil analyst at Energy Aspects Ltd.

The bearish outlook for next year is a problem for the OPEC+ alliance led by Saudi Arabia and Russia. If the 2020 forecast proves correct, the group may be forced to keep in place its output cut far longer than originally anticipated to prevent a surge in global oil inventories.
The OPEC+ alliance is set to meet in the next few weeks in Vienna to discuss its production policy for the second half of 2019.
The bulls weren’t completely wrong in their analysis for next year: the shipping fuel changes, known as IMO 2020, are all but certain to boost demand for diesel, perhaps pushing that particular corner of the petroleum market into a deficit. However, supply growth, fueled by a resilient U.S. shale industry, continues to surprise to the upside.

Market Dynamic
"The dynamic of the market has changed because of shale," Ben van Beurden, the boss of Royal Dutch Shell Plc, said in a panel at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum last week.
What neither bulls nor bears could anticipate is U.S. President Donald Trump and his erratic policies, throwing wrench after wrench into the gears of the global economy. Earlier this month, the International Monetary Fund cut its forecast for economic growth in China -- the engine of demand for commodities -- to 6% next year, the lowest since 1990 and less than half the peak of 14.2% in 2007.

"There is growing evidence of a sharper-than-expected slowdown in demand," said Martijn Rats, oil analyst at Morgan Stanley in London. Across the world’s top oil consumers, year-on-year consumption growth came to a halt in March. April demand figures, still preliminary, also show little increase.

The first tentative glances into 2020 by oil consultants are nearly unanimous about the prospect of oversupply -- a view shared in private by major commodity trading houses. The surpluses are all the more remarkable because none is predicting a recovery in Iranian and Venezuelan output. Over the last year, the combined output of the two troubled OPEC producers has dropped roughly 2.2 million barrels a day -- equal to what Germany consumes.

S&P Global Platts, the owner of what was previously named PIRA Energy consultants, put the surplus next year at around 400,000 barrels a day in a report to clients in May. The Energy Information Administration, the statistical arm of the U.S. Department of Energy, sees a 100,000 barrel-a-day excess. And Energy Aspects, another influential consultant popular with hedge funds and big trading houses, sees a "large" stock-build of 500,000 barrels a day. IHS Markit expects a total surplus of 800,000 barrels a day next year.

The surpluses, however, mask notable differences within the petroleum market, with most consultants anticipating a larger overhang in refined products than in crude.
Although the Paris-based IEA hasn’t yet published its first detailed look into 2020, it offered some glimpses of its thinking earlier this year when it published a 5-year outlook from 2019 to 2024. In that report, it forecast oil demand next year at 102 million barrels a day, and production from non-OPEC countries plus condensates from OPEC at 71.9 million barrels. That, effectively, will leave a gap for OPEC crude to fill of just 30.1 million barrels, close to the cartel’s current production.
Since the publication of the report, the IEA has raised its non-OPEC supply view for 2019, and lowered its demand forecast, suggesting that if the cartel keeps pumping at current levels, production will exceed demand in 2020.



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Un aggiornamento grafico, ma si possono ripetere le parole di una settimana fa.

""Una rottura convinta dei $52 aprirebbe, come già detto il tentativo di violare i $50 con spike fino a $48
Al rialzo fondamentale riprendere i $55, prima di parlare di inversione del trend. ""



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DSI crude ieri: 14 (sotto 20, valori estremi)

Medie mobili: a 5gg = 24,2, a 10gg = 25, a 21gg = 44,0


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Fitch Ratings Updates Oil Price and Lowers Gas Price Assumptions

Increased geo-political tensions and economic uncertainty are likely to contribute to oil price volatility, but our year-average base-case expectations remain unchanged, Fitch Ratings says. We have lowered our natural gas price assumptions, reflecting reduced marginal production costs in the US and increased LNG supplies globally.

The toughened sanctions against Iran, production declines in Venezuela and the conflict in Libya contributed to Brent price recovery to around USD75/bbl by end-April from USD50/bbl at end-2018. However, the price fell to USD60/bbl in early June due to deteriorating expectations for global economic growth and increased trade war risks. We expect the global economy to decelerate from 3.2% in 2018 to 2.8% in 2019 and 2.7% in 2020.
Oil and Gas Price Assumptions
Stress Case
Base Case
Henry Hub (USD/mcf)
Henry Hub (USD/mcf)
NBP (USD/mcf)6.004.504.504.004.754.255.004.50
NBP (USD/mcf)
WTI (USD/bbl)45.0050.0042.5042.5045.0045.0047.5047.50
Brent (USD/bbl)50.0055.0045.0045.0047.5047.5050.0050.00
WTI (USD/bbl)64.9557.5057.5057.5057.5055.0055.0055.0055.00
Brent (USD/bbl)71.0065.0065.0062.5062.5060.0060.0057.5057.50
Source: Fitch Ratings

Nevertheless, we expect OPEC+ to continue to manage supply to avoid large supply-demand imbalances. We believe that the OPEC+ deal will be extended until at least the end of this year, though its parameters could change. As a result, we expect the market to stay broadly in balance, and assume annual average prices will remain in line with our existing base-case assumptions. Year-to-date average prices (Brent: USD66/bbl) are consistent with our assumption of USD65/bbl for 2019.

Many large Middle Eastern producers (such as the UAE and Kuwait) should be able to balance their budgets comfortably under Fitch’s base case assumptions for 2019-2020, except Saudi Arabia, the “swing” producer. Saudi Arabia requires Brent to be priced above USD80/bbl, hence its decision to produce below its OPEC+ quota, putting upward pressure on crude prices.

In the longer term we assume average prices to moderate to USD57.5/bbl for Brent and USD55/bbl for WTI as OPEC+ policies may become less efficient over time. The differential between Brent and WTI will narrow as transportation constraints gradually ease. We expect US upstream companies to remain profitable at these price levels, assuming the current cost base and achieved efficiency gains. We expect production growth in the US to meet most of the additional global demand in the next few years as it does now. At the same time the responsiveness of US shale to current prices makes the scenario of oil prices falling consistently below USD50/bbl significantly less likely.




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Dati settimanali leggermente meglio delle attese, ma al momento c'è stato un rimbalzo di corto respiro che non sposta di molto la situazione.

10:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories -3.106M-1.077M2.206M
10:30 USD Crude Oil Imports -0.444M-0.140M
10:30 USD Cushing Crude Oil Inventories 0.642M2.096M
10:30 USD Distillate Fuel Production 0.132M-0.165M
10:30 USD EIA Weekly Distillates Stocks -0.551M0.712M-1.000M
10:30 USD Gasoline Production 0.147M0.227M
10:30 USD Heating Oil Stockpiles -0.318M0.009M
10:30 USD Gasoline Inventories -1.692M0.935M0.764M


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Analista Goldman Sachs intervistato su Cnbc lancia un target price a 74$ per fine anno. State attentissimi
Lo stesso analista - non un altro, lo stesso, il responsabile dell'analisi sulle commodities - sentito ieri sempre da Cnbc, ha detto che l'andamento del prezzo dell'oil in queste settimane è indicativo di una recessione imminente.
Successo l'anno scorso in autunno, in prossimità dei massimi. Poi venne il secondo messaggio, in prossimità dei minimi.

Sempre lui verrà più tardi su Cnbc ad indicarci dove andrà il prezzo dell'oil nei mesi a venire. Inutile dire che sono tutt'orecchie.


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La tensione USA-Iran ha dato il pretesto per un importante riposizionamento del prezzo dell'oil WTI

Al rialzo un'area chiave da monitorare è $59,25 dove passano la media a 50 giorni, il lato superiore della Bollinger, la resistenza del canale discendente.
Un suo deciso superamento è un forte campanello di allarme per un trend in ascesa dovuto a cause geo.politiche.

Il placarsi delle tensione vedrebbe il WTI tornare almeno sulla mediana della Bollinger area $54,25



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A distanza di una settimana si nota come effettivamente l'area $59,25 , rapidamente raggiunta, si sta dimostrando "chiave di volta" per il proseguo del trend.

Se le notizie politiche saranno favorevoli, allentamento dello scontro con la Cina, o peggioramento con l'Iran, riunione OPEC con conferma del supporto da parte della Russia al taglio della produzione, il prossimo target dovrebbe essere area $63,25

Come pavimento di una correzione ribassista rimane IMHO la mediana della Bollinger in area $54,75



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Buona sintesi di cosa è successo in seno all'OPEC , dove la Russia conta sempre di più, anche se non ne fa "formalmente" parte.

OPEC Extends Output Cuts Into 2020 as Marathon Meeting Ends

OPEC will extend production cuts into 2020, attempting to buoy oil prices as the world’s leading exporters fret about the outlook for global demand growth and the relentless rise in output from America’s shale fields.

After more than 10 hours of meetings, ministers confirmed an agreement to extend existing production curbs for nine months. But the talks were marred by hours of wrangling between Iran and other members over a charter enshrining the OPEC+ alliance. Eventually, a compromise was reached.

Speaking a press conference after the meeting ended, Saudi Arabian Oil Minister Khalid Al-Falih said commitment to the nine-month extension was "unequivocal."

Originally envisioned as a short-term fix in 2017 to drain excess global stockpiles, the repeated decisions to keep rolling the cuts forward shows the challenge of controlling the oil market in the age of shale. While the strategy has succeeded in raising prices, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries’ share of the global oil market has fallen to the lowest since 1991.

Oil gave up gains made earlier in the day as the OPEC meeting dragged on. As the meeting broke up crude oil futures traded 0.7% higher at $65.19 a barrel.

By pushing through an extension until March 2020, Saudi Arabia is seeking to avoid cliffhanger meetings, when the group gathers only days -- or even hours -- before a round of curbs expire, according to a delegate briefed on the strategy. OPEC will meet before the end of the year, perhaps in December, giving the cartel a cushion of several months between its next meeting and the end of the agreement.

For Moscow, there’s an extra incentive to extend the curbs by nine months as Russian oil companies struggle to raise production over the winter. By extending the deal into 2020, Russia could be in a better position to pump more during the spring of next year. The idea of a longer-than-expected extension was first mooted by President Vladimir Putin after he met Saudi Arabia’s crown prince at the G-20 summit in Japan on Saturday.

OPEC ministers meeting at the organization’s secretariat also agreed to a second term for Secretary-General Mohammad Barkindo, whose three-year tenure comes up for renewal in August. The compromise charter for a long-term alliance with non-OPEC partners will now be returned to national governments for ratification.

Since OPEC joined forces in 2016 with other producers including Russia, Kazakhstan and Mexico, they have sought to establish an enduring basis for cooperation. But Iran has voiced unhappiness with the dominance that non-member Russia -- not to mention regional rival Saudi Arabia -- exert over OPEC policy.

Soaring Shale

The decision to extend production curbs through next March comes as the International Energy Agency and other market watchers peg back forecasts for demand amid sluggish growth in China and India. At the same time, American shale production has set fresh records, putting the U.S. on the brink of becoming a net oil exporter.

“The oil market is getting excited about the cut extension, but OPEC appears more and more worried about demand,” said Andrew Dodson, founder of commodity hedge fund Philipp Oil.

The current version of the OPEC+ deal calls for production curbs of 1.2 million barrels a day, though the alliance has cut more than it pledged as U.S. sanctions on Iran and Venezuela slashed output from both countries.

Saudi Arabia has also unilaterally made deeper curbs, pumping 9.73 million barrels a day in June, according to a Bloomberg survey of officials, analysts and ship-tracking data. That compares with its OPEC+ ceiling of 10.3 million.
Saudi Oil Minister Khalid Al-Falih said Monday that the kingdom would continue to produce below 10 million barrels a day in July. Compliance among the OPEC+ group as a whole will also improve in the second half, he said.


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Riprendendo l'ultimo grafico, per un aggiornamento, l'area $59,5 (dove passava il lato superiore della Bollinger e una trend line discendente di medio) si è realmente dimostrata un'area chiave, come ipotizzato.

Respinto il WTI sta cercando una direzione.
Al rialzo ha come test $58,5 , e solo se superato avrà poi la possibilità di ripuntare al lato superiore della Bollinger

Al ribasso c'è da dover romper la mediana della Bollinger in area $56,25 , prima di poter ipotizzare una spinta ribassista che abbia la forza di portare l'iol sulla trend line in area $52,5



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WTI al test di area 59$ dove passa sma100 daily (59.1286 mentre scrivo). Può essere interessante notare che sma10 ha marginalmente incrociato al rialzo sma50, sempre sul grafico daily. MACD e RSI al rialzo


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Sul quadro giornaliero, per il WTI ieri superamento di alcune resistenze chiave: la trendline discendente dai livelli di aprile 2019, sma100, e l'area 58.5-59.5 già individuata da Magician. Si punta alla bollinger superiore (61.8869 mentre scrivo) e alla costruzione di un canale ascendente, imho. L'indebolimento del dollaro, se duraturo, dovrebbe aiutare.


Peraltro, pur dovendo attendere la chiusura della settimana, anche il quadro weekly sembra positivo. Anche qui abbiamo al momento il superamento al rialzo della trendline discendente, bollinger mediana e sma100.