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Operare sull'oro: GLD, GDX e gli ETF sul gold e sui gold miners

loriamen

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L’Oro ci manda un chiaro messaggio: il mondo è nei guai!
pubblicato il 28/07/2020 12:00


Se guardiamo il grafico dell’oro adesso sembra impossibile, ma ad un certo punto, durante la pandemia, il prezzo dell’oro era quasi in caduta libera.

Era curioso, in fin dei conti la pandemia si stava abbattendo sull’economia globale senza pietà, ed infatti, poco tempo dopo, accadde quello che in molti attendevano, ovvero, il prezzo dell’oro mise a segno uno tra i più grandi rally che la storia ricordi, chiudendo la passata ottava al di sopra dei 1900 dollari per oncia ad un soffio dal massimo storico registrato nel 2011.

I fattori in gioco sono molti: il virus ha senza dubbio scatenato una fortissima richiesta di beni rifugio, e di grande importanza si sono rivelati anche gli stimoli monetari e fiscali, i provvedimenti atti a sostenere la spesa e l’esacerbarsi della tensione tra Stati Uniti e Cina; questi elementi, insieme, hanno anche indotto una certa preoccupazione a proposito di una eventuale stagflazione in grado di prendere piede in alcune aree del mondo sviluppato.

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Negli USA, dove il virus imperversa ancora, questa discussione si sta estendendo: gli investitori si attendono un aumento dell’inflazione nei prossimi anni, mentre solo a marzo le attese erano in senso opposto: attualmente queste attese hanno raggiunto l’1,5% e, seppur siamo al di sotto dei livelli pre virus ed al di sotto del target al 2% della Fed, si tratta di un livello superiore di un punto rispetto allo 0,59% corrisposto dai Treasury a 10 anni di riferimento.

“I tassi reali bassi sono stati il vero driver che ha guidato il rialzo dei prezzi dell’oro - spiega Edward Moya, analista di mercato presso Oanda Corp - e questi tassi continuano a scendere senza segni di inversione a breve termine. Gli investitori, inoltre, sono anche attratti dall’oro in quanto prevedono che una eventuale stagflazione indurrà la Fed ad agire nuovamente”.


Gli investitori al dettaglio, nel mentre, hanno contribuito a far decollare le partecipazioni in ETF aventi l’oro come sottostante: tali partecipazioni hanno registrato il 18° aumento settimanale consecutivo, la serie più estesa dal 2006 ad oggi, mentre l’oro ha concluso la passata ottava con il settimo guadagno settimanale consecutivo, e gli analisti non si attendono un’inversione di trend a breve termine, con gli esperti di settore che ormai da mesi prevedono un enorme rialzo dell’oro: ad aprile, ad esempio, Bank of America prevedeva un prezzo dell’oro a 3000 dollari per oncia entro 18 mesi.

Gli analisti di Bank of America fornirono la loro audace previsione dopo il calo delle quotazioni dell’oro di marzo, un calo determinato dalla necessità, da parte degli investitori, di reperire liquidità per coprire le perdite registrate in altri asset, ma poco tempo dopo il metallo giallo tornò a mostrare i muscoli dopo il massiccio intervento della Federal Reserve.

Questa non è di certo la prima volta in cui l’oro riceve sostegno dall’operato della banca centrale: da dicembre 2008 a giugno 2011, la Fed ha acquistato 2,3 trilioni di dollari di debito ed ha tenuto i costi di prestito vicino allo zero per cento, nel tentativo di sostenere la crescita, contribuendo a far correre i prezzi dell’oro al precedente record di 1.921,17 dollari per oncia registrato a settembre 2011.

“La crisi di un decennio fa riguardava le banche -
spiega Afshin Nabavi, responsabile delle negoziazioni presso MKS PAMP Group che vede l'oro puntare verso i 2.000 dollari - ma questa volta non si vede luce al fondo del tunnel, almeno fino alle elezioni di novembre”.

Fonte Bloomberg
 

loriamen

Moderatore
Membro dello Staff
COVID-19 e oro: un disastro per la catena di approvvigionamento
REDAZIONE9 ore faMercati


La pandemia di coronavirus ha fatto conoscere a tutti cosa sono le catene di approvvigionamento (supply chains). Cioè quell’insieme di cose e persone che consentono ad un prodotto o ad un servizio di arrivare al consumatore finale.

Naturalmente, una catena è forte esattamente quanto il suo anello più debole. Nel caso dell’oro, le misure di lockdown a seguito del COVID-19 hanno mostrato proprio questo, mettendo in crisi produttori e utenti finali.

L’aumento della domanda da parte degli investitori in concomitanza con un’offerta limitata, ha lanciato i prezzi verso l’alto, improntando il mercato al rialzo.

Dove la catena è entrata in crisi?
Ma dove si sono verificati i maggiori problemi lungo la catena di fornitura del metallo giallo? Innanzitutto, nelle miniere che hanno interrotto la produzione a causa dell’alto rischio per il personale di contrarre il COVID-19. Inoltre, le rigide normative di viaggio hanno limitato la spedizione di oro, aumentando i costi di consegna.


Di conseguenza, le raffinerie a valle e i commercianti si sono trovati con un’offerta limitata e un aumento dei prezzi di consegna. Tutti costi che si sono riversati sugli utenti finali.

Nel frattempo, gli investitori si sono rivolti a beni rifugio come l’oro, per proteggersi dalla crisi economica globale. Questa forte domanda ha riguardato futures, ETF (Exchange Traded Funds), lingotti e monete. Ma, dove l’intero sistema è entrato in crisi è nella fornitura di oro fisico.

I più grandi magazzini di oro del mondo
In una situazione tanto difficile, nei più grandi magazzini del mondo si sono registrate parecchie tensioni. Parliamo delle Bullion banks del Regno Unito, che sono in possesso di grandi scorte di oro, pari a 10 mesi della produzione mineraria di tutto il mondo. Per completare il quadro, quattro delle più grandi raffinerie d’oro del mondo si trovano in Svizzera, che di conseguenza riveste un ruolo determinante nella catena di approvvigionamento dell’oro.

Ecco come la pandemia di COVID-19 ha creato una tempesta perfetta per l’oro, interrompendo la catena di approvvigionamento globale e facendo esplodere la domanda da parte degli investitori.
 

loriamen

Moderatore
Membro dello Staff
Tuesday, July 28, 2020

by Ilan-Levy Mayer of Cannon Trading Company, Inc.


Precious metals volatility is spiking with a big upside breakout and large intra-day volatility. Some traders look for volatility and some shy away.

below you will see a 30 minutes chart of gold futures with indicators/ conditions I like to use when it comes to trading.
Down arrow = Potential sell
Up Arrow = Potential buy
Blue Square = possible buy
Red Square = possible sell

These indicators appear BEFORE the bar opens.
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loriamen

Moderatore
Membro dello Staff
Oro, Cina: in aumento le importazioni via Hong Kong
Articolo pubblicato il 29/07/2020 15:00:00


Le importazioni nette di oro della Cina via Hong Kong si mostrano in aumento, nel mese di giugno, rispetto al mese di maggio: questo è quanto evidenziano i dati diffusi nei giorni passati dal Census and Statistics Department di Hong Kong.

Analizzando i volumi si evince che le importazioni nette di oro della Cina, via Hong Kong, si attestano a +0.87 tonnellate, nel mese di giugno, contro un mesi di maggio particolarmente deludente (-1,5 tonnellate
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Nel mese di aprile le importazioni nette di oro oggetto di questo articolo si attestavano addirittura a -10.3 tonnellate: si tratta della prima volta in cui le importazioni si sono rivelate inferiori alle esportazioni almeno dal 2011.

Le importazioni totali di oro a giugno, attraverso Hong Kong, sono aumentate del 147,8% a 5,7 tonnellate contro le 2,3 tonnellate registrate nel mese di maggio.

La Cina importa anche oro via Shanghai e Pechino.

Fonte Reuters
 

loriamen

Moderatore
Membro dello Staff
Ripreso un cip di gold in lev long!.........Visto che:

An impending equity bear market will ultimately push gold price to $4,500 – Bloomberg Intelligence

Wednesday July 29, 2020 11:30

The Federal Reserve has pumped trillions of dollars to stabilize the U.S. economy and financial markets devastated by the COVID-19 pandemic. With that trend expected to continue for the foreseeable future, one market strategist said the best way not to fight the central bank is by investing in precious metals.

In an interview with Kitco News Mike McGlone, senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, said the gold market is looking a little stretched. Prices have pushed to a record high and within striking distance of $2,000. He added that fundamentally, gold is nowhere near overvalued levels as the U.S. central bank continues to pour money into financial markets


McGlone said that he would recommend investors look to buy gold on dips as the price could continue to hover around $2,000 through the U.S. November elections.

"In the short term, we have gold about 21% above its 52-week mean, that's the most since the peak in 2011," he said. "You don't want to be the first buyer at these levels. Anytime gold gets this high above its 52-week average, you got to expect consolidation."

Although gold investors should be a little more strategic with their buying, McGlone said that they shouldn't lose sight of the bigger picture, which is materially higher gold prices. McGlone reiterated his call that gold will needs to get “stupidly” expensive before this rally ends and that could mean prices above $4,000 an ounce.

"Basically, after 2008, gold dropped around $700 and then it rallied around three times to the peak in 2011," he said. "So just a simple rhyme of history means we get to near $4,500 and it's about time. You just have to look at debt to GDP, look at central bank balance sheets, and they're just on an upward trajectory."

As to what gets gold to those levels, McGlone said that investors should continue to watch equity markets. With bonds providing investors with no yield, a bear market in equities would drive gold's safe-haven appeal, he said.

"Now the rock is beating stocks. There's a sense in the market that the bull market in stocks is over… and gold should take off," he said. "That, to me, is the next big trade."


Although the Federal Reserve's unprecedented monetary policy measures are artificially driving stocks higher, McGlone said this factor is seeing diminishing returns. He added that it's only a matter of time before the effects of the Fed's money printing wears off.

"The S&P 500 is almost up 200%, 300% over the last ten years. It just can't continue to do that. Not without strong, solid economic growth earnings," he said. "Yes, we're getting a bid from monetary, fiscal stimulus, but that is dicey and that's not going to last."

By Neils Christensen
 

loriamen

Moderatore
Membro dello Staff
Oro: gli improbabili acquirenti che sostengono il rally!
Articolo pubblicato il 30/07/2020 12:00:00


Il rally dell’oro verso nuovi massimi storici sta raccogliendo il sostegno di una base sempre più ampia di fondi pensione, compagnie assicurative e gestori privati.

I gestori che si occupano di portafogli a lungo termine per un valore complessivo di trilioni di dollari si stanno interessando all’oro in un momento di mercato connotato da una carenza di rendimento e proprio questa ampia gamma di compratori trova posto alle spalle di questo straordinario rally del metallo giallo, mentre i compratori tradizionali in India e Cina rimangono sostanzialmente alla finestra.

In passato, quando le obbligazioni restituivano un rendimento soddisfacente, gli investitori professionali si tenevano alla larga dall’oro, in quanto un buon portafoglio costituito da azioni ed obbligazioni genera un rendimento affidabile con i due asset in oggetto che tendono a bilanciarsi nelle diverse fasi di mercato, mentre l’oro, che non offre una resa, non solo è difficilmente valutabile, ma è anche costoso da conservare.

Ora la situazione è cambiata, e le condizioni del mercato hanno indotto più di un operatore di settore a diffidare dai portafogli tradizionali, ragion per cui la copertura dalla volatilità dei mercati azionari viene cercata altrove.

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"I titoli di stato sicuri hanno sempre avuto un ruolo molto importante in termini di diversificazione del portafoglio e continueranno a svolgerlo, ma dobbiamo riconoscere che la loro potenza sta diminuendo a causa del basso livello assoluto di rendimenti - spiega Geraldine Sundstrom, asset allocator presso Pacific Investment Management Co. - dobbiamo diversificare ulteriormente e cercare un rifugio sicuro oltre i titoli di stato e, visto che i tassi saranno mantenuti molto bassi per gli anni a venire, l’oro sembra l’asset adeguato”.
La scorsa settimana, la banca privata svizzera Lombard Odier & Cie SA ha dichiarato di aver aggiunto oro alla sua "asset allocation strategica”, mentre Arbuthnot Latham & Co., una banca privata che gestisce denaro per clienti, inclusi trust e pensioni personali, afferma di aver acquistato più azioni di società minerarie come procura per il metallo prezioso.
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Anche in queste condizioni il volume di oro detenuto dagli operatori professionali è considerato basso, ed equivalente a solamente lo 0,6% dei 40 trilioni di dollari gestiti dai fondi a livello globale, ragion per cui anche se questa posizione dovesse raddoppiare non sarebbe da considerarsi estrema (Joni Teves, UBS Group).

"È strano il motivo per cui i fondi pensione vorrebbero acquistare oro - non offre entrate o dividendi e costa denaro da conservare…” (Mark Dowding, CIO presso BlueBay Asset Management)

In questo caso a suscitare appetito per il metallo giallo potrebbe essere molto semplicemente la sua capacità di “far bene” in periodi contraddistinti da inflazione elevata o da crolli delle piazze azionarie, due contesti che potrebbero verificarsi nel breve termine.

Una base di investitori più ampia, inoltre, potrebbe sostenere l’oro in caso di correzioni dei prezzi, in quanto, se le quotazioni dovessero cedere terreno, vi sarebbero molti investitori interessati all’acquisto.

“Più bassi sono i rendimenti reali e più il dollaro è debole e più l'oro è attraente - spiega Charles Diebel, gestore presso Mediolanum International Funds - ed i normali investitori, quelli al dettaglio, quelli che acquistano gioielli, non guardano a questi elementi, a farlo sono gli investitori a lungo termine in cerca di diversificazione”.
 

loriamen

Moderatore
Membro dello Staff


"One way our brain helps keep us safe is to protect us from an awareness of our weaknesses. The brain believes that it is better to be falsely confident than recognize the real risks. This protective mechanism tends to work against us in trading." Kenneth Reid, Ph.D​

MINDING THE MIND

The mind can play tricks on us. Intuitive Trading is an attempt to mind read the market, which makes us susceptible to whipsaws. Hindsight Bias causes traders to underestimate the difficulty of trading, while Competency Bias causes us to over-estimate our abilities. These are mental banana peels that set us up for a fall.

INTUITIVE TRADING

Intuitive trading is a natural response to excessive randomness and non-linearity in the market. But making informed guesses is not the same as formulating a rule-based pattern-recognition system that gives a trader a true edge. Without a rule-based plan, intuitive traders expend a great deal of energy mindreading the market, which will not improve your odds of success. In fact, professional traders make a good living exploiting the emotionally-driven behavior of intuitive amateurs.
....Read More by clicking here


Precious Metals: ETFs vs Futures

By The Small Exchange


Gold is hanging around its most expensive prices since futures on the commodity started trading almost half a century ago in 1974. While the price levels have increased, the action around gold has not. Volatility has only risen slightly in gold products, and it is in fact still below its historical average. As gold feels out new highs in a more calculated manner, its metallic companion silver has almost doubled in volatility.



Whether its by price extremes or large moves, the curiosity of many stock traders is piqued. But those familiar with stocks may have a hard time finding the right precious metal product to speculate on since the choices vary widely in exposure, size, and look.

Metals or Mining Stocks?

Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that package stocks in the mining business might be the easiest first venture into metals, but ETFs such as XME and GDX can diverge greatly from the commodity itself. Their correlation to the equity market can push them one way as metals pull them the other creating significant long-term deviations.


Some ETFs that track commodities more closely, like GLD and SLV, can be heavy on capital usage. For example, the shares needed to see daily movement in an SLV position greater than $50 would cost between $1,000 and $2,000. These expensive ETFs make large returns on capital difficult to attain.

Capital Efficiency at What Cost?

Futures contracts on gold and silver can offer large fluctuations for smaller capital requirements than stocks and ETFs, but traditional metal futures such as /GC and /SI can be too large for the everyday investor. Both markets have seen daily moves exceeding $2,000 just in the last week, and silver futures have made multi-thousand dollar moves a regular event.

New futures products like Small Precious Metals (/SPRE) present smaller investors the capital efficiency of futures at a more manageable rate than traditional products. The product moves close to $100 on the average day, and its initial margin is usually around a few hundred dollars. Also, it combines gold and silver into the same product, so you dont have to decide on which precious metal to trade.

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loriamen

Moderatore
Membro dello Staff
Off The Wire
Gold edges back from record peak as firm U.S. data dims shine

Aug 4 (Reuters) - Gold was little changed on Tuesday, hovering below the previous session's record peak as fears over the pace of economic recovery amid surging coronavirus cases were offset by upbeat U.S. manufacturing data.

Spot gold was down 0.1% at $1,975.57 per ounce by 0951 GMT, about $9 shy of the all-time high hit in the previous session. U.S. gold futures rose 0.4% to $1,994.20.

Gold is in "wait-and-see mode" for new impulses after the PMI data, which signalled that the economy has found a bottom in the manufacturing sector and an improvement could be seen, said Quantitative Commodity Research analyst Peter Fertig.

World shares hit five-month highs, helped by strong U.S. manufacturing data which showed activity accelerated to its highest level in nearly 1-1/2 years in July.

Manufacturing activity across the euro zone expanded for the first time since early 2019 last month, as demand rebounded after more easing of the coronavirus-induced curbs.

On the technical front, gold prices are facing strong resistance at $2,000 per ounce, but any news regarding new monetary stimulus from the U.S. Federal Reserve could trigger a break, ActivTrades chief analyst Carlo Alberto De Casa said.

U.S. lawmakers said they had made progress in talks on a new coronavirus relief bill.

Coronavirus cases continue to surge in the United States and elsewhere. The World Health Organization warned that the road to normality would be long, with some countries requiring a reset of strategy.

Global central banks have rolled out massive stimulus measures and cut interest rates to mitigate the economic damage caused by the pandemic, helping gold rise more than 30% so far this year.

Silver was up 0.3% to $24.32 per ounce, platinum gained 0.9% to $924.50 and palladium rose 0.8% to$2,101.44.

(Reporting by Eileen Soreng in Bengaluru; Editing by Jan Harvey)
 

loriamen

Moderatore
Membro dello Staff
News Bites
Gold price has another $200 to go after soaring past $2,000 — analysts

Tuesday August 04, 2020 15:18


After the bullish momentum in gold took prices above $2,000 an ounce, the rally could have another $200 to go before seeing a slowdown, according to analysts.

December gold futures jumped to a new all-time high of $2,024.40 an ounce on Tuesday, last trading up nearly 2% on the day. Meanwhile, spot prices climbed above $2,000 for the first time, last trading at $2,004.20 an ounce, up 1.33% on the day.


Eyes are on lower yields, said TD Securities head of global strategy Bart Melek.

“There is a lot of momentum here. Maybe some short covering after we eliminated shorts the other day,” Melek told Kitco News on Tuesday. “The 10-year yields are the lowest ever at 0.5% and we've got 30-year yields at 1.1888. These are pretty significant lows here.”

Gold got a leg up along with silver and crude oil on the news of an explosion in Beirut, which triggered the fear of missing out, said Blue Line Futures chief market strategist Phil Streible.

“We saw silver, gold ,and crude oil take off on news of that explosion in Beirut. And then when they came out, when it came out that it turned out to be like a firework storage place next to like a nitrate factory, we saw silver futures fall 50 cents, gold fell $9. On that pullback, some of the guys that were afraid to miss out on gold’s price action wanted to get in and buy at all costs,” Streible said.

Anytime new highs are probed, the market gets two types of traders — “a guy who gets stopped out, who is short … and a guy who is afraid of missing out,” Streible pointed out.

“That’s what we are seeing now — fear of missing out and new stops being hit,” he said.

There is also a growing view out there that the Federal Reserve may move away from preemptive inflation targeting, stated Melek. “Typically they would guide. Sounds like they possibly could be moving away from that.”


Tuesday’s move up also comes after a slight correction on Monday, added Melek, noting that gold could be looking at $2,100 next.

“We are at a record level. The next big Fibonacci would be $2,110 — this is where the 2011 gold high really is if you were to adjust for inflation,” he said. “Out target average for end of next year is at $2,100.”

The bull market looks healthy even above $2,000 an ounce, said Streible.

“All the technicals line up really good. As long as the lower real yields occur and the dollar continues to weaken, you’re going to continue to see gold bank all the time highs,” Streible told Kitco News. “It’s a pretty healthy bull market right now. The ADX, which measures the strength of the trend, is at 44, which says that it's a healthy, upward trending market.”

Gold tends to shoot for round numbers and $2,200 could be next for gold, added Streible.

“It seems like the more people talk about round numbers, the more they become like a self-fulfilling prophecy. Once it got to $1,921, we had to go to $2,000,” he said. “The $2,200 is the next resistance level based on the breakout at $1,857 to our most recent consolidation. That would be the Fibonacci extension.”

Streible also warned that, at the same time, this could be the high in gold if news of a successful vaccine rollout hit the market.

By Anna Golubova
For Kitco News
 

loriamen

Moderatore
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E.B. Tucker correctly predicted $2,000 gold price; he now sees this year-end target
Thursday August 06, 2020 19:19


As gold prices breached $2,000 an ounce and continue to march higher, one analyst sees momentum continuing all the way to $2,500 by year end.

E.B. Tucker, director of Metalla Royalty and Streaming and author of “Why Gold, Why Now? The War Against Your Wealth and How to Win It” said that this current bull rally has not run out of control, and is in fact, still going to going to continue at a measured pace.


“Normally I would say [the bull run is overheated] but what I’m seeing in the daily action is that gold is rising in a very measured way and is not meeting much resistance, so when that’s happening you just step out of the way and let it go, that’s what you do,” Tucker said.

The U.S. dollar has been weakening, and this trend of devaluation is not new, he said.

“This is not new. Back to Nixon in 1971, there was a period when they tried to hide the devaluation of the dollar. It’s a measured devaluation, they don’t want this to be reckless, we have an adjustment periods. We’re in that right now. So right now, the dollar value is the big deal,” he said.

Tucker noted that deflation is a bigger risk right now than inflation.

“What’s really hard for people is…deflation is the real problem because what happens is we’re swimming in too much money, so you have so much money that’s been created, and all that money that’s created over the last 10 years goes looking for investments. When all that money goes chasing for investments, the return on investments goes down, down down,” he said.

The stock market, although appreciating in nominal terms, is not really appreciating in real terms, adjusted for inflation, he added.

Investors should not be trading gold in the short term on leverage, because a short-term correction may occur at some point before prices hit $2,500 an ounce, Tucker said.

“This is a secular bull market. This is a bull market in gold that you’re probably never going to see in the course of your life again,” he said.

By David Lin
For Kitco News
 

ginestra

Well-known member
E.B. Tucker correctly predicted $2,000 gold price; he now sees this year-end target




copia incolla l intervista dell amministatore di COINVEST ieri . tp lievemente piu alto ( 3000 dollari ) :geek:
 
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loriamen

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Gold Price Prediction – Prices Slide Following Strong Jobs Data
The unemployment rate dropped to 10.2%

David Becker
4 hours ago (Aug 07, 2020 06:24 PM GMT)

Technical analysis
Gold prices moved lower after hitting an all-time intra-day high forming an outside day which is considered a reversal pattern. An outside day is a higher high a lower low and a lower close. Support is seen near the 10-day moving average at 1,992. Short-term momentum has turned negative as the fast stochastic generated a crossover sell signal. Medium-term momentum is negative to neutral as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) histogram prints in the red with a flattening trajectory which points to consolidation.

1596839911227.png
US Jobs Rise More than Expected
US non-farm payrolls rose 1.8 million jobs last month, better than the 1.48 million expected, and the unemployment rate fell more than expected to 10.2% from 11.1%. The pace of gains decelerated from the 4.8 million jobs added in June, and the 2.7 million in May. Average hourly earnings increased +0.2% versus expectations were 0.5% and -1.3% in June. Average hourly earnings, year over year rose +4.8% versus expectations that they would rise +4.2%.
 
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