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Operare sull'oro: GLD, GDX e gli ETF sul gold e sui gold miners

loriamen

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Membro dello Staff
Da:https://www.commoditiestrading.it/default.aspx
Oro: il rally è finito? Guardate i grafici!
Articolo pubblicato il 25/09/2020 09:00


La recente debolezza dell’oro getta nel panico gli investitori, che iniziano a chiedersi se il lingotto abbia o meno esaurito al sua forza: il precedente contesto di mercato ha spinto il metallo giallo a registrare un nuovo massimo storico al di sopra dei 2075 dollari per oncia nei primi giorni di agosto e, mentre alcuni istituti di credito prevedono ulteriori rialzi, la forza del dollaro tiene il prezzo dell’oro sotto pressione.

A seguire cinque grafici che ci aiuteranno a comprendere cosa sta realmente accadendo

Dollaro USA
L’elemento che maggiormente influenza, in questo momento, le quotazioni del lingotto è il dollaro: questa settimana la valuta statunitense si è rafforzata, anche se la Federal Reserve è rimasta estremamente accomodante sui tassi di interesse. Il ritrovato vigore del dollaro è imputabile al fatto che gli investitori temono che non saranno varati ulteriori stimoli, e questo limita gli exploit rialzisti del metallo giallo, anche in un contesto che vede le infezioni da COVID 19 espandersi sempre più.

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“Il dollaro forte pesa come una macina sui prezzi dei metalli preziosi, e questo esercita una forte pressione sull’oro anche a fronte dell’attuale avversione al rischio. La politica Fed, tuttavia, rimarrà espansiva per anni, ragion per cui difficilmente la forza del dollaro si protrarrà nel tempo” (Carsten Fritsch, analista presso Commerzbank).

Tassi reali
Il crollo in territorio negativo dei tassi reali del tesoro è stato un elemento che ha sostenuto il lingotto, ma ora tali tassi sembrano aver realizzato un floor e sarà necessario un forte impulso alle attese di inflazione per spingerli ancora più in basso.

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Elementi tecnici
Il declino dell’oro, nell’ottava che sta per terminare, ha acquisito slancio dopo la violazione della media a 50 giorni, da molti traders ritenuto un segnale di debolezza. La prossima soglia da monitorare è rappresentata dalla media a 100 giorni che, potenzialmente, offrirà una certa resistenza alla pressione dei venditori, anche se sarà necessario prestare la massima attenzione, in quanto una violazione della media in oggetto potrebbe innescare ulteriori vendite.

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ETF
Nel 2020 gli investitori hanno mostrato un notevole interesse per gli ETF aventi l’oro come sottostante, più precisamente hanno mostrato questo loro interesse con l’aggiunta di 862 tonnellate di lingotti.

Dopo il calo avvenuto all’inizio della settimana gli ETF hanno visto i loro maggiori afflussi in almeno un anno quando gli investitori hanno acquistato il calo, tuttavia, il calo dei prezzi dei giorni successivi non ha restituito lo stesso risultato.

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Elezioni
Negli ultimi 20 anni l’oro si è molto mosso prima e dopo le elezioni USA in quanto gli investitori valutano l’impatto dell’evento sul dollaro, sui rendimenti del tesoro e sul rischio politico globale. Le elezioni di novembre saranno potenzialmente le più difficili degli ultimi decenni, e questo genererà un’incertezza in grado di sostenere il metallo giallo.

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Ultima modifica:

loriamen

Moderatore
Membro dello Staff
Il rally dell'oro NON è finito!...............c'è sotto la MANINA di qualcuno!!!


Gold price manipulation is real; JPMorgan’s spoofing case explained

David Lin Friday October 02, 2020 09:05


JPMorgan settled a $920 million fine with U.S. authorities on charges of precious metals price manipulation last week. This is significant because rumors and speculation about metals manipulation is confirmed in such a large profile case for the first time, said Will Rhind, CEO of GraniteShares.

“Throughout my career, there have always been these kind of mutterings of manipulation of the gold market. A lot of people that were talking about that were really written off as fringe or conspiracy theorists [with an] extreme view, and those people have been right,” Rhind told Kitco News.


Spoofing entails putting in fake orders in the markets to buy or sell and then withdrawing those orders before they are executed with the intention of moving the price.

“I think it’s the largest fine that’s ever been paid for spoofing and market manipulation in this particular order and really sets a massive precedent,” Rhind said.

Regulatory changes are likely to follow after this case, Rhind added.

“Hopefully it doesn’t happen again. $920 million is not a small amount, even for a bank of the size of JPMorgan. I’m sure you will see wholesale changes made on the compliance side and all sorts of other controls put in place to make sure that this doesn’t happen again,” he said.

Rhind noted that the extent to which spoofing has significantly suppressed the free market movement of precious metals prices is “almost impossible to determine.”
 

loriamen

Moderatore
Membro dello Staff


Equities markets have moved lower on Friday following news that President Donald Trump contracted COVID-19. The gold price spiked overnight following Trump’s tweet at at 12:54 am EST but stabilized during the trading day.

Peter Reznicek of ShadowTrader.net said equities should have fallen even more, but he remains bullish on the technical signals.

“What I’m seeing in the equities markets right now is kind of reminiscent of a concept I call ‘when what should happen doesn’t’,” Reznicek said. “When you think about it, ‘when what should happen doesn’t’ is really what we’re seeing now. Do you see how much equities markets are up off of the lows?”

Reznicek said that traders should really be focused on how prices are currently moving, as opposed to how they should have been moving.

“I think [equities] should be weaker but they’re not, and you have to just really deal with what is. You cannot get sucked into what I call scenario trading, which is that sort of thinking that if this then that, and you just have knee-jerk reactions to whatever the news cycle is,” he said.

As of 2:00 pm EST, the S&P 500 is down 0.6%, the NASDAQ is down 1.7%, and spot gold is down 0.26%.

“They needed to come in a little bit more and have some sort of rotation out of tech only because tech was so red hot for so long, so I think it was just unsustainable into the beginning of September,” he said.

Gold saw a strong move initially following the news of Trump’s infection. Reznicek remains bullish long-term.

“If you look at an overnight GLD (SPDR Gold Shares) chart which tracks [gold] futures that are 24 hours, there was a big spike,” he said. “In the bigger picture, I’m definitely bullish.”

$1,935 an ounce is the next level that would break the downtrend that gold has been seeing and bring the metal back into an uptrend, Reznicek said.


“In the dollar index, there’s a key level that everybody should watch. When the dollar rallied recently and threatened to break its downtrend, it rallied up to 94.74, and that is a very important line in the sand for the DXY (dollar index). As long as it remains below that swing high of 94.74, I would say that the outlook for the dollar is weak, which obviously makes the outlook for gold bullish,” he said.

Reznicek noted that the dollar and gold are highly inversely correlated at the moment, moving together in “lockstep.”
 

Tony

Well-known member
Il rally dell'oro NON è finito!...............c'è sotto la MANINA di qualcuno!!!


Gold price manipulation is real; JPMorgan’s spoofing case explained

David Lin Friday October 02, 2020 09:05


JPMorgan settled a $920 million fine with U.S. authorities on charges of precious metals price manipulation last week. This is significant because rumors and speculation about metals manipulation is confirmed in such a large profile case for the first time, said Will Rhind, CEO of GraniteShares.

“Throughout my career, there have always been these kind of mutterings of manipulation of the gold market. A lot of people that were talking about that were really written off as fringe or conspiracy theorists [with an] extreme view, and those people have been right,” Rhind told Kitco News.


Spoofing entails putting in fake orders in the markets to buy or sell and then withdrawing those orders before they are executed with the intention of moving the price.

“I think it’s the largest fine that’s ever been paid for spoofing and market manipulation in this particular order and really sets a massive precedent,” Rhind said.

Regulatory changes are likely to follow after this case, Rhind added.

“Hopefully it doesn’t happen again. $920 million is not a small amount, even for a bank of the size of JPMorgan. I’m sure you will see wholesale changes made on the compliance side and all sorts of other controls put in place to make sure that this doesn’t happen again,” he said.

Rhind noted that the extent to which spoofing has significantly suppressed the free market movement of precious metals prices is “almost impossible to determine.”
Quella manina è una manona presente qui come su tutto il resto, temo ;)
 

loriamen

Moderatore
Membro dello Staff

Focus​

Important longer-term chart perspectives on gold, silver price action in recent weeks​


Jim Wyckoff Monday October 05, 2020 09:47

While the daily bar charts for nearby Comex gold and silver futures prices have seen some technical damage inflicted the past few weeks, as price uptrends were negated and prices are now in near-term downtrends, the weekly charts still show price uptrends in place for both.

For the longer-term traders and investors in the gold and silver markets (as opposed to the shorter-term futures traders, or day traders), the weekly charts supersede the daily charts in importance.

Gold and silver bulls still have the firm longer-term technical advantage. Gold bulls do need to defend the last “reaction low” in the present uptrend on the weekly chart, which is located at $1,843.00, basis nearby futures. The last reaction low in nearby silver futures needs to hold to keep the uptrend in place on the weekly chart. That reaction low is located at the recent low of $21.96.

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loriamen

Moderatore
Membro dello Staff
Ecco perché sono caduti WS ed i metalli preziosi mentre il dollaro siè apprezzato:


Gold plunged along with stocks after U.S. President Donald Trump called off stimulus negotiations with the Democrats “until after the election.”

The yellow metal once again fell below the key $1,900 an ounce level it was trying to breach on a sustainable basis this week. At the time of writing, December Comex gold futures were trading at $1,891.70, down 1.49% on the day.

“I have instructed my representatives to stop negotiating until after the election when, immediately after I win, we will pass a major Stimulus Bill that focuses on hardworking Americans and Small Business,” Trump said on Twitter.

After the announcement, stocks took a big hit while the U.S. dollar climbed. The Dow was down more than 220 points, and S&P 500 was down more than 28 points at the time of writing. The U.S. dollar index, on the other hand, climbed from daily lows of around 93.35 to 93.67.

Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump Oct 6, 2020

Nancy Pelosi is asking for $2.4 Trillion Dollars to bailout poorly run, high crime, Democrat States, money that is in no way related to COVID-19. We made a very generous offer of $1.6 Trillion Dollars and, as usual, she is not negotiating in good faith. I am rejecting their
request, and looking to the future of our Country. I have instructed my representatives to stop negotiating until after the election when, immediately after I win, we will pass a major Stimulus Bill that focuses on hardworking Americans and Small Business. I have asked...
8:48 PM · Oct 6, 2020


In this scenario, it is not a surprise the gold fell as the precious metal has been trading in tandem with stocks lately, TD Securities head of global strategy Bart Melek told Kitco News on Tuesday.

“Gold for the last little while has been trading like a risk asset, and that has been true today,” Melek said. “The dollar also heard what Trump said, and we saw a large jump in the U.S. dollar, which is a big offset for gold.”

What this market reaction tells investors is that there is an expectation of disinflationary pressures down the road, Melek pointed out.

“If we don’t see the government add to fiscal expenditures, that means you will have folks who will start running out of money. This might get chronic — they will spend less, and Q4 GDP will be nasty,” noted Melek. “That is the opposite of what Powell suggested. We need more, and we are getting less.”

Trump’s announcement comes after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell warned that the economic recovery remains incomplete and could trigger “recessionary dynamics” if the spread of the coronavirus is not controlled and economic growth is not sustained.

Powell made his remarks during a speech to the National Association for Business Economics on Tuesday morning.

Powell also highlighted that there is more risk in “doing too little” than “overdoing” it.

“Too little support would lead to a weak recovery, creating unnecessary hardship for households and businesses,” Powell said. “The risks of overdoing it seems, for now, to be smaller. Even if policy actions ultimately prove to be greater than needed, they will not go to waste. The recovery will be stronger and move faster.”

In the short-term, no additional stimulus until after the election is not a great story for gold, added Melek. “Real rates going higher here and the dollar strengthening and volatility moving higher as well,” he said.

However, after the election, the environment once again becomes favorable to gold no matter who wins, Melek explained.

“After the election, we will get massive amounts of fiscal stimulus no matter who wins. We will not get much tax increases from the Democrats. And the Republicans are on record that they want to cut taxes. From both sides, we will get massive deficits, central bank accommodation and gold will ultimately do well as we try to get into positive inflation territory,” he said.

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loriamen

Moderatore
Membro dello Staff

There is one driver that could really re-ignite the gold price rally during this turbulent fourth quarter, according to Bloomberg Intelligence (BI).
All macro and political risks aside, a peak in the dollar is the one factor that can push gold significantly higher, BI senior commodity strategist Mike McGlone said in his Q4 update.
"Gold is likely to remain atop our macro-performance scoreboard in 4Q," McGlone said. "The greenback entering a bear market would propel gold, if history is a guide."
The yellow metal is currently in a bull market with strong established above $1,800 an ounce after a sharp rise to a new record high of $2,075 an ounce this summer.

"As a bull market resumes, the metal has pulled back from getting overextended above $2,000 an ounce and should build a base around $1,800, with increasing debt-to-GDP and quantitative easing the catalysts," McGlone wrote.

Another sign of the current bull market is that gold hasn't wrapped up a quarter since Q1 2019, less than 8% above its 50-week moving average, McGlone pointed out.
Bloomberg Intelligence sees gold eventually climbing back up to its new record highs, especially in light of the increasing debt-to-GDP ratio and massive global quantitative easing.

"History dictates that the gold-price rally should accelerate toward $2,000 if the dollar is peaking," McGlone said.

The debt-to-GDP ratio is an important one to pay attention to when it comes to projecting gold price rallies, according to the Q4 update.
"A prime reason the store-of-value metal should continue rising -- U.S. relative indebtedness has leaped to about 140% vs. an average just above 100% since 2012. The fact that debt-to-GDP rose despite one of the longest economic expansions in history to 2020 suggests there's little to reverse the trend. We see gold staying the upward trajectory and potentially getting overextended like it did to the 2011 peak. An underperforming stock market would be a top support for the metal," McGlone explained.

Plus, once the U.S. dollar enters its bear market, gold could really take off. "The U.S. stock market reaching its record ratio vs. GDP in 3Q signals stiffer equity and dollar headwinds, meaning the performance baton may pass to the metals and agriculture," McGlone noted.
On top of that, gold has developed divergent strength in the face of a rising U.S. dollar this year, which points to a solid price footing and even a more significant price acceleration once the dollar drops.

"Our graphic depicts the divergent strength in gold despite a rising dollar. Since the Federal Reserve rate hike in December 2015, gold has gained about 80% vs. 5% in the dollar," McGlone stated. "In more of a nascent resumption-rally mode at the onset of 2020, the benchmark store-of-value metal appears poised to accelerate its edge vs. most assets if the dollar peaks. In 2008, when gold reached the $1,000 handle the first time, the trade-weighted broad dollar had dropped to a 13-year low. Record highs in March elevate greenback mean-reversion risks, favoring dollar-denominated gold."
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When it comes to silver, McGlone projects a re-take of $30 an ounce and rules out a return to this year's lows of $12 an ounce.

"Silver's 2020 trading range of about $12-$30 an ounce could mark the low forever, while the high should eventually be breached," he wrote. "It's a matter of time, if history is a guide, before silver revisits $30 resistance, as we see the metal in a similar breakout pattern as 2003-04."
 

loriamen

Moderatore
Membro dello Staff

Oro: le banche centrali gettano la spugna?​


La Redazione Articolo pubblicato il 09/10/2020 10:00

Il prezzo dell’oro ha registrato un nuovo massimo storico, nel 2020, ma ora sembra che il sostegno della banche centrali stia venendo meno, con le realtà in oggetto che liquidano i lingotti approfittando delle quotazioni elevate.

Stando a quanto dichiarato dal World Gold Council (WGC) gli acquisti sono scesi del 39%, nel mese di ottobre, ad un totale di 233 tonnellate (variazione rispetto allo stesso periodo nel 2019).

Le banche centrali di tutto il mondo stanno lottando per reperire liquidità, con gli istituti di dimensioni maggiori che continuano a stampare denaro sotto forma di QE.

Secondo il Financial Times, le banche centrali sono diventate venditori netti di oro, ad agosto, per la prima volta in circa 18 mesi.

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Il World Gold Council (WGC) ha confermato che nel corso del mese sono state vendute 12,3 tonnellate nette di oro, secondo le stime, e sempre il WGC ha affermato che le banche centrali, che detengono complessivamente 35.000 tonnellate di oro per un valore di circa 2 trilioni di dollari, hanno venduto 12,3 tonnellate in più di quelle acquistate ad agosto.

Non è tutto negativo in quanto il rally è stato ancora sostenuto dagli investitori al dettaglio con acquisti di fondi negoziati in borsa (ETF). Gli investitori hanno investito circa 60 miliardi di dollari in tali ETF nel 2020, e l'anno non è ancora finito.

Fonte KitcoNews
 

loriamen

Moderatore
Membro dello Staff
GOLD Weekly Forecast
Sunday, October 11, 2020

by Anton Kolhanov of Kolhanov.com

This/Next Week Forecast (October 12 - 16, 2020)​

Uptrend scenario
The uptrend may be expected to continue, while market is trading above support level 1920, which will be followed by reaching resistance level 1966 and if it keeps on moving up above that level, we may expect the market to reach resistance level 2033.
Downtrend scenario
An downtrend will start as soon, as the market drops below support level 1920, which will be followed by moving down to support level 1848

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Fundamental Analysis​

Conditions in currency and interest rates sectors showing fair price on the level 1800 - 1750.

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loriamen

Moderatore
Membro dello Staff
Da Commodities Trading:

Oro, WGC: la domanda aumenta a ritmo vertiginoso!​

15/10/2020 18:00

Di sicuro il mese di settembre non è stato un mese esaltante per i prezzi dell’oro, con il mercato che è stato contraddistinto dal calo più marcato in quattro anni, ma i tecnici del World Gold Council (WGC) ci aiutano a vedere la situazione da un altro punto di vista: quello della domanda. E quello che si vede è una crescita della richiesta semplicemente vertiginosa…

Nel suo ultimo report diffuso al pubblico il WGC afferma un aumento delle partecipazioni in ETF aventi l’oro come sottostante pari a 68,1 tonnellate, nel mese passato, con una crescita complessiva del terzo trimestre 2020 pari al 7%.
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“Il calo del 3,6% registrato dall’oro nel mese di settembre è stato, probabilmente, di natura tattica - spiegano gli analisti del WGC - tra aprile e luglio le quotazioni del metallo giallo sono state contraddistinte da un recupero pari al 22% e, nei primi giorni di agosto, hanno registrato un nuovo massimo storico: quando i prezzi si muovono così rapidamente, spesso si verifica una successiva pausa o storno legati a prese di profitto o posizionamento. L’oro, insieme ad altri asset, ha iniziato il trimestre con forza, ed anche a fronte dell’inversione di tendenza il trimestre in oggetto è stato chiuso in rialzo rispecchiando un calo del dollaro USA pari al 4%”.

Il recente incremento ha spinto le partecipazioni annue in ETF ad oltre 1000 tonnellate, un nuovo record storico, con il valore delle risorse gestite anch’esso ai massimi storici con 235 miliardi di dollari nell’anno.
Gli analisti del WGC spiegano che il fatto che gli investitori continuano ad aumentare le partecipazioni anche in un contesto di debolezza dei prezzi indica la presenza di un interesse strategico in termini di posizionamento a lungo termine: “Nel mese passato abbiamo compreso che la Federal Reserve statunitense non avrebbe più aumentato preventivamente i tassi per raffreddare l'inflazione in aumento, e questo implica che i tassi potrebbero rimanere vicini allo zero per molti anni e che questa filosofia di politica monetaria potrebbe diffondersi in altre regioni, assicurando tassi reali negativi nel prossimo futuro. Gli analisti di mercato prevedono problemi con le elezioni USA e questo potrebbe sostenere la richiesta di oro…”.

A livello geografico gli ETF nordamericani sono quelli che hanno registrato il maggior incremento (+34,6 tonnellate) seguiti a ruota da quelli europei (+26 tonnellate).

A distinguersi, seppur con volumi minori, è stata l’Asia: qui l’aumento è stato di sole 7 tonnellate, ma dobbiamo tener presente che la Cina non ha mai brillato in termini di acquisto di ETF, ragion per cui il balzo in oggetto risulta degno di nota.

Fonte KitcoNews
 

Cimabue

Active member
Azzardo due ipotesi basate su "sensazioni personali" che, come tali, lasciano il tempo che trovano e nulla hanno a che fare con l'AT:
1) in caso di sostanziosa correzione l'oro non seguirà la falsa riga di marzo scorso (giù nel dirupo a braccetto con l'azionario, nella prima fase)
2) il gold si sta caricando come una molla in attesa di un trigger

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Tony

Well-known member
Azzardo due ipotesi basate su "sensazioni personali" che, come tali, lasciano il tempo che trovano e nulla hanno a che fare con l'AT:
1) in caso di sostanziosa correzione l'oro non seguirà la falsa riga di marzo scorso (giù nel dirupo a braccetto con l'azionario, nella prima fase)
2) il gold si sta caricando come una molla in attesa di un trigger

Vedi l'allegato 6697
Da dove origina la trendline rialzista ? Scusa la curiosità
 

loriamen

Moderatore
Membro dello Staff
Lo metto qui perché penso che la STAGFLAZIONE è un grosso vantaggio per l'oro!

Are We Entering Stagflation That Will Boost Gold?
Friday, October 16, 2020

by Arkadiusz Sieron of Sunshine Profits

Inflation is back. OK, not inflation, but inflation expectations. As the chart below shows, they plunged during the coronavirus crisis, but they have already recovered. Currently, and based on the inflation-protected Treasury yields, Mr. Market expects that inflation will be, on average, 1.5 percent in the next five years and 1.7 percent in the next ten years.
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Meanwhile, the realbond yieldshave continued their downward trend. As the chart below shows, the yields of 5 and 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities plunged from around zero in January to around -1.15 in mid-September.

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Do you already see the implications? Yes, you are right. The charts above show the rebound in inflation expectations and the sharp decline inreal interest rates. Such a combination indicates thatstagflationis coming. Or, at least, that investors worry about the simultaneous occurrence of stagnation andinflation.

To understand this better, lets take a look at the chart below. It presents nominal Treasury bond yields. As you can see, they have remained in a sideways trend since April, even though inflation expectations have rebounded. So, the only reason why nominal interest rates did not increase in tandem with inflation expectations is that the growth expectations have declined. In other words, investors expect both economic slowdown and a rebound in inflation to occur simultaneously, i.e., stagflation.

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These expectations are fueled by the coronavirus crisis and following supply-chain disruptions and shortages, the Feds new monetary regime that allows for overshooting the inflation target, and the significant expansion in thepublic debtand the broadmoney supply. Driven by thequantitative easingand the increase in bank deposits, the M2 money supply growth pace has increased from about 7 percent before thepandemicto about 24 percent in July, as the chart below shows.
1602960434104.png
The unprecedented spike in the broad money supply and not only in themonetary basecontrolled by the central bank is the reason why the coronavirus crisis was more inflationary than theGreat Recession, and it can translate into higher price inflation in the future.

However, the money supply acceleration has been matched by a plunge in the velocity of money or the number of times a dollar is spent in the economy (see the chart below). So maybe there is nothing to worry about?
1602960522392.png
Actually, there is! You see, the velocity of money is a vague concept. It is defined as a nominalGDPdivided by the money supply. So, it does not have a life of its own, and it is not defined independently of the other terms in the famous equation of exchange: M*V = GDP = P*(real GDP).

Hence, the velocity of money had to decline simply because the economy shrank, while the money supply expanded during theGreat Lockdown(see the chart below). But it means that the money supply has been growing faster than the economy, which is a recipe for inflation, which is described precisely as too much money chasing too few goods.

1602960587226.png
And please note that in the aftermath of theGreat Recession, the ballooningFeds balance sheetand monetary base were accompanied by slowing M2 money supply growth. Because of thefinancial crisis, loan growth declined sharply. In contrast, today, the banking system is in a healthier position, and commercial banks substantially expanded the credit creation.

Of course, the rise in the broad money supply was partially a result of companies drawing down on pre-arranged credit lines, not the irrational exuberance of the commercial banks (although government guarantees make banks to provide loans to many sub-marginal companies), but the end result is the same: the rapid expansion in the bank credit and the broad money supply. As the chart below shows, the total bank credit growth accelerated from about 5.3 at the beginning of the year to 11.3 percent in May. Hence, the risk of inflation is higher than in the aftermath of theeconomic crisisof 2008.It makes the current macroeconomic environment even better for gold.
..........continua sotto...
 

loriamen

Moderatore
Membro dello Staff
Continuazione:

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To sum up, although the increase in the mere monetary base does not have to translate into higher inflation, the record fast expansion in the broad money supply is disturbing, and it increases the risk of inflation or stagflation sometime in the future. The supply chain distortions, ballooningfederal debt, and moredovish Fed, which is eager to accept inflation above its 2-percent target for some time, also add to this risk. As higher inflation increases the appeal ofgold as an inflation hedge, and decreases thereal interest rates,the heightened stagflationary risk should support the gold prices.

Of course, the coronavirus crisis has also resulted in a massive drop in GDP growth and an increase in spare capacity that can keep consumer price inflation low for some time. However, when the economy recovers somewhat, while the large monetary and fiscal stimulus program continues, the broad money supply's unprecedented fast growth could end up being inflationary after a certain lag.When gold sniffs out the smell of inflation, it should shine.
 

condor74

Moderatore
Membro dello Staff
Dopo che nelle due settimane precedenti l'oro era rimbalzato sulla mediana weekly e era andato a testare sma13, la settimana appena conclusa ha visto il respingimento proprio su sma13 (a 1936) e il ritorno delle quotazioni sotto sma5 (a 1907), chiudendo marginalmente (e simbolicamente?) sotto quota 1900.
Incrocio ribassista di sma5 su sma13 e Rsi 5 e 13 ribassisti. Vedremo se la mediana farà nuovamente da supporto.

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Dato COT. Commercials sempre nettamente short (267k vs 74k dei long) e managed money long. Tuttavia al 13 ottobre i commercials avevano tagliato le posizioni corte di circa 10000 contratti mentre gli specs avevano incrementato lo short di circa 11k. Questi cambi hanno probabilmente prodotto il rimbalzo dalla mediana a sma13 a cui si accennava sopra.

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L'analisi di Hedgopia con l'ultima frase che ho evidenziato in giallo particolarmente importante anche da punto di vista tecnico: a 1927 passa sma50 daily, la cui rottura al rialzo sarebbe imho un match point a favore dei bulls per le settimane a venire

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Alto