Operare sull'oro: GLD, GDX e gli ETF sul gold e sui gold miners

[Buyorsell]

Gold Prices at 19-Month Highs Amid Inflation Fear, ETF Inflows

Gold prices extended higher during Wednesday’s mid-day trading. Heightened geopolitical tensions may keep the precious metal afloat alongside rising inflation expectations. Gold ETFs saw large net inflows.

www.dailyfx.com

 

[loriamen]

L'opinione di "BUBBA":

Gold reverses while silver stays long

Kitco News' contributed commentary features articles and opinions from some of the top experts in the gold industry.

www.kitco.com

You can’t always get what you want -- the classic by the Rolling Stones is playing out right in front of us. We were long gold, silver and platinum and today. We will short gold and platinum while staying long silver. However, we are only shorting paper while holding physical.

Gold was almost perfect until it went down too far, triggering a reversal. Although I like gold, the price action and the pattern suggest that there is more room to the downside. This morning gold is below the major support of $1,940 and now looks headed to $1,900.

Silver remains long, but another down day will trigger a reversal. With the FED reporting on Wednesday, it is anyone’s guess on how the metals will react to a .25 rate hike. Remember, most news is already price in. Based on our algorithms, we will be looking for lower prices.

 

[Gianpaolo]

L'opinione di "BUBBA":

Gold reverses while silver stays long

Kitco News' contributed commentary features articles and opinions from some of the top experts in the gold industry.

www.kitco.com

You can’t always get what you want -- the classic by the Rolling Stones is playing out right in front of us. We were long gold, silver and platinum and today. We will short gold and platinum while staying long silver. However, we are only shorting paper while holding physical.

Gold was almost perfect until it went down too far, triggering a reversal. Although I like gold, the price action and the pattern suggest that there is more room to the downside. This morning gold is below the major support of $1,940 and now looks headed to $1,900.

Silver remains long, but another down day will trigger a reversal. With the FED reporting on Wednesday, it is anyone’s guess on how the metals will react to a .25 rate hike. Remember, most news is already price in. Based on our algorithms, we will be looking for lower prices.

Non puoi sempre ottenere quello che vuoi - il classico dei Rolling Stones si sta svolgendo proprio di fronte a noi. Eravamo lunghi oro, argento e platino e oggi. Andremo short su oro e platino rimanendo long silver. Tuttavia, stiamo solo cortocircuitando la carta mentre teniamo fisicamente.

L'oro era quasi perfetto fino a quando non è andato troppo giù, innescando un'inversione. Anche se mi piace l'oro, l'azione dei prezzi e il modello suggeriscono che c'è più spazio al ribasso. Questa mattina l'oro è al di sotto del supporto principale di $ 1.940 e ora sembra diretto a $ 1.900.

L'argento rimane lungo, ma un altro giorno di ribasso innescherà un'inversione. Con la fed che riporta mercoledì, nessuno può immaginare come i metalli reagiranno a un rialzo dei tassi di .25. Ricorda, la maggior parte delle notizie è già scontata. Sulla base dei nostri algoritmi, cercheremo prezzi più bassi.

 

[loriamen]

L'opinione di "BUBBA": Tuesday March 22, 2022 09:52

Gold and silver continue to churn around the mean. The pattern is compressing, indicating a much bigger move is coming. As we look at the charts, gold’s support is at $1,900 and resistance is at $1,950. Silver is finding support at $24.5 and resistance at $26.00. We are short and expect them to hit support; however, at this point, we would not be surprised at any move.


Platinum has once again become the weak link in the precious metals chain; $ 1,000 appears to be the major support level. Although we no longer actively trade Platinum, we are physical buyers even in the current downtrend. When buying, physical levels are much less important because of the holding period.


Almost all markets are miserably slow and lack volume. This type of action always makes trading more challenging and skews the risk/reward model. When markets are dull, you are better off sitting on the sidelines waiting for trades instead of forcing them. Although I carry positions in 29 markets daily, my active trading has come to a halt. There are times it pays to be patient; this is one of them.

Precious metals should be owned on a physical basis with capital that is not needed tomorrow or anytime soon. Trading should be done with paper, knowing that we can trade either side without emotions.


In all markets, price action determines what will happen in the next day, week, or month. Keep the two strategies separate. The worst trade anyone can make is turning a trade into an investment hoping for a way out. Traders must learn to take their losses and move on to the next trade.

Patience, discipline, and money management always win the day. Let the map of the markets show you the way.

 

[loriamen]

Ed ecco l'opinione di "BUBBA" sui metalli preziosi:

Contributed Commentaries​

Gold and silver, the yo-yo market​

Todd 'Bubba' Horwitz Thursday April 07, 2022 09:51

Gold and Silver continue to pretend they are yo-yos as they go up and down, but never leave the range they are in. Eventually, the string will break; the metals will break out with a much bigger move. Does the string break when we are walking the dog or around the world?

Nobody knows the next move in gold and silver; it could be up or down. A trade now can go either way; we are short and will assume lower. We would not be surprised if the breakout was higher. If so, we would take our losses, reverse them, and look for a rally.

Conditions are as tough as they get, which is consistent with consolidation. In the next couple of weeks, no one can guarantee anything. We can only play the trend, which is lower until it's not. If we look years out, we expect prices to be higher. Everything comes down to your time horizon.

Precious metals should be owned on a physical basis with capital that is not needed tomorrow or anytime soon. Trading should be done with paper, knowing that we can trade either side without emotions.

In all markets, price action determines what will happen in the next day, week, or month. Keep the two strategies separate. The worst trade anyone can make is turning a trade into an investment hoping for a way out. Traders must learn to take their losses and move on to the next trade.

Patience, discipline, and money management always win the day. Let the map of the markets show you the way.

 

[Buyorsell]

Future gold proiettato ad avvicinare quota 2000 in settimana, imho.

 

[loriamen]

E.....da Todd "BUBBA" Horwitz: Monday April 11, 2022 08:52

Gold and Silver
are running higher this morning and appear headed to test the top end of the range. For weeks gold has traded between $1,900-$1,960 and silver $24-$26. Today gold is at the top and silver is getting close. The yo-yo market continues.

We remain short gold and silver, knowing that this market could breakout to the upside or resistance will fail once again. Based on volume and volatility, our expectations are for these rallies to fail. However, this is what makes the consolidation pattern the hardest to trade.


There are cases to be made whether you are bullish or bearish. Miners have been strong, but the physical metal has been weak. Most of the news would favor higher prices for metals, but they have not broken out to the upside. The vital trade here is to watch the price action; failure would take the metals back to the bottom end of the range.

At this point, the metals can go either way. Until they break above resistance, sellers should maintain control. Volume remains weak, indicating there is no power to push through, but we are watching.

Precious metals should be owned on a physical basis with capital that is not needed tomorrow or anytime soon. Trading should be done with paper, knowing that we can trade either side without emotions.

In all markets, price action determines what will happen in the next day, week, or month. Keep the two strategies separate. The worst trade anyone can make is turning a trade into an investment hoping for a way out. Traders must learn to take their losses and move on to the next trade.

Patience, discipline, and money management always win the day. Let the map of the markets show you the way.

 

[Buyorsell]

Future gold proiettato ad avvicinare quota 2000 in settimana, imho.
Vedi l'allegato 13874

Prima "toccata" settimanale di quota 2000 , vedremo se con gli sviluppi della guerra questo livello anche psicologico di prezzo sarà rotto con conferma al rialzo o ci sarà un nuovo respingimento.

 

[condor74]

Goldman Sach è bullish sull'oro e lo vede a 2500.

Graficamente ha fatto un doppio massimo weekly




Questo il tf mensile, con una shooting star o comunque un inverted hammer ribassista a marzo, imho.




Sul daily è al test del supporto di sma50

 

[loriamen]

Apparentemente l'oro sembra un buon posto dove parcheggiare i soldi in questo momento.....ma, come ha sottolineato il Wall Street Journal , la Russia sta esaurendo i mezzi per finanziare la sua macchina da guerra . Pertanto, le riserve auree del paese possono essere un mezzo praticabile per eludere le sanzioni internazionali, soprattutto perché la provenienza dell'oro è difficile da rintracciare . Se la Russia scarica i suoi metalli preziosi, fate attenzione alla volatilità con il metallo giallo.

 

[giove976]

Investing.com - Una settimana. Tanto è bastato all’oro per scendere dai massimi di 2.000 dollari.

Nella seduta di questo lunedì, un’oncia del metallo giallo sul Comex a New York è tornata nel territorio dei 1.800 dollari.

Intanto il dollaro è volato nelle aspettative che la Federal Reserve alzerà i tassi di 50 punti base durante la sua riunione di maggio la prossima settimana, il doppio rispetto al rialzo di 25 bps di marzo.

Alle 16:18 CEST, il contratto di giugno dei future dell’oro sul Comex scende di 35,85 dollari, o dell’1,9%, a 1.898,45 dollari. Il 18 aprile, l’oro aveva segnato il massimo di sei settimane di 2.003 dollari nei timori di una recessione. L’oro solitamente è uno scudo dai problemi economici e politici.

Vari membri della Fed la scorsa settimana hanno placato i timori dei mercati circa la possibilità che l’economia vada in territorio negativo per il tentativo della Fed di combattere l’inflazione.

Sebbene questi timori non si siano del tutto dissipati, l’ottimismo sembra aver conquistato alcuni dei pessimisti. E il dollaro è schizzato, facendo soffrire l’oro ed altri asset rifugio.

Nella seduta di questo lunedì, l’indice del dollaro, segna il massimo di 25 mesi di 101,745.

I rendimenti dei bond USA, che spesso vanno di pari passo con il dollaro, ultimamente non lo fanno più. Il rendimento dei Treasury decennali scende per il terzo giorno di fila, perdendo quasi il 4% sulla giornata.

 

[giove976]

Apparentemente l'oro sembra un buon posto dove parcheggiare i soldi in questo momento.....ma, come ha sottolineato il Wall Street Journal , la Russia sta esaurendo i mezzi per finanziare la sua macchina da guerra . Pertanto, le riserve auree del paese possono essere un mezzo praticabile per eludere le sanzioni internazionali, soprattutto perché la provenienza dell'oro è difficile da rintracciare . Se la Russia scarica i suoi metalli preziosi, fate attenzione alla volatilità con il metallo giallo.

io oggi ho venduto, con un margine +2,5%, certo non era lo stesso che vendere il giorno di pasquetta con quotazione oltre 2000$, ma a causa del cambio ho acquistato a 1920 e ho venduto a 1910 con gain + e vista l'incertezza non mi è sembrato profittevole rimanere più a lungo.
L'importante è non sbagliare adesso con ingressi a rischio più elevato....

 

[giove976]

Un "qualcosa" ieri ha portato decisamente al rialzo ieri intorno alle 19:45 un rialzo che è stato ripreso poi nella seduta Asiatica,
1.865-1885 dunque dalle 00:30 alle 3:00 si è arrivati a 1.900 e adesso si muove a 1.890
Considerando gli indici americani erano in rialzo ieri sera in chiusura e il $ che ha perso 1centesimi sull'euro, credo che che bisogna attendersi 1.800 a breve, dico bene?

 

[loriamen]

Venerdì, il WGC ha affermato che 43 tonnellate di oro sono confluite nel mercato degli ETF cartacei ad aprile.
Il totale delle partecipazioni globali è a 3.869 tonnellate che sono solo dell'1% al di sotto del massimo storico di 3.922 t nel novembre 2020.

 

[loriamen]

Ecco le previsioni di: Todd 'Bubba' Horwitz Tuesday May 17, 2022 10:17

Gold and Silver push resistance, look for failure​

Gold and Silver are pushing up against resistance, gold at $1,830 and silver at $22. The highest probability is a failure from these levels. In other words, this looks like a selling opportunity. There is no guarantee; however, the probability is the metals will go back and test the recent lows.

You must remember that trading is about probability based on the price action of the time frame you are trading. On any day, anything can happen. It is our objective to trade with the odds in our favor. News is worthless noise and has no bearing on any trade.

Everything and every trade are about the price action, the pattern, and the trend. The discipline to reverse, take a loss and move on are critical. Excuse making, like they are manipulated are anything else are garbage. Price is price; however, it gets there.


Price discovery always plays in all markets; nothing is a surprise. Gold and silver are in solid downtrends. The news we are seeing today has already been priced into the market. Until something changes, precious metals are a short-term sell.

Precious metals should be owned on a physical basis with capital that is not needed tomorrow or anytime soon. Trading should be done with paper, knowing that we can trade either side without emotions.


In all markets, price action determines what will happen in the next day, week, or month. Keep the two strategies separate. The worst trade anyone can make is turning a trade into an investment hoping for a way out. Traders must learn to take their losses and move on to the next trade.

Patience, discipline, and money management always win the day. Let the map of the markets show you the way.

 

[giove976]

Una posizione aperta la settimana scorsa e chiusa venerdì con un piccolo margine positivo.
Ma questo weekend e l'apertura di oggi lunedì, nonostante il rosso a -0,80% attuale, mi avrebbe consentito un margine decisamente migliore, considerato anche che l'ETC che ho tradato è in Euro...
Una situazione alquanto diversa dalle precedenti settimane e dunque inattesa quella attuale....
Indici di borsa in forte ribasso e inattesi,
Titoli di stato delle principali economie mondiali con ulteriori rialzi nei rendimenti
Le principali monete emergenti sembra abbiano invertito l'andamento e dopo la stabilità raggiunta hanno intrapreso la via con un timido ribasso.
USD-Euro nuovamente in "preoccupante" rialzo ....
Pare che l'oro dunque sia relativamente forte e in controtendenza all'usuale equilibrio con la moneta di riferimento.

Quale effetto sui prossimi rialzi dei tassi ?
Potrà essere un indicatore della efficacia della politica monetaria adottata dalle banche centrali?

C'è chi stima che il metallo superi 2000 a fine anno, a me sembra una previsione tragica su scala globale, una tesi ad oggi insostenibile

 

[_soppa_]

Gold & Gold Stocks Weeks From Historic Bottom

Gold and Gold stocks have fallen to levels from which we should see excellent returns over the next 12 months and potentially spectacular over...

thedailygold.com

 

[loriamen]

Gold and silver push lower​

Todd 'Bubba' Horwitz Friday July 08, 2022 09:38

After the early selling this week, gold and silver attempted a rally on Thursday. They have failed to hold any bounce and they should be headed lower. Support for gold at $1,700 and silver at 18 are now in play; there appears to be no buyers.

Today is Jobs Friday which could create a temporary bounce; however, the selling pressure should not subside. A rally would be no surprise, but until the trend changes, all rallies should be sold. The metals have a chance to get ugly which will create an eventual buying opportunity.

The good news for the gold and silver bulls, we could be seeing a cycle low very soon. The best action the bulls could see is a washout with some panic selling to create a bottom.


Although the short-term trend is lower, we expect a bottom in the future. However, the rally won’t be sustainable until the bulls throw in the towel. There is interesting action in all markets; bottoms typically come from fear and panic.

Precious metals should be owned on a physical basis with capital that is not needed tomorrow or anytime soon. Trading should be done with paper, knowing that we can trade either side without emotions.

In all markets, price action determines what will happen in the next day, week, or month. Keep the two strategies separate. The worst trade anyone can make is turning a trade into an investment hoping for a way out. Traders must learn to take their losses and move on to the next trade.

 

[loriamen]

Ed ancora da........

Todd 'Bubba' Horwitz Monday July 11, 2022 09:38

Gold and silver breaking down​

After an attempt to rally on Friday, the sellers have returned in force in gold, silver, and platinum. Many will be calling manipulation, which is laughable; to complete a trade, there must be a buyer and a seller. The strong hands may be putting pressure; however, there are buyers of the metals that would go to zero.

This morning’s action is the last chance to slow the selling, with gold, silver, and platinum all at major support. Failure here would lead to an additional 5-7% down and a possible massive breakdown. Current targets on the downside are 1700 gold, 18 silver and 800 platinum.


Until further notice, traders should focus on selling rallies that reach a resistance level. Resistance levels to sell are 1760 gold, 20 silver, and 920 platinum. Until those levels are reached, the best trade is to observe. Investors that are accumulating could be small quantity buyers on the way down.

Precious metals should be owned on a physical basis with capital that is not needed tomorrow or anytime soon. Trading should be done with paper, knowing that we can trade either side without emotions.


In all markets, price action determines what will happen in the next day, week, or month. Keep the two strategies separate. The worst trade anyone can make is turning a trade into an investment hoping for a way out. Traders must learn to take their losses and move on to the next trade.

 

[loriamen]

Vedo del verde tra i metalli preziosi:

Gold, silver rebound on short covering after hot U.S. CPI

Senior Technical Analyst Jim Wyckoff prepares investors with an overview of how the markets opened and closed. What moved metal prices? How do the technicals look? By looking at important developments

www.kitco.com

U.S. stock indexes are lower at midday, and lost overnight gains after the hot CPI report.

Traders were still buzzing about Tuesday's big downdraft in crude oil futures prices, with Nymex futures falling to a 2.5-month low of $93.67 overnight. Crude's plunge pulled other major commodity market prices down, too. The weakening raw commodity sector is an early clue that inflationary pressures may have peaked.
The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices lower and trading around $95.50 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is weaker and hit a 20-year high early on, following the hot CPI report. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 2.943%.

Technically, August gold futures prices hit an 11-month low early on today and the reversed course to score a bullish “outside day” up on the daily bar chart. Bears still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a four-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $1,800.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $1,700.00. First resistance is seen at today's high of $1,744.30 and then at $1,750.00. First support is seen at $1,721.60 and then at today's low of $1,704.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5

September silver futures prices hit a two-year low Tuesday. The silver bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $20.00 an ounce. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $18.00. First resistance is seen at $19.50 and then at $19.85. Next support is seen at $19.00 and then at this week's low of $18.63. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5.

September N.Y. copper closed up 330 points at 332.05 cents today. Prices closed near the session high and hit a 1.5-year low today. The copper bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. A steep five-week-old price downtrend is in place on the daily bar chart. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 385.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 320.00 cents. First resistance is seen at Tuesday's high of 345.70 cents and then at this week's high of 352.05 cents. First support is seen at today's low of 321.65 cents and then at 315.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0.

By Jim Wyckoff