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Pemex (circa 10 bond in EUR, 2-3 dozzine in USD e in MXN, 4 in CHF e 2 in GBP)

Da Moody's:

NEWS AND ANALYSIS SOVEREIGNS PEMEX's need for sovereign support is credit negative for Mexico Originally published on 22 February 2019 On 15 February, the Government of Mexico (A3 stable) announced that state-owned oil company Petroleos Mexicanos (PEMEX, Baa3 stable) would have access to $3.8 billion in government support measures this year. However, the announcement nets in several already known sources of financing and therefore amounts to only $200 million in fresh financing in the form of tax relief. Additionally, pessimistic market sentiment toward PEMEX, driven by concerns over whether it will be able to meet large 2019 financing needs of around $14 billion, did not improve as a result of announced measures. This suggests further sovereign support may be required. The need to support PEMEX is credit negative for the sovereign: not only will the additional tax relief for PEMEX eat into government revenues, but more importantly, if market sentiment does not improve, PEMEX will require additional sovereign support in 2020 and beyond, further eroding government finances. The details of the support package follow more than a week of public statements suggesting that the government was planning to significantly increase its extraordinary support to PEMEX this year. However, in what came as somewhat of a surprise to markets, the nominal amount of resources in the announcement involved aid that the government had previously announced. This included $528 million in annual tax breaks already announced earlier this year, a capital injection of $1.25 billion this year already included in the 2019 budget, and a swap of $1.8 billion in PEMEX pension-related promissory notes for government bonds that PEMEX can sell in the secondary market to boost its own liquidity, of which the markets were also aware. The only new source of support we can discern is a further $200 million in tax breaks for PEMEX this year. The support package to PEMEX has two credit-negative implications for the sovereign. First, the decreased tax take from PEMEX (a loss of around $750 million annually relative to the government's budget proposal) could compromise government budget targets, as lower transfers from PEMEX to the government challenge tight revenue assumptions incorporated in the government’s budgeted 1% of GDP primary surplus. This increases the risk that fiscal accounts could slip more than anticipated this year. Second, the underwhelming nature of this announcement relative to both market expectations and PEMEX's medium-term financing challenges suggests further support from the sovereign will be required. In fact, the yields of PEMEX’s most heavily traded bond spiked on the heels of the announcement, driving the already prohibitively high cost of market funding for PEMEX higher. Although PEMEX's 2019 financing needs of approximately $14 billion can be met by relying on a combination of cash on hand and use of revolver facilities, the national oil company will need to tap capital markets in 2020 to meet its funding needs. If PEMEX's access to international bond markets remains constrained, this will have direct financial implications for the sovereign as the company would require additional cash transfers or tax breaks. The need for continued – and possibly higher – sovereign support to PEMEX would undermine the sovereign's credit profile. Anna Snyder, Associate Analyst Moody’s Investors Service +1.212.553.4037 Jaime Reusche, VP-Sr Credit Officer Moody’s Investors Service +1.212.553.0358