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Teva (circa 20 bond in Usd, Eur, Chf)

Magician

Well-known member
TEL AVIV, May 3 (Reuters) - Israel's heavily indebted Teva Pharmaceutical Industries on Thursday raised its financial outlook for 2018 after reporting a smaller than expected drop in first-quarter net profit and revenue.

Teva also said that while it does not expect to receive approval for its migraine treatment fremanezumab by mid-June, as had been hoped, it does expect the key drug to gain approval in time for launch before the end of 2018.

The world's largest generic drugmaker said it earned 94 cents per share excluding one-off items in the first three months of the year, down from $1.06 a year ago. Revenue fell 10 percent to $5.1 billion.

Teva's struggles are similar to those of other major generic drugmakers facing price erosion, increased competition and a consolidated customer base, particularly in the United States.

First-quarter sales of its branded multiple sclerosis drug Copaxone, which opened up to generic competition last year, fell 40 percent in North America, where its total generic product sales declined by 23 percent.



RACE TO MARKET

In late 2017 it announced a restructuring to combine its generic and speciality medicine businesses, cut more than a quarter of its workforce and announced the closure or sale of 10 of its factories.

"During this quarter, our strong cash flow allowed us to continue to reduce our outstanding debt and, together with our recent debt issuance and covenant amendment, has placed Teva on a more stable financial footing," said CEO Kare Schultz.



https://www.nasdaq.com/article/teva-raises-2018-outlook-expects-migraine-drug-approval-by-yearend-20180503-00730
 

Magician

Well-known member
After declining sharply in 2017, shares of Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Limited TEVA have picked up pace this year so far. The stock has risen 17% against the industry 's decline of 5.8%.

What's Going in Teva's Favor?
The Israel-based generic drug maker has been facing significant challenges.
This includes accelerated generic competition for its blockbuster multiple sclerosis drug, Copaxone; new competition for branded products, pricing erosion in the U.S. generics business and a massive debt load of more than $30 billion.

Mylan's MYL earlier-than-expected launch of the first generic version of the 40-mg strength of Copaxone in October last year was a major setback for Teva. In the same month, Mylan also launched the second generic version of the 20 mg formulation of Copaxone. The first generic version of the 20 mg formulation has been marketed by Momenta Pharmaceuticals, Inc. MNTA and Sandoz - Novartis' NVS generic arm - since 2015

With the entry of the generic version of the 40 mg formulation and the entry of a second generic version of the 20 mg formulation, there has been rapid erosion in sales of Copaxone. Moreover, a second generic version of the 40 mg formulation (Glatopa) was launched by Sandoz in February this year, much earlier than its scheduled launch in April.

However, Teva has undertaken some strategic and restructuring initiatives to revive growth.

The company divested some non-core assets last year (mainly in the Women's Health business) to cut its significant debt load. It also has a new organizational structure in place, is closing plants, cutting down its generics portfolio, eliminating low-value R&D projects, and aims to cut its global workforce by more than 25% over the next two years as part of a restructuring plan it revealed in December. Teva is progressing well on these re-structuring activities and still expects to save almost $3 billion by the end of 2019 from these initiatives.

Its financial position also seems more stable than before as it is regularly paying down debt.

Earlier this month, Teva announced its first-quarter 2018 results, beating expectations for both earnings and sales while also raising its full-year outlook for both the metrics

The stock also got an impetus recently, after Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway revealed that it has doubled its investment in the company in the first quarter. Berkshire said it owned about 40.5 million Teva American depositary receipts (ADRs) at the end of March, up from 18.9 million ADRs at the end of 2017.

Earnings estimates for 2018 and 2019 increased a respective 9.5% and 4% over the past 30 days.

Teva currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold)


https://www.nasdaq.com/article/teva-teva-stock-up-17-ytd-after-a-dismal-2017-heres-why-cm969897
 

accident

Well-known member
grazie Magician di aver condiviso il report.
penso che Teva sia sulla strada giusta per ritornare nel prossimo biennio tra gli emittenti " investment grade".
sono ottimista.
 

stefano

New member
grazie Magician di aver condiviso il report.
penso che Teva sia sulla strada giusta per ritornare nel prossimo biennio tra gli emittenti " investment grade".
sono ottimista.
Prezioso Imark, come vedi il "futuro" in termini di solidità finanziaria di teva?

Sto valutando l'ingresso nel "bond 2026 Usd callable 3,15% US88167AAE10". Quale e' secondo te una buona alternativa, sempre come bond Teva in dollari, di piu' breve durata quotata su mercati regolamentati?

Con stima, grazie anticipatamente,
stefano
 

Imark

Administrator
Membro dello Staff
Prezioso Imark, come vedi il "futuro" in termini di solidità finanziaria di teva?

Sto valutando l'ingresso nel "bond 2026 Usd callable 3,15% US88167AAE10". Quale e' secondo te una buona alternativa, sempre come bond Teva in dollari, di piu' breve durata quotata su mercati regolamentati?

Con stima, grazie anticipatamente,
stefano
Per ora - guardo ai risultati Q1/2018 - stanno andando avanti nel piano di ristrutturazione, tagliando il capex, migliorando la generazione di cassa, prepagando il debito (soprattutto quello in mano alle banche, ma non solo), riducendo il leverage. Calano i ricavi, sebbene aiutati dall'effetto del cambio.

Per l'intero 2018 hanno rivisto al rialzo le stime di tutti i risultati: ricavi, EBITDA, free cash flow, eps (pdf trimestrale pag. 23). Faranno 3 mld $ di free cash flow quest'anno ed è un dato confortante

Gli sta andando meglio del previsto soprattutto con il copexone (leggi il primo post del 3D) visto che i competitori che hanno lanciato versioni generiche stanno avendo difficoltà ad affermarle, sia per problemi loro, sia per la scelta di Teva di provare a difendere le quote di mercato abbassando i prezzi. Però è una "vittoria" temporanea, e comunque il valore delle vendite trimestrali di questo farmaco in Usa è calato del 40% in un paio di trimestri (pdf trimestrale pag. 18)

A me pare stiano facendo bene nel breve termine, devono riuscire ad avere successo con l'approvazione dei nuovi farmaci branded in pipeline perché si possa avere più visibilità di lungo periodo, e nel mentre un debito che resta consistente e va rifinanziato costituisce un rischio in fasi di incertezza del mercato dei capitali.

Oltre al link dove trovi la trimestrale Q1/2018 quello ad un articolo trovato su seeking alpha e riguardante le prospettive dei farmaci di Teva, in commercio ed in sviluppo

http://ir.tevapharm.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=73925&p=irol-presentations

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4185265-teva-investors-split-outlook-near-term-outlook-bad-longer-term-concerns-remain

Bond: se guardi alla struttura del debito (ultima pagina del pdf) ti rendi conto che gli anni eventualmente problematici verranno presto, sono il 2020, 2021 e 2023 soprattutto, e poi il 2026, per la consistenza delle scadenze debitorie.

Se si va oltre i primi anni è opportuno tenere d'occhio da vicino quello che accade con i farmaci, specie con quelli in via di approvazione
 

Magician

Well-known member
Il riposizionamento iniziato con la crisi di un anno fa sta procedendo ed i risultati si vedono, sia in termini di andamento borsistico che di nuove licenze strategiche.


Shares of Teva Pharmaceutical Industries LimitedTEVA rose 7.3% on Thursday after the FDA announced approval for the Israeli drugmaker's generic version of Mylan's MYL popular EpiPen (epinephrine) auto-injector for severe allergy treatment.
Teva's shares have risen 15.4% this year so far compared with the industry 's increase of 4.9%.

L'intero articolo:
https://www.nasdaq.com/article/teva-gets-fda-nod-for-first-generic-version-of-mylans-epipen-cm1009281


Alcuni titoli presenti su EuroTLX (compreso un certificato)
https://www.eurotlx.com/it/strumenti/ricerca-avanzata?isinname=teva&redirect=1
 
Ultima modifica:

balcarlo

New member
Oggi il TEVA 26 NTS 3.15 US88167AAE10 in usd ha fatto un ultimo scambio ad 83,74 ed il rendimento netto su base annua è un discreto 4,84%, il rating non è eccelso ma comunque da monitorare…..
 

Magician

Well-known member
Oggi il TEVA 26 NTS 3.15 US88167AAE10 in usd ha fatto un ultimo scambio ad 83,74 ed il rendimento netto su base annua è un discreto 4,84%, il rating non è eccelso ma comunque da monitorare…..


La società è in una fase di riposizionamento, dopo aver subito due anni terribili, che hanno inciso anche sul rating.

IMHO operativamente per chi usa EuroTLX e non ha fretta, visto lo spread denaro-lettera sempre ampio durante il giorno, suggerirei di mettersi a metà mercato.
Il taglio è $2.000 oppure €100.000


Un brevissimo commento di un analista azionario:

A turnaround story

Todd Campbell ( Teva Pharmaceutical): Teva Pharmaceutical's investors suffered setbacks following the company's nearly $40 billion acquisition of Allergan 's (NYSE: AGN) generic drug business; the launch of a competing biosimilar to its best-selling drug, Copaxone, by Mylan (NASDAQ: MYL) ; and pushback on pricing.

However, there's reason to believe this company is worth adding to portfolios. The company's price-to-book and price-to-sales ratios remain near their lowest levels since 2000, despite a recent run-up due to Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.B) buying shares .

Berkshire Hathaway is known for its bargain-hunting savvy, and although Teva Pharmaceutical's shares have rallied 80% since Berkshire first added Teva Pharmaceutical to its portfolio, Berkshire Hathaway still bought 2.7 million shares of it in the second quarter.

Clearly, there's hope that Teva's struggles will prove temporary. A restructuring to improve profitability that's expected to wrap up next year should save $3 billion annually, and although Copaxone will be a drag on revenue because of new competition, Teva Pharmaceutical has a decision coming up in September from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration on a migraine drug, and phase 3 results on a pain drug are also expected soon.

Importantly, demographic tailwinds supporting demand for generic drugs are improving. Seniors fill two times the prescriptions of younger Americans, and aging baby boomers are forecast to nearly double the over-65 population in the U.S. by 2050. If so, Teva Pharmaceutical's generic drug sales should benefit.

It's anyone's guess if Teva Pharmaceutical's restructuring will succeed or how long Berkshire Hathaway will hold onto its shares, but I think the odds of this being a profit-friendly investment for long-term investors are good enough to add this company to portfolios.

https://www.nasdaq.com/article/3-growth-stocks-at-deep-value-prices-cm1016833
 
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Magician

Well-known member
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/investors-undervaluing-teva-pharmaceutical-industries-184306292.html?.tsrc=rss&guccounter=1

Does the share price for Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Limited (NYSE:TEVA) reflect it’s really worth? Today, I will calculate the stock’s intrinsic value by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. I will be using the Discounted Cash Flows (DCF) model. Don’t get put off by the jargon, the math behind it is actually quite straightforward. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model. Please also note that this article was written in September 2018 so be sure check out the updated calculation by following the link below.
See our latest analysis for Teva Pharmaceutical Industries
Is TEVA fairly valued?
We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second ‘steady growth’ period. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next five years. For this I used the consensus of the analysts covering the stock, as you can see below. The sum of these cash flows is then discounted to today’s value.
5-year cash flow forecast
2019
2020 2021 2022 2023 Levered FCF ($, Millions) $3.75k $4.00k $3.69k $3.74k $3.83k Source Analyst x3 Analyst x2 Analyst x1 Analyst x1 Est @ 2.45% Present Value Discounted @ 13.99% $3.29k $3.08k $2.49k $2.21k $1.99k
Present Value of 5-year Cash Flow (PVCF)= US$13.06b
The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business’s cash flow after the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at an annual growth rate equal to the 10-year government bond rate of 2.9%. We discount this to today’s value at a cost of equity of 14%.
Terminal Value (TV) = FCF2022 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$3.83b × (1 + 2.9%) ÷ (14% – 2.9%) = US$35.68b
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV) = TV / (1 + r)5 = US$35.68b ÷ ( 1 + 14%)5 = US$18.54b
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the cash flows, which in this case is US$31.60b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding, or the equivalent number if this is a depositary receipt or ADR. This results in an intrinsic value of $31.03. Relative to the current share price of $21.88, the stock is about right, perhaps slightly undervalued at a 29.5% discount to what it is available for right now.

NYSE:TEVA Intrinsic Value Export September 12th 18

Important assumptions

Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. You don’t have to agree with my inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. Because we are looking at Teva Pharmaceutical Industries as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighed average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation I’ve used 14%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.566. This is derived from the Bottom-Up Beta method based on comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
Next Steps:
Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it shouldn’t be the only metric you look at when researching a company. What is the reason for the share price to differ from the intrinsic value? For TEVA, I’ve put together three essential factors you should look at:

  1. Financial Health: Does TEVA have a healthy balance sheet? Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis with six simple checks on key factors like leverage and risk.
  2. Future Earnings: How does TEVA’s growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
  3. Other High Quality Alternatives: Are there other high quality stocks you could be holding instead of TEVA? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
 

Magician

Well-known member
Wall Street will be looking for positivity from TEVA as it approaches its next earnings report date. This is expected to be November 1, 2018. The company is expected to report EPS of $0.55, down 45% from the prior-year quarter. Meanwhile, our latest consensus estimate is calling for revenue of $4.57 billion, down 18.51% from the prior-year quarter.
TEVA's full-year Zacks Consensus Estimates are calling for earnings of $2.79 per share and revenue of $18.91 billion. These results would represent year-over-year changes of -30.42% and -15.52%, respectively.

It is also important to note the recent changes to analyst estimates for TEVA. Recent revisions tend to reflect the latest near-term business trends. As such, positive estimate revisions reflect analyst optimism about the company's business and profitability.


https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/329536/teva-pharmaceutical-industries-ltd-teva-gains-as-market-dips-what-you-should-know
 

Magician

Well-known member
https://www.nasdaq.com/article/teva-teva-beats-on-q3-earnings-lags-sales-shares-up-cm1047950

Israel-based Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd.TEVA is a global pharmaceutical company with a strong presence in the generics as well as branded markets. The company's branded products include Copaxone (multiple sclerosis), Azilect (Parkinson's disease), Austedo (chorea associated with Huntington's disease and tardive dyskinesia) and respiratory products like ProAir and Qvar.
Teva is facing significant challenges in the form of accelerated generic competition for Copaxone, new competition for branded products, pricing erosion in the U.S. generics business, lower-than-expected contribution from new generic launches and a massive debt load. Nonetheless, Teva is progressing well on its strategic/restructuring initiatives to revive growth.
Teva's earnings surpassed expectations in three of the last four quarters, resulting in an average positive surprise of 16.18%.
Currently, TEVA has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), but that could definitely change following the company's earnings report which was just released. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here .
We have highlighted some of the key stats from this just-revealed announcement below:
Earnings Beat: Teva's third-quarter earnings came in at 68 cents per share which beat consensus estimate of 55 cents.
Revenues Miss: Teva posted revenues of $4.53 billion, which missed consensus estimates of $4.58 billion. Sales declined 19% (down 18% in constant currency terms) year over year.
Key Statistics : North America segment sales were $2.27 billion, down 26% year over year due to pricing erosion in U.S. generics market, lower sales of Copaxone as well as some other branded drugs and divestiture of some non-core assets in the Women's Health business. In the United States, revenues declined 27% to $2.1 billion.
Lead branded product, Copaxone, posted sales of $463 million in North America, down 43% year over year due to generic competition for the 20 mg as well as the 40 mg formulation. Sales of generic products declined 25% to $922 million.
The Europe segment recorded revenues of $1.21 billion, down 12% (down 11% in constant currency terms) year over year. In the International Markets segments, sales declined 12% in constant currency terms.
2018 Outlook Up : Teva tightened its 2018 sales guidance while raising the earnings outlook. The revenue outlook was raised from a range of $18.5 - $19.0 billion to $18.6 - $19.0 billion. Meanwhile, the earnings guidance was raised from a band of $2.55-2.80 per share to $2.80-2.95 per share.
 

Magician

Well-known member
Io ho questa US88167AAE10 Descrizione Teva Pharma Fin Iii 3.15% Call 01ot26

Non vorrei sembrare ottimista, come come già scritto un po' di tempo fa, il piano di rilancio sta procedendo secondo le tappe e se continua così nel secondo semestre 2019 c'è la possibilità di revisione del rating al rialzo.
 

stefano

New member
grazie.. si, lo stesso titolo che ho io (dopo che buffett ha incrementato... mi sono convinto),
Un saluto .. (e ancora complimenti all'ottimo Imark, anche per aver "attirato" nel blog forumisti con ottima preparazione, da cui imparo)
 

Magician

Well-known member
Generic worries hit Teva

Teva Pharmaceutical Industries saw its stock close lower by 5% on news that government regulators might take aim at expanding allegations of price fixing among manufacturers of generic drugs. A key lawsuit from several state attorneys general that initially focused on just a small number of drugs has reportedly expanded to cover hundreds of different treatments, according to The Washington Post , and allegations include high-priced meals and events at which key executives traded information to help their companies collude on prices for various drugs. Some investors fear that a probe could now result in greater attention from federal officials, and that could mean more risk for Teva and its peers.


https://www.nasdaq.com/article/why-teva-pharmaceutical-industries-tivity-health-and-marine-products-slumped-today-cm1067174
 

Magician

Well-known member
The last few years for drug-maker Teva Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: TEVA ) haven't exactly been that wonderful. TEVA stock has plunged on a series of mishaps and issues. In fact, TEVA has fallen enough that America's favorite value investor, Warren Buffett, has taken a huge interest in the stock over the last few quarters. And the interest is growing as the Oracle of Omaha continues to up that stake.

But with a new government probe and the hints of a massive cartel related to generic drug prices, the question is whether or not Buffett and his disciples are making a huge mistake. Could TEVA not be the value people think it is? Is there more pain ahead for the maker of generic drugs?
Or could the latest leg down be a huge opportunity for more buying?
A Rocky Year For TEVA Stock
The problems for Teva started over a year ago and like many firms, the issue is Debt - with a capital "D." In a bid to become the world's largest generic drugs maker, Teva took on roughly $40.5 billion in debt to buy Allergan's (NASDAQ: AGN ) generic-drug business. The move was done to help limit losses on declining sales for Teva's top-selling drugs like Copaxone. On the surface, the buyout seemed great. But like many M&A actions, it was made at the near top of the market for generic drugs. The irony is that Copaxone fell victim to generic competition fromMylan (NYSE: MYL ) itself.
As a result, pricing on generics plunged and cash flows at TEVA dried up.
The drugmaker was forced to slash its dividend by 75% and then cut it entirely to help pay back that debt load. Teva launched a huge initiative to cut costs, turn itself around and boost profitability and cash flows. During this time, the dip in the stock proved too juicy for Warren Buffett and through Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.A ), the value investor took a huge stake in the stock.
And he kept on buying. As the end of the second quarter , Berkshire now owns roughly 43.2 million shares of TEVA stock - an increase of 4.3% over what it held during the first three months of the year. The good news for Buffett and investors is that TEVA's turnaround seems to be working.
The cuts at Teva have started to chip away at that massive debt load . By the end of 2019, various layoffs and CAPEX cuts are expected to save the firm about $3 billion in operating expenses. Meanwhile, free cash flows are predicted to jump by 11% to hit a high of $3.8 billion. All of this has helped reduce its debt immensely. After peaking in 2016, total long-term debt at TEVA has fallen by 25% and now sits at just $29.5 billion. Not a small number, but proof that the turnaround is working.
TEVA Gets Hit Again
With that, TEVA stock surged - more than 20% from this year's lows - on a wave of optimism and Buffett's buying. Moreover, analysts are now predicting that the drug maker may actually be able to start paying a token dividend again based on its results.
The problem is, the government may be throwing a huge wrench into TEVA's turnaround.
One of the reasons for the increased cash flows at Teva is that generic drug prices have started to rebound. That's great news when combined with the operating cuts. However, the Feds aren't too happy with the "why?" According to a new report in the Washington Post, the government has probed generic drug manufacturers in running a cartel dubbed "The Sandbox" in which executives at drug producers ate lavish steak dinners and fixed prices on more than 300 generic drugs. The 16 firms accused include some of the biggest in the industry: Mylan, Dr. Reddy's Laboratories (NYSE: RDY ) and of course, TEVA. In a court filing, Teva said that the allegations of a price-fixing conspiracy "are entirely conclusory and devoid of any facts."
The problem is, the lawsuit and probe are a big deal for TEVA on a number of fronts.

Teva's whole turnaround is built on improving cash flows and it needs as much cash as it can get its hands on. Fines and penalties will reduce the amount of cash it has to work with and pay down its mega-sized debt load. That will push back its turnaround far down the runway. And we don't exactly know what/how regulators are going to act in the lawsuit. According to the probe, some generic's - such as Mylan's asthma medication - surged more than 3,400%. But even small amounts over several years could equate to billions of dollars. Investigators could be going for the jugular here.
Meanwhile, any restrictions on generic pricing models could limit the growth potential at Teva and its peers. Again, hitting its cash flows and turnaround plans.
No wonder why shares of the firm dropped more than 5% when the news broke.
TEVA Stock Might Be A Hold
The question is, is Buffett buying and should you be as well? While the effects of the lawsuit could be years away, it's a huge risk to Teva's bottom line and ability to get its cash flows moving again. That's a problem as it's the main thesis for the stock right now. And with the probe really getting started, there could be much more downside still left in TEVA stock as new information is made public.
With that, Teva may be a solid hold and a future watchlist candidate.
https://www.nasdaq.com/article/should-warren-buffett-and-you-buy-more-teva-stock-right-now-cm1069156
 
Alto